Scott, Christopher

Abstract Background We have demonstrated that a neural network is able to predict a person’s age from the electrocardiogram (ECG) [artificial intelligence (AI) ECG age]. However, some discrepancies were observed between ECG-derived and chronological ages. We assessed whether the difference between AI ECG and chronological age (Age-Gap) represents biological ageing and predicts long-term outcomes. Methods and results We previously developed a convolutional neural network to predict chronological age from ECGs. In this study, we used the network to analyse standard digital 12-lead ECGs in a cohort of 25 144 subjects ≥30 years who had primary care outpatient visits from 1997 to 2003. Subjects with coronary artery disease, stroke, and atrial fibrillation were excluded. We tested whether Age-Gap was correlated with total and cardiovascular mortality. Of 25 144 subjects tested (54% females, 95% Caucasian) followed for 12.4 ± 5.3 years, the mean chronological age was 53.7 ± 11.6 years and ECG-derived age was 54.6 ± 11 years (R2 = 0.79, P < 0.0001). The mean Age-Gap was small at 0.88 ± 7.4 years. Compared to those whose ECG-derived age was within 1 standard deviation (SD) of their chronological age, patients with Age-Gap ≥1 SD had higher all-cause and cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality. Conversely, subjects whose Age-Gap was ≤1 SD had lower all-cause and CVD mortality. Results were unchanged after adjusting for CVD risk factors and other survival influencing factors. Conclusion The difference between AI ECG and chronological age is an independent predictor of all-cause and cardiovascular mortality. Discrepancies between these possibly reflect disease independent biological ageing.

Abstract Background: It is not known whether modifiable lifestyle factors that predict survival after invasive breast cancer differ by subtype. Methods: We analyzed data for 121,435 women diagnosed with breast cancer from 67 studies in the Breast Cancer Association Consortium with 16,890 deaths (8,554 breast cancer specific) over 10 years. Cox regression was used to estimate associations between risk factors and 10-year all-cause mortality and breast cancer–specific mortality overall, by estrogen receptor (ER) status, and by intrinsic-like subtype. Results: There was no evidence of heterogeneous associations between risk factors and mortality by subtype (Padj > 0.30). The strongest associations were between all-cause mortality and BMI ≥30 versus 18.5–25 kg/m2 [HR (95% confidence interval (CI), 1.19 (1.06–1.34)]; current versus never smoking [1.37 (1.27–1.47)], high versus low physical activity [0.43 (0.21–0.86)], age ≥30 years versus <20 years at first pregnancy [0.79 (0.72–0.86)]; >0–<5 years versus ≥10 years since last full-term birth [1.31 (1.11–1.55)]; ever versus never use of oral contraceptives [0.91 (0.87–0.96)]; ever versus never use of menopausal hormone therapy, including current estrogen–progestin therapy [0.61 (0.54–0.69)]. Similar associations with breast cancer mortality were weaker; for example, 1.11 (1.02–1.21) for current versus never smoking. Conclusions: We confirm associations between modifiable lifestyle factors and 10-year all-cause mortality. There was no strong evidence that associations differed by ER status or intrinsic-like subtype. Impact: Given the large dataset and lack of evidence that associations between modifiable risk factors and 10-year mortality differed by subtype, these associations could be cautiously used in prognostication models to inform patient-centered care.

Abstract High alcohol intake and breast density increase breast cancer (BC) risk, but their interrelationship is unknown. We examined whether volumetric density modifies and/or mediates the alcohol-BC association. BC cases (n = 2233) diagnosed from 2006 to 2013 in the San Francisco Bay area had screening mammograms 6 or more months before diagnosis; controls (n = 4562) were matched on age, mammogram date, race or ethnicity, facility, and mammography machine. Logistic regression was used to estimate alcohol-BC associations adjusted for age, body mass index, and menopause; interaction terms assessed modification. Percent mediation was quantified as the ratio of log (odds ratios [ORs]) from models with and without density measures. Alcohol consumption was associated with increased BC risk (2-sided Ptrend = .004), as were volumetric percent density (OR = 1.45 per SD, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.36 to 1.56) and dense volume (OR = 1.30, 95% CI = 1.24 to 1.37). Breast density did not modify the alcohol-BC association (2-sided P > .10 for all). Dense volume mediated 25.0% (95% CI = 5.5% to 44.4%) of the alcohol-BC association (2-sided P = .01), suggesting alcohol may partially increase BC risk by increasing fibroglandular tissue.

