Maurer, Matthew

Marketing authorizations for oncology drugs are often based on single‐arm trials (SATs), and real‐world data‐based external comparator cohorts (ECCs) are increasingly explored to contextualize results. In retrospective studies, comparators may be identified by time of diagnosis but included based on time of relapse; such sampling strategies can introduce bias, potentially leading to erroneous efficacy conclusions. Simulated diffuse large B‐cell lymphoma (DLBCL) cohorts were generated using published time‐to‐relapse and post‐relapse survival distributions. Three ECC sampling strategies were evaluated: naïve (screening and inclusion periods coincide), delayed (inclusion period extends beyond screening), and displacement (screening and inclusion periods shifted relative to each other). Different sampling strategies caused significant changes in the time‐to‐relapse distribution in the ECC and, by proxy, the estimated 2‐year post‐relapse overall survival (22.5–52.2%). Naïve sampling consistently resulted in oversampling of early relapses, though bias was reduced with extended inclusion periods; in hypothetical trials, it produced inflated Type I errors (10.5–84.9%) despite α = 0.025. Delayed sampling reduced bias when the inclusion period was sufficiently extended to capture late relapses, yielding unbiased estimates under long delays (Type I error of 2.5% at a 6‐year delay). Displacement sampling depended strongly on the degree of shift: moderate shifts minimized bias, whereas long displacements introduced substantial distortion (Type I error of 2.7% and 0.0% at displacements of 2 and 5, respectively). Real‐world data‐based ECCs in relapsed/refractory oncology are susceptible to selection bias from sampling strategies, particularly through distortions in time‐to‐relapse, leading to erroneous efficacy conclusions; similar bias may occur in non‐oncology settings where time‐to‐treatment initiation is prognostic.

Abstract Germinal center (GC)-derived lymphomas arise within a specialized immune ecosystem, yet whether malignant cells direct its remodeling remains unclear. Integrating genomic, transcriptomic, spatial, and functional analyses across follicular lymphoma and diffuse large B-cell lymphoma, we define a developmental framework linking malignant B-cell differentiation state to tumor microenvironment (TME) organization. Rather than segregating by histology, lymphomas align along a shared differentiation continuum in which proliferative dark zone (DZ) states associate with immune-depleted TMEs, whereas post-GC/memory B-cell (MBC) states drive inflamed but immunosuppressed TMEs. Spatial profiling reveals collapse of GC architecture and emergence of suppressive myeloid niches along this trajectory. Single-cell lineage reconstruction uncovers a DZ-to-MBC developmental axis underlying lymphoma evolution. Genetic reprogramming in vivo demonstrates that malignant differentiation state is sufficient to instruct TME remodeling. Collectively, these findings establish malignant differentiation state as a causal determinant of immune architecture across GC-derived lymphomas and identify lineage-directed immune reprogramming as a potential therapeutic strategy.

Abstract Background: Although some vaccines seem to be associated with a lower risk of lymphoma, their impact on outcomes is largely unknown. Methods: Data from a large prospective lymphoma cohort study were utilized to estimate associations of self-reported history of vaccination against hepatitis A, hepatitis B, influenza, and yellow fever with event-free survival (EFS) and overall survival (OS) using Cox proportional hazard models. Results: None of the vaccines were associated with EFS [hazard ratio (HR) 0.77–1] or OS (HRs 0.96–1.04). Similarly, there were no significant associations between the vaccines and outcomes for each lymphoma subtype. Conclusions: Prior vaccination against selected viruses was not associated with EFS or OS among patients with lymphoma. Impact: We did not find evidence for an impact of prior vaccination on lymphoma prognosis.

