Shi, Qian

SummaryProgression‐free survival (PFS) has been the regulatory primary end‐point for recent phase III trials in first‐line follicular lymphoma (FL), but requires prolonged follow‐up. Complete response (CR) at 30 months after initiation of induction treatment was validated as surrogate end‐point for PFS. Our objective was to further evaluate surrogacy of CR measured by [18F] fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG) positron emission tomography (PET) imaging at the end of induction (EoI). Individual patient data were analysed from 1505 patients from five randomized trials. Trial‐level surrogacy examining the association between treatment effects on EoI‐PET‐CR and PFS was evaluated using linear regression () and bivariate Copula () models. Although EoI‐PET‐CR strongly predicted PFS at a prognostic level, the trial‐level assessment did not show strong correlation (, confidence interval [CI]: 0.20–0.88; , CI: 0.0–0.82). The high uncertainty in estimation was possibly due to the small number of trials and the population of patients with available PET data. Maintenance therapy affecting PFS beyond induction treatment, but not EoI‐PET‐CR end‐point, may have distorted the association between treatment effects. However, there will probably be a number of additional trials approaching completion with available PET response data. Refined evaluation of PET‐CR based surrogate end‐points is still warranted.

Abstract Observational studies and stand-alone trials indicate that patients with follicular lymphoma (FL) who experience disease progression within 24 months of front-line chemoimmunotherapy (POD24), have poor outcomes. We performed a pooled analysis of 13 randomized clinical trials of patients with FL in the pre- and postrituximab eras to identify clinical factors that predict POD24. Logistic regression models evaluated the association between clinical factors and POD24. Cox regression evaluated the association between POD24 as a time-dependent factor and subsequent overall survival (OS). A landmark analysis evaluated the association of POD24 with OS for the subset of patients who were alive at 24 months after trial registration. Patients without progression at 24 months at baseline had favorable performance status (PS), limited-stage (I/II) disease, low-risk FL International Prognostic Index (FLIPI) score, normal baseline hemoglobin, and normal baseline β2 microglobulin (B2M) level. In a multivariable logistic regression model, male sex (odds ratio [OR], 1.30), PS ≥2 (OR, 1.63), B2M (≥3 mg/L; OR, 1.43), and high-risk FLIPI score (3-5; OR, 3.14) were associated with increased risk of progression before 24 months. In the time-dependent Cox model and the 24-month landmark analysis, POD24 was associated with poor subsequent OS (hazard ratio, 4.85 and 3.06, respectively). This is the largest pooled analysis of clinical trials data validating POD24 as a robust indicator of poor FL survival and identified clinical predictors of early death and progression that can aid in building comprehensive prognostic models incorporating clinical and molecular predictors of POD24.

Abstract Background We evaluated the time to progression (TTP) and survival outcomes of second-line therapy for metastatic colorectal cancer among adults aged 70 years and older compared with younger adults following progression on first-line clinical trials. Methods Associations between clinical and disease characteristics, time to initial progression, and rate of receipt of second-line therapy were evaluated. TTP and overall survival (OS) were compared between older and younger adults in first- and second-line trials by Cox regression, adjusting for age, sex, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group Performance Status, number of metastatic sites and presence of metastasis in the lung, liver, or peritoneum. All statistical tests were 2-sided. Results Older adults comprised 16.4% of patients on first-line trials (870 total older adults aged >70 years; 4419 total younger adults aged ≤70 years, on first-line trials). Older adults and those with Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group Performance Status >0 were less likely to receive second-line therapy than younger adults. Odds of receiving second-line therapy decreased by 11% for each additional decade of life in multivariable analysis (odds ratio = 1.11, 95% confidence interval = 1.02 to 1.21, P = .01). Older and younger adults enrolled in second-line trials experienced similar median TTP and median OS (median TTP = 5.1 vs 5.2 months, respectively; median OS = 11.6 vs 12.4 months, respectively). Conclusions Older adults were less likely to receive second-line therapy for metastatic colorectal cancer, though we did not observe a statistical difference in survival outcomes vs younger adults following second-line therapy. Further study should examine factors affecting decisions to treat older adults with second-line therapy. Inclusion of geriatric assessment may provide better criteria regarding the risks and benefits of second-line therapy.