Abstract Background: Clinical use of breast cancer risk prediction requires simplified models. We evaluate a simplified version of the validated Rosner–Colditz model and add percent mammographic density (MD) and polygenic risk score (PRS), to assess performance from ages 45–74. We validate using the Mayo Mammography Health Study (MMHS). Methods: We derived the model in the Nurses' Health Study (NHS) based on: MD, 77 SNP PRS and a questionnaire score (QS; lifestyle and reproductive factors). A total of 2,799 invasive breast cancer cases were diagnosed from 1990–2000. MD (using Cumulus software) and PRS were assessed in a nested case–control study. We assess model performance using this case–control dataset and evaluate 10-year absolute breast cancer risk. The prospective MMHS validation dataset includes 21.8% of women age <50, and 434 incident cases identified over 10 years of follow-up. Results: In the NHS, MD has the highest odds ratio (OR) for 10-year risk prediction: ORper SD = 1.48 [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.31–1.68], followed by PRS, ORper SD = 1.37 (95% CI: 1.21–1.55) and QS, ORper SD = 1.25 (95% CI: 1.11–1.41). In MMHS, the AUC adjusted for age + MD + QS 0.650; for age + MD + QS + PRS 0.687, and the NRI was 6% in cases and 16% in controls. Conclusion: A simplified assessment of QS, MD, and PRS performs consistently to discriminate those at high 10-year breast cancer risk. Impact: This simplified model provides accurate estimation of 10-year risk of invasive breast cancer that can be used in a clinical setting to identify women who may benefit from chemopreventive intervention. See related commentary by Tehranifar et al., p. 587

Abstract Aims Cardiac power is a measure of cardiac performance that incorporates both pressure and flow components. Prior studies have shown that cardiac power predicts outcomes in patients with reduced left ventricular (LV) ejection fraction (EF). We sought to evaluate the prognostic significance of peak exercise cardiac power and power reserve in patients with normal EF. Methods and results We performed a retrospective analysis in 24 885 patients (age 59 ± 13 years, 45% females) with EF ≥50% and no significant valve disease or right ventricular dysfunction, undergoing exercise stress echocardiography between 2004 and 2018. Cardiac power and power reserve (developed power with stress) were normalized to LV mass and expressed in W/100 g of LV myocardium. Endpoints at follow-up were all-cause mortality and diagnosis of heart failure (HF). Patients in the higher quartiles of power/mass (rest, peak stress, and power reserve) were younger and had higher peak blood pressure and heart rate, lower LV mass, and lower prevalence of comorbidities. During follow-up [median 3.9 (0.6–8.3) years], 929 patients died. After adjusting for age, sex, metabolic equivalents (METs) achieved, ischaemia/infarction on stress test results, medication, and comorbidities, peak stress power/mass was independently associated with mortality [adjusted hazard ratio (HR), highest vs. lowest quartile, 0.5, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.4–0.6, P < 0.001] and HF at follow-up [adjusted HR, highest vs. lowest quartile, 0.4, 95% CI (0.3, 0.5), P < 0.001]. Power reserve showed similar results. Conclusion The assessment of cardiac power during exercise stress echocardiography in patients with normal EF provides valuable prognostic information, in addition to stress test findings on inducible myocardial ischaemia and exercise capacity.

