Cannon-Albright, Lisa A

Abstract Background: A polygenic hazard score (PHS), the weighted sum of 54 SNP genotypes, was previously validated for association with clinically significant prostate cancer and for improved prostate cancer screening accuracy. Here, we assess the potential impact of PHS-informed screening. Methods: United Kingdom population incidence data (Cancer Research United Kingdom) and data from the Cluster Randomized Trial of PSA Testing for Prostate Cancer were combined to estimate age-specific clinically significant prostate cancer incidence (Gleason score ≥7, stage T3–T4, PSA ≥10, or nodal/distant metastases). Using HRs estimated from the ProtecT prostate cancer trial, age-specific incidence rates were calculated for various PHS risk percentiles. Risk-equivalent age, when someone with a given PHS percentile has prostate cancer risk equivalent to an average 50-year-old man (50-year-standard risk), was derived from PHS and incidence data. Positive predictive value (PPV) of PSA testing for clinically significant prostate cancer was calculated using PHS-adjusted age groups. Results: The expected age at diagnosis of clinically significant prostate cancer differs by 19 years between the 1st and 99th PHS percentiles: men with PHS in the 1st and 99th percentiles reach the 50-year-standard risk level at ages 60 and 41, respectively. PPV of PSA was higher for men with higher PHS-adjusted age. Conclusions: PHS provides individualized estimates of risk-equivalent age for clinically significant prostate cancer. Screening initiation could be adjusted by a man's PHS. Impact: Personalized genetic risk assessments could inform prostate cancer screening decisions.

ABSTRACTRare variants (RVs) have been shown to be significant contributors to complex disease risk. By definition, these variants have very low minor allele frequencies and traditional single‐marker methods for statistical analysis are underpowered for typical sequencing study sample sizes. Multimarker burden‐type approaches attempt to identify aggregation of RVs across case‐control status by analyzing relatively small partitions of the genome, such as genes. However, it is generally the case that the aggregative measure would be a mixture of causal and neutral variants, and these omnibus tests do not directly provide any indication of which RVs may be driving a given association. Recently, Bayesian variable selection approaches have been proposed to identify RV associations from a large set of RVs under consideration. Although these approaches have been shown to be powerful at detecting associations at the RV level, there are often computational limitations on the total quantity of RVs under consideration and compromises are necessary for large‐scale application. Here, we propose a computationally efficient alternative formulation of this method using a probit regression approach specifically capable of simultaneously analyzing hundreds to thousands of RVs. We evaluate our approach to detect causal variation on simulated data and examine sensitivity and specificity in instances of high RV dimensionality as well as apply it to pathway‐level RV analysis results from a prostate cancer (PC) risk case‐control sequencing study. Finally, we discuss potential extensions and future directions of this work.

Circulating insulin‐like growth factors (IGFs) and their binding proteins (IGFBPs) are associated with prostate cancer. Using genetic variants as instruments for IGF peptides, we investigated whether these associations are likely to be causal. We identified from the literature 56 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in the IGF axis previously associated with biomarker levels (8 from a genome‐wide association study [GWAS] and 48 in reported candidate genes). In ∼700 men without prostate cancer and two replication cohorts (N ∼ 900 and ∼9,000), we examined the properties of these SNPS as instrumental variables (IVs) for IGF‐I, IGF‐II, IGFBP‐2 and IGFBP‐3. Those confirmed as strong IVs were tested for association with prostate cancer risk, low (< 7) vs. high (≥ 7) Gleason grade, localised vs. advanced stage, and mortality, in 22,936 controls and 22,992 cases. IV analysis was used in an attempt to estimate the causal effect of circulating IGF peptides on prostate cancer. Published SNPs in the IGFBP1/IGFBP3 gene region, particularly rs11977526, were strong instruments for IGF‐II and IGFBP‐3, less so for IGF‐I. Rs11977526 was associated with high (vs. low) Gleason grade (OR per IGF‐II/IGFBP‐3 level‐raising allele 1.05; 95% CI: 1.00, 1.10). Using rs11977526 as an IV we estimated the causal effect of a one SD increase in IGF‐II (∼265 ng/mL) on risk of high vs. low grade disease as 1.14 (95% CI: 1.00, 1.31). Because of the potential for pleiotropy of the genetic instruments, these findings can only causally implicate the IGF pathway in general, not any one specific biomarker.

Abstract Background: Unnecessary intervention and overtreatment of indolent disease are common challenges in clinical management of prostate cancer. Improved tools to distinguish lethal from indolent disease are critical. Methods: We performed a genome-wide survival analysis of cause-specific death in 24,023 prostate cancer patients (3,513 disease-specific deaths) from the PRACTICAL and BPC3 consortia. Top findings were assessed for replication in a Norwegian cohort (CONOR). Results: We observed no significant association between genetic variants and prostate cancer survival. Conclusions: Common genetic variants with large impact on prostate cancer survival were not observed in this study. Impact: Future studies should be designed for identification of rare variants with large effect sizes or common variants with small effect sizes. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev; 24(11); 1796–800. ©2015 AACR.