ABSTRACT One quarter of patients with diffuse large B‐cell lymphoma (DLBCL) who achieve a complete response following front‐line therapy will eventually experience disease relapse. Existing prognostic models use baseline factors to predict outcomes from the start of initial therapy and are not intended for use following completion of treatment. We developed a conditional event‐free survival (cEFS) tool that predicts a patient's risk of lymphoma recurrence after completing front‐line therapy taking into consideration baseline risk characteristics plus the time the patient has been in remission. Model development used pooled and harmonized data from two observational cohorts and four randomized trials of patients with newly diagnosed DLBCL treated with immunochemotherapy and either achieving a complete response or not experiencing an event within 12 weeks of end of therapy. Cox proportional‐hazards regression modeling with backwards stepwise selection was utilized for model development. External validation was performed using a large independent data registry. In total, data from 2757 patients were used for model development. The risk of experiencing an event at a time point after having survived a period of time could be computed parsimoniously using four basic predictors: age, ECOG performance status grade, Ann Arbor stage, and lactate dehydrogenase level. C‐index in the model development cohort was 0.65 (95% CI, 0.63–0.68), compared to 0.64 (95% CI, 0.62–0.66) in the external validation cohort. We believe that this dynamic risk prediction tool will not only aid clinicians in providing data‐driven recommendations for surveillance, but also assist patients themselves with key decisions, such as family planning.

Abstract A short diagnosis-to-treatment interval independently predicts inferior outcomes in follicular lymphoma. Using international discovery and validation cohorts, we demonstrate its prognostic value beyond established prognostic indices, with implications for risk stratification, clinical trial design, and interpretation.

Abstract We evaluated outcomes by management type for patients with stage IA nodular lymphocyte-predominant Hodgkin lymphoma (NLPHL) in the Global NLPHL One Working Group retrospective database of 2243 patients with stages I to IV disease diagnosed from 1992 to 2021 at 38 international institutions. A total of 779 patients had stage IA disease with median age of 35 years (range, 3-89) and median follow-up of 6.1 years. The 6-year progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival were 86.3% and 97.7%, respectively. Outcomes were analyzed for the 2 groups: complete resection and unresected disease. Patients with a complete resection and observation alone (n = 99) had a 6-year PFS of 65.5% vs 90.5% for those who received radiotherapy (RT) (n = 53). Patients with unresected disease (n = 627; 80.5%) had a 6-year PFS of 62.0% for rituximab alone (n = 31), 89.6% for RT alone (n = 325), 76.8% for ABVD (doxorubicin, bleomycin, vinblastine, dacarbazine) alone (n = 40), and 94.3% for ABVD plus RT (n = 130). A total of 127 patients relapsed (16.3%), of which 25 (19.7%) had transformation. Our analysis suggests the following: (1) RT improves the PFS in patients with completely resected disease; (2) rituximab or ABVD alone does not appear to achieve a durable response; and (3) chemotherapy was not observed to add additional PFS benefit when used in combination with RT. Thus, for stage IA NLPHL, RT alone is likely sufficient for definitive treatment.

ABSTRACT Soluble tumor necrosis factor receptor 2 (sTNFR2) is a member of the TNF superfamily whose normal bodily distribution is largely limited to low level expression on lymphoid cells. It has emerged as an important inducible receptor that activates a signaling pathway for cancer growth. We evaluated sTNFR2 as a prognostic biomarker for overall survival (OS) in newly diagnosed lymphoma using a prospective cohort study with banked pretreatment serum samples. sTNFR2 was higher in 1513 lymphoma patients compared to 499 age and sex matched controls ( p < 0.0001). Using Kaplan–Meier curves and Cox proportional hazards models to estimate hazard ratios [HR] (high vs. low tertile), higher levels of sTNFR2 at diagnosis were associated with inferior OS across all seven major lymphoma subtypes: Hodgkin lymphoma ( p < 0.0001; HR = 12.6), diffuse large B‐cell lymphoma ( p < 0.0001; HR = 2.6), follicular lymphoma ( p = 0.00017; HR = 2.5), mantle cell lymphoma ( p < 0.0001; HR = 4.2), small lymphocytic lymphoma ( p = 0.012; HR = 2.4), marginal zone lymphoma ( p = 0.0012; HR = 3.1), and T‐cell lymphoma ( p < 0.0001; HR = 3.1). Using CITE‐seq profiling of tumor microenvironment tissue, we sought to identify cellular source(s) of circulating sTNFR2. In tumor tissue from follicular lymphoma, high TNFR2‐expressing cells were found to be T‐regulatory (Treg) cells, suggestive of a Treg‐driven cancer. In tissue from a case of marginal zone lymphoma, high TNFR2 expression was found on CD4+ and CD8+ T cells, B cells, and monocytes but also directly on tumor cells. We conclude sTNRF2 is a strong prognostic biomarker of OS across major lymphoma subtypes and may be useful to guide therapeutic choices, including targeted therapies against immunosuppressive TNFR2‐expressing Tregs.