Objective To comprehensively explore contemporary differences between bicuspid aortic valve (BAV) and tricuspid aortic valve (TAV) patients with chronic haemodynamically significant aortic regurgitation (AR). Methods Consecutive patients with chronic ≥moderate-severe AR from a tertiary referral centre (2006–2017) were included. All-cause mortality, surgical indications and aortic valve surgery (AVS) were analysed. Results Of 798 patients (296 BAV-AR, age 46±14 years; 502 TAV-AR, age 67±14 years, p<0.0001) followed for 5.5 (IQR: 2.9–9.2) years, 403 underwent AVS (repair in 96) and 154 died during follow-up. The 8-year AVS incidence was 60%±3% versus 53%±3% for BAV-AR and TAV-AR, respectively (p=0.014). The unadjusted (real-life) 8-year total survival was 93%±7% versus 71%±2% for BAV-AR and TAV-AR, respectively (p<0.0001), and became statistically insignificant after sole adjustment for age (p=0.14). The within-group relative risk of death in BAV-AR patients demonstrated a large age-dependent increase (two fold at 50–55 years, up to 10-fold at 70 years). The presence of baseline symptoms was significantly associated with death for both BAV-AR (p=0.039) and TAV-AR (p<0.0001), but the strength of the association decreased with age adjustment for BAV-AR (age-adjusted HR 2.43 (0.92–6.39), p=0.07) and not for TAV-AR (age-adjusted HR, 2.3 (1.6–3.3), p<0.0001). As compared with general population, TAV-AR exhibited baseline excess risk which further increased at left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) <60% and left ventricular end-systolic dimension index (LVESDi) >20 mm/m2; similar thresholds were observed for BAV-AR patients. Conclusion BAV-AR patients were two decades younger than TAV-AR and underwent AVS more frequently, resulting in a considerable real-life survival advantage for BAV-AR that was determined primarily by age and not valve anatomy. Pragmatically, regardless of valve anatomy, patients with haemodynamically significant AR and age >50–55 years require a low-threshold for surgical referral to prevent symptom development where LVEF <60% and LVESDi >20 mm/m2 seem appropriate referral thresholds.

Objective To determine whether echocardiography-derived left ventricular filling pressure influences survival in patients with severe aortic stenosis (AS) undergoing aortic valve replacement (AVR). Methods We retrospectively reviewed 1383 consecutive patients with severe AS, normal ejection fraction and interpretable filling pressure undergoing AVR. Left ventricular filling pressure was determined according to current guidelines using mitral inflow, mitral annular tissue Doppler, estimated right ventricular systolic pressure and left atrial volume index. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to assess the influence of various parameters on mortality. Results Age was 75±10 years and 552 (40%) were female. Left ventricular filling pressure was normal in 325 (23%), indeterminate in 463 (33%) and increased in 595 (43%). Mean follow-up was 7.3±3.7 years, and mortality was 1.2%, 4.2% and 18.9% at 30 days and 1 and 5 years, respectively. Compared with patients with normal filling pressure, patients with increased filling pressure were older (78±9 vs 70±12, p<0.001), more often female (45% vs 35%, p=0.002) and were more likely to have New York Heart Association class III–IV symptoms (35% vs 24%, p=0.004), coronary artery disease (55% vs 42%, p<0.001) and concentric left ventricular hypertrophy (63% vs 37%, p<0.001). After correction for other factors, increased left ventricular filling pressure remained an independent predictor of mortality after successful AVR (adjusted HR 1.45 (95% CI 1.16 to 1.81), p=0.005). Conclusions Preoperative increased left ventricular filling pressure is common in patients with AS undergoing AVR and has important prognostic implications, regardless of symptom status. Future prospective studies should consider whether patients with increased filling pressure would benefit from earlier operation.

Abstract Aims Right ventricular dysfunction (RVD) is an important determinant of functional status and survival in various diseases states. Data are sparse on the epidemiology and outcome of patients with severe RVD. This study examined the characteristics, aetiology, and survival of patients with severe RVD. Methods and results Retrospective study of consecutive patients with severe RVD diagnosed by transthoracic echocardiography (TTE) between 2011 and 2015 in a single tertiary referral institution. Patients with prior cardiac surgery, mechanical assist devices, and congenital heart disease were excluded. Primary endpoint was all-cause mortality. In 64 728 patients undergoing TTE, the prevalence of ≥mild RVD was 21%. This study focused on the cohort of 1299 (4%) patients with severe RVD; age 64 ± 16 years; 61% male. The most common causes of severe RVD were left-sided heart diseases (46%), pulmonary thromboembolic disease (18%), chronic lung disease/hypoxia (CLD; 17%), and pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH; 11%). After 2 ± 2 years of follow-up, 701 deaths occurred, 66% within the first year of diagnosis. The overall probability of survival at 1- and 5 years for the entire cohort were 61% [95% confidence interval (CI) 58–64%] and 35% (95% CI 31–38%), respectively. In left-sided heart diseases, 1- and 5-year survival rates were 61% (95% CI 57–65%) and 33% (95% CI 28–37%), respectively; vs. 76% (95% CI 68–82%) and 50% (95% CI 40–59%) in PAH, vs. 71% (95% CI 64–76%) and 49% (95% CI 41–58%) in thromboembolic diseases, vs. 42% (95% CI 35–49%) and 8% (95% CI 4–15%) in CLD (log-rank P &lt; 0.0001). Presence of ≥moderate tricuspid regurgitation portended worse survival in severe RVD. Conclusion One-year mortality of patients with severe RVD was high (∼40%) and dependent on the aetiology of RVD. Left-sided heart diseases is the most common cause of severe RVD but prognosis was worst in CLD.