Abstract Background: Genome-wide association studies have identified multiple genetic variants associated with prostate cancer risk which explain a substantial proportion of familial relative risk. These variants can be used to stratify individuals by their risk of prostate cancer. Methods: We genotyped 25 prostate cancer susceptibility loci in 40,414 individuals and derived a polygenic risk score (PRS). We estimated empirical odds ratios (OR) for prostate cancer associated with different risk strata defined by PRS and derived age-specific absolute risks of developing prostate cancer by PRS stratum and family history. Results: The prostate cancer risk for men in the top 1% of the PRS distribution was 30.6 (95% CI, 16.4–57.3) fold compared with men in the bottom 1%, and 4.2 (95% CI, 3.2–5.5) fold compared with the median risk. The absolute risk of prostate cancer by age of 85 years was 65.8% for a man with family history in the top 1% of the PRS distribution, compared with 3.7% for a man in the bottom 1%. The PRS was only weakly correlated with serum PSA level (correlation = 0.09). Conclusions: Risk profiling can identify men at substantially increased or reduced risk of prostate cancer. The effect size, measured by OR per unit PRS, was higher in men at younger ages and in men with family history of prostate cancer. Incorporating additional newly identified loci into a PRS should improve the predictive value of risk profiles. Impact: We demonstrate that the risk profiling based on SNPs can identify men at substantially increased or reduced risk that could have useful implications for targeted prevention and screening programs. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev; 24(7); 1121–9. ©2015 AACR.

Abstract Background: Multiple genome-wide and candidate gene association studies have been conducted in search of common risk variants for breast cancer. Recent large meta analyses, consolidating evidence from these studies, have been consistent in highlighting the caspase-8 (CASP8) gene as important in this regard. To define a risk haplotype and map the CASP8 gene region with respect to underlying susceptibility variant/s, we screened four genes in the CASP8 region on 2q33-q34 for breast cancer risk. Methods: Two independent data sets from the United Kingdom and the United States, including 3,888 breast cancer cases and controls, were genotyped for 45 tagging single nucleotide polymorphisms (tSNP) in the expanded CASP8 region. SNP and haplotype association tests were carried out using Monte Carlo-based methods. Results: We identified a three-SNP haplotype across rs3834129, rs6723097, and rs3817578 that was significantly associated with breast cancer (P &lt; 5 × 10−6), with a dominant risk ratio and 95% CI of 1.28 (1.21–1.35) and frequency of 0.29 in controls. Evidence for this risk haplotype was extremely consistent across the two study sites and also consistent with previous data. Conclusion: This three-SNP risk haplotype represents the best characterization so far of the chromosome upon which the susceptibility variant resides. Impact: Characterization of the risk haplotype provides a strong foundation for resequencing efforts to identify the underlying risk variant, which may prove useful for individual-level risk prediction, and provide novel insights into breast carcinogenesis. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev; 21(1); 176–81. ©2011 AACR.

Abstract Previous studies have suggested that minor alleles for ERCC4 rs744154, TNF rs361525, CASP10 rs13010627, PGR rs1042838, and BID rs8190315 may influence breast cancer risk, but the evidence is inconclusive due to their small sample size. These polymorphisms were genotyped in more than 30,000 breast cancer cases and 30,000 controls, primarily of European descent, from 30 studies in the Breast Cancer Association Consortium. We calculated odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) as a measure of association. We found that the minor alleles for these polymorphisms were not related to invasive breast cancer risk overall in women of European descent: ECCR4 per-allele OR (95% CI) = 0.99 (0.97-1.02), minor allele frequency = 27.5%; TNF 1.00 (0.95-1.06), 5.0%; CASP10 1.02 (0.98-1.07), 6.5%; PGR 1.02 (0.99-1.06), 15.3%; and BID 0.98 (0.86-1.12), 1.7%. However, we observed significant between-study heterogeneity for associations with risk for single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP) in CASP10, PGR, and BID. Estimates were imprecise for women of Asian and African descent due to small numbers and lower minor allele frequencies (with the exception of BID SNP). The ORs for each copy of the minor allele were not significantly different by estrogen or progesterone receptor status, nor were any significant interactions found between the polymorphisms and age or family history of breast cancer. In conclusion, our data provide persuasive evidence against an overall association between invasive breast cancer risk and ERCC4 rs744154, TNF rs361525, CASP10 rs13010627, PGR rs1042838, and BID rs8190315 genotypes among women of European descent. (Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev 2009;18(5):1610–6)