Purpose Clinical-pathologic features and natural history of patients with isocitrate dehydrogenase ( IDH)-mutant intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (CCA) are not well characterized. Here, we sought to describe the natural history, clinical phenotype, and prognostic impact of advanced, IDH-mutated CCA. METHODS We conducted a multicentric, retrospective analysis of patients with IDH-mutated (IDH1 or IDH2) CCA between 2010 and 2020. Median overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) analyses were performed using the Kaplan-Meier method. Chi-square test was used to analyze disease control rate (DCR) and overall response rate (ORR). Matched controls were used for comparing survival between patients with and without IDH mutations (mIDH). RESULTS Sixty-five patients with IDH-mutated CCA were included. All patients had intrahepatic CCA. On first-line chemotherapy, median OS and median PFS were 21.2 months and 8.3 months, respectively. Notably, median OS (32.4 v 19.5 months, P = .12) and PFS (18.0 v 8.0 months, P = .12) were not significantly affected by disease status at presentation (locally advanced v metastatic, respectively). Median OS was significantly longer in patients with mIDH (21.2 v 10.5 months; P < .01). First-line gemcitabine-containing regimens had a significantly higher DCR and ORR than non–gemcitabine-containing regimens (DCR: 75% v 33%, P = .01; ORR: 39% v 0%, P = .02). In patients receiving IDH inhibitor therapy, median PFS was 4.6 months with a DCR of 29%. CONCLUSION CCA with m IDH confers a unique subtype resulting in a better survival compared with that of counterparts. IDH inhibitors represent a promising therapeutic option in later lines of therapy in this subgroup.

Abstract Meta-analysis based on individual participant data (IPD) is a powerful methodology for synthesizing evidence by combining information drawn from multiple trials. Hitherto, its principal application has been in questions of clinical management, but an increasingly important use is in clarifying trials methodology, for instance in the selection of endpoints, as discussed in this review. In oncology, the Aide et Recherche en Cancérologie Digestive (ARCAD) Metastatic Colorectal Cancer Database is a leader in the use of IPD-based meta-analysis in methodological research. The ARCAD database contains IPD from more than 38 000 patients enrolled in 46 studies and continues to collect phase III trial data. Here, we review the principal findings of the ARCAD project in respect of endpoint selection and examine their implications for cancer trials. Analysis of the database has confirmed that progression-free survival (PFS) is no longer a valid surrogate endpoint predictive of overall survival in the first-line treatment of colorectal cancer. Nonetheless, PFS remains an endpoint of choice for most first-line trials in metastatic colorectal cancer and other solid tumors. Only substantial PFS effects are likely to translate into clinically meaningful benefits, and accordingly, we advocate an oncology research model designed to identify highly effective treatments in carefully defined patient groups. We also review the use of the ARCAD database in assessing clinical response including novel response metrics and prognostic markers. These studies demonstrate the value of IPD as a tool for methodological studies and provide a reference point for the expansion of this approach within clinical cancer research.

PURPOSE Early-onset (EO) colorectal cancer (CRC, age < 50 years) incidence is increasing. Decisions on optimal adjuvant therapy should consider treatment adherence, adverse events, and expected outcomes in a population with life expectancy longer than later-onset (LO) CRC (age ≥ 50 years). MATERIALS AND METHODS Individual patient data from six trials in the International Duration Evaluation of Adjuvant Chemotherapy database were analyzed. Characteristics, treatment adherence, and adverse events in stage II or III EO-CRC and LO-CRC were compared. To reduce confounders of non–cancer-related deaths because of age or comorbidities, time to recurrence (3-year relapse-free rate) and cancer-specific survival (5-year cancer-specific mortality rate) were considered. RESULTS Out of 16,349 patients, 1,564 (9.6%) had EO-CRC. Compared with LO-CRC, EO-CRC had better performance status (86% v 80%, P < .01), similar T stage (% T1-3/T4: 76/24 v 77/23, P = .97), higher N2 disease rate (24% v 22%, P < .01), more likely to complete the planned treatment duration (83.2% v 78.2%, P < .01), and received a higher treatment dose intensity, especially with 6-month regimens. Gastrointestinal toxicity was more common in EO-CRC; hematologic toxicity was more frequent in LO-CRC. Compared with LO-CRC, significantly worse cancer-specific outcomes were demonstrated especially in high-risk stage III EO-CRC: lower 3-year relapse-free rate (54% v 65%; hazard ratio [HR] 1.33; 95% CI, 1.14 to 1.55; P value < .001) and higher 5-year cancer-specific mortality rate (24% v 20%; HR 1.21; 95% CI, 1.00 to 1.47; P value < .06). In this subgroup, no difference was observed with 3 or 6 months of therapy, with equally poor disease-free survival rates (57% v 56%; HR 0.97; 95% CI, 0.73 to 1.29; P value = .85). CONCLUSION Young age is negatively prognostic in high-risk stage III CRC and associated with significantly higher relapse rate; this is despite better treatment adherence and higher administered treatment intensity, suggesting more aggressive disease biology.