Objective The presence of aortic paravalvular leak (PVL) is associated with lower survival, but a direct comparison of its impact after transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR) versus surgical aortic valve replacement (SAVR) has not been performed. This study sought to determine the differential influence of PVL on survival following TAVR versus SAVR and in patients with varying levels of risk as defined by the Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS) risk score. Methods Patients with and without postprocedural PVL were identified from 2290 patients undergoing TAVR or SAVR at Mayo Clinic between 2008 and 2014. The primary endpoint was overall survival. Results There were 588 patients with PVL (374 TAVR, 214 SAVR): age 78±11 years, 63% male and mean follow-up of 3±2 years. PVL was trivial/mild in 442 (75%) patients. In propensity-matched analyses (n=86 per group), the overall survival at 1 and 4 years was 93% and 56% vs 89% and 61% in patients with PVL after TAVR versus SAVR, respectively (p=0.43). The presence or degree of PVL severity had no influence on survival of patients with high STS score (≥8%), while the presence of greater than mild PVL predicted worse survival in those with STS score <8%. During the first year after PVL diagnosis, while either improvement or stable PVL grade was seen in the majority of patients, worsening of PVL grade was more common in the TAVR group (19%) versus the SAVR group (4%) (p<0.0001). Conclusions At mid-term follow-up, the presence of PVL was associated with equally unfavourable outcomes following SAVR or TAVR. In patients with high STS risk score, the presence of PVL was not independently associated with increased mortality.

Background— Among patients with severe aortic stenosis (AS) and preserved ejection fraction, those with low gradient (LG) and reduced stroke volume may have an adverse prognosis. We investigated the prognostic impact of stroke volume using the recently proposed flow-gradient classification. Methods and Results— We examined 1704 consecutive patients with severe AS (aortic valve area <1.0 cm 2 ) and preserved ejection fraction (≥50%) using 2-dimensional and Doppler echocardiography. Patients were stratified by stroke volume index (<35 mL/m 2 [low flow, LF] versus ≥35 mL/m 2 [normal flow, NF]) and aortic gradient (<40 mm Hg [LG] versus ≥40 mm Hg [high gradient, HG]) into 4 groups: NF/HG, NF/LG, LF/HG, and LF/LG. NF/LG (n=352, 21%), was associated with favorable survival with medical management (2-year estimate, 82% versus 67% in NF/HG; P <0.0001). LF/LG severe AS (n=53, 3%) was characterized by lower ejection fraction, more prevalent atrial fibrillation and heart failure, reduced arterial compliance, and reduced survival (2-year estimate, 60% versus 82% in NF/HG; P <0.001). In multivariable analysis, the LF/LG pattern was the strongest predictor of mortality (hazard ratio, 3.26; 95% confidence interval, 1.71–6.22; P <0.001 versus NF/LG). Aortic valve replacement was associated with a 69% mortality reduction (hazard ratio, 0.31; 95% confidence interval, 0.25–0.39; P <0.0001) in LF/LG and NF/HG, with no survival benefit associated with aortic valve replacement in NF/LG and LF/HG. Conclusions— NF/LG severe AS with preserved ejection fraction exhibits favorable survival with medical management, and the impact of aortic valve replacement on survival was neutral. LF/LG severe AS is characterized by a high prevalence of atrial fibrillation, heart failure, and reduced survival, and aortic valve replacement was associated with improved survival. These findings have implications for the evaluation and subsequent management of AS severity.