Summary Family history of haematological malignancy (FHHM) reflects inherited susceptibility to non‐Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL), but its prognostic significance remains poorly understood. We used a cohort study of 1994 NHL patients to evaluate associations between FHHM and clinical outcomes across lymphoma subtypes. We estimated associations, adjusted for sex and lymphoma‐specific prognostic index, of self‐reported FHHM in a first‐degree relative with overall survival (OS), event‐free survival (EFS) and lymphoma‐specific survival (LSS) using multivariable Cox regression models and with failure to achieve EFS at 24 months (EFS24) using logistic regression. FHHM prevalence was 12.8%, and the median follow‐up among survivors was 12.0 years. FHHM was not associated with OS. In subtype‐specific analyses, FHHM was associated with inferior LSS (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.98, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.11–3.53) in follicular lymphoma (FL); this association and the association with EFS24 failure strengthened among those treated with front‐line immunochemotherapy (EFS24 failure odds ratio = 2.57, 95% CI 1.08–5.99; LSS HR = 2.68, 95% CI 1.09–6.58). In mantle cell lymphoma, FHHM was associated with inferior EFS (HR = 1.70, 95% CI 1.02–2.85). Interaction testing did not demonstrate significant heterogeneity of FHHM effects by lymphoma subtype. FHHM may be associated with adverse outcomes in select NHL groups, particularly FL. These findings warrant further investigation of germline and environmental factors potentially contributing to more aggressive FLs.

Abstract Few prospective benchmark studies exist to characterize the evolving contemporary real-world practice for peripheral T-cell lymphoma (PTCL). We report the patterns of first-line care and outcomes for 720 patients with systemic PTCL enrolled in 2 related prospective cohort studies, Lymphoma Epidemiology of Outcomes (LEO) from 2015 to 2020 and Molecular Epidemiology Resource (MER) from 2002 to 2015, both followed to 2024. The primary end points were event-free survival (EFS) and overall survival (OS) using Kaplan-Meier estimator and Cox regression model. Secondary end points included correlations of clinical and treatment factors with survival. The most common induction regimens were CHOP (cyclophosphamide, doxorubicin, vincristine, prednisone) based (70%), given as CHOP (36%), CHOP plus etoposide (23%), or CHOP-like plus novel agents (11.5%, including 5% BV-CHP [brentuximab plus cyclophosphamide, doxorubicin, and prednisone]). Consolidative autologous stem cell transplant was performed in 102 patients (14%). Within nodal PTCL, EFS and OS were adversely associated with International Prognostic Index 2 to 5, prognostic index for T-cell lymphoma score 1 to 4, and non–anaplastic large-cell lymphoma (ALCL) subtypes. Within LEO, which captured increasing first-line etoposide and brentuximab vedotin, adding etoposide to CHOP was associated with better OS in anaplastic lymphoma kinase-negative ALCL. BV-CHP showed a trend toward OS improvement in ALCL. Patients failing EFS6 and EFS24 had 5-year subsequent OS of 12% and 17%, respectively. The inferior outcomes in non-ALCL subtypes and patients failing EFS6 and EFS24 highlight unmet needs with CHOP-based induction, where clinical trials with targeted therapy should be prioritized. This trial was registered at www.clinicaltrials.gov as NCT02736357.