Abstract Background Disease-free survival (DFS) with a 3-year median follow-up (3-year DFS) was validated as a surrogate for overall survival (OS) with a 5-year median follow-up (5-year OS) in adjuvant chemotherapy colon cancer (CC) trials. Recent data show further improvements in OS and survival after recurrence in patients who received adjuvant FOLFOX. Hence, reevaluation of the association between DFS and OS and determination of the optimal follow-up duration of OS to aid its utility in future adjuvant trials are needed. Methods Individual patient data from 9 randomized studies conducted between 1998 and 2009 were included; 3 trials tested biologics. Trial-level surrogacy examining the correlation of treatment effect estimates of 3-year DFS with 5 to 6.5-year OS was evaluated using both linear regression (RWLS2) and Copula bivariate (RCopula2) models and reported with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). For R2, a value closer to 1 indicates a stronger correlation. Results Data from a total of 18 396 patients were analyzed (median age = 59 years; 54.0% male), with 54.1% having low-risk tumors (T1-3 and N1), 31.6% KRAS mutated, 12.3% BRAF mutated, and 12.4% microsatellite instability high or deficient mismatch repair tumors. Trial-level correlation between 3-year DFS and 5-year OS remained strong (RWLS2 = 0.82, 95% CI = 0.67 to 0.98; RCopula2 = 0.92, 95% CI = 0.83 to 1.00) and increased as the median follow-up of OS extended. Analyses limited to trials that tested biologics showed consistent results. Conclusions Three-year DFS remains a validated surrogate endpoint for 5-year OS in adjuvant CC trials. The correlation was likely strengthened with 6 years of follow-up for OS.

AbstractBackgroundAdipocyte-derived adiponectin may play a role in the host inflammatory response to cancer. We examined the association of plasma adiponectin with the density of tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes (TILs) in colon cancers and with vitamin D, clinicopathological features, and patient survival.MethodsPlasma adiponectin and 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D] were analyzed by radioimmunoassay in 600 patients with stage III colon cancer who received FOLFOX-based adjuvant chemotherapy (NCCTG N0147 [Alliance]). TIL densities were determined in histopathological sections. Associations with disease-free survival (DFS), time to recurrence, and overall survival were evaluated by multivariable Cox regression adjusting for potential confounders (ie, body mass index, race, TILs, and N stage). All statistical tests were 2-sided.ResultsWe found a statistically significant reduction in adiponectin, but not 25(OH)D, levels in tumors with high vs low TIL densities (median = 6845 vs 8984 ng/mL; P = .04). A statistically significant reduction in adiponectin was also observed in obese (body mass index &gt;30 kg/m2) vs nonobese patients (median = 6608 vs 12 351 ng/mL; P &lt; .001), in men vs women (median = 8185 vs 11 567 ng/mL; P &lt; .001), in Blacks vs Whites or Asians (median = 6412 vs 8847 vs 7858 ng/mL; P &lt; .03), and in those with fewer lymph node metastases (N1 vs N2: median = 7768 vs 9253 ng/mL; P = .01). Insufficiency of 25(OH)D (&lt;30 ng/mL) was detected in 291 (48.5%) patients. In multivariable analyses, neither adiponectin nor 25(OH)D were associated with a statistically significant difference in DFS, overall survival , or time to recurrence in models adjusted for potential confounders. We found a statistically significant association of TILs with prognosis, yet no such interaction was observed for the association of adiponectin with TILs for DFS.ConclusionsLower circulating adiponectin levels were associated with a statistically significant increase in TIL densities in colon cancers, indicating an enhanced antitumor immune response. In contrast to TILs, neither adiponectin nor 25(OH)D was independently prognostic.

Objective: Compare oncological long-term and short-term outcomes between patients with distal cT2NO rectal cancer treated with chemoradio-therapy and local excision (CRT + LE) and patients treated with total mesorectal excision (TME). Summary Background Data: Previous studies showed that CRT + LE is equivalent to TME in local tumor control and survival for T2N0 rectal cancer. Methods: Seventy-nine patients with cT2N0 rectal adenocarcinoma treated with CRT + LE in the ACOSOG Z6041 trial were compared to a cohort of 79 patients with pT2N0 tumors treated with upfront TME in the Dutch TME trial. Survival, short-term outcomes, and health-related quality of life (HRQOL) were compared between groups. Results: Three patients (4%) in the CRT + LE group required abdominoperineal resection, compared with 31 (40%) in the TME group. Forty TME patients (51%) required a permanent stoma. CRT-related toxicity occurred in 43% of the CRT + LE patients; however, TME patients had a higher rate of complications requiring reoperation (1 vs 9%; P = 0.03). Five-year disease-free survival {88.2% [confidence interval (CI), 77.7%–93.9%] vs 88.3% [CI, 78.7%–93.7%]; P = 0.88} and overall survival [90.3% (CI, 80.8%–95.3%) vs 88.4% (CI, 78.9%–93.8%); P = 0.82] were similar in the 2 groups. Compared to baseline, overall HRQOL decreased in the CRT + LE group and improved in the TME group. In both groups, patients with sphincter preservation had worse HRQOL scores 1 year after surgery. Conclusions: In patients who underwent CRT + LE, oncological outcomes were similar to those of patients who underwent TME, with fewer complications requiring reoperation but significant CRT toxicity. Although overall HRQOL decreased in the CRT + LE group and improved in TME patients, when considering anorectal function, results were worse in both groups.