Vachon, C

Image-derived artificial intelligence (AI) risk models have shown promise in short-term risk assessment for improving breast cancer (BC) screening. No image-derived long-term AI risk model for primary prevention has been developed and externally validated. Individuals aged 31 to 94 years were recruited between 2010 and 2020 in two population-based case cohorts (Olmsted County, Minnesota, US, and KARMA, Sweden) and one hospital-based case-control study (EMBED, Atlanta, US). Median follow-up in the case cohorts was 10 years, with BCs diagnosed through June 2022. Additional validation was performed in EMBED with 3-year follow-up. An AI risk model was developed in Sweden, and we report independent validation in Olmsted/KARMA/EMBED. Absolute 10-year risks were estimated at study entry. Time-dependent discriminatory performance [AUC( t )] and expected-to-observed events (E/O) were estimated. Comparisons were performed with clinical risk tools and the image-based Mirai tool. Across Olmsted/KARMA, 8696 individuals (mean age, 54.4±10.6) and 1633 individuals with incident BC (mean age, 57.0±10.6) were included. Average 10-year risks were 3.83 and 3.14%, and E/O ratios were 0.99 and 0.99. Ten-year AUC( t ) for invasive BCs were 0.72 in Olmsted and 0.72 in KARMA. Similar discriminatory results were observed in EMBED. Our AI risk tool performed significantly better than Mirai in Olmsted/KARMA/EMBED. In KARMA, in the top 10% of high-risk individuals, the AI risk tool predicted 33% of BCs compared with 23%/20%/24% predicted by Tyrer-Cuzick-v8/BCSC-v3/Mirai (all P < 0.01). The 10-year image-derived AI risk model showed significantly higher performance than clinical risk models and Mirai in diverse populations, supporting its clinical potential for primary prevention.

Abstract Background. Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified 35 genetic susceptibility single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) for multiple myeloma (MM) in individuals of European ancestry (EA) and shown strong genetic correlation between MM and its precursor, monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance (MGUS). We evaluate the contribution of the 35 MM variants to MGUS susceptibility overall and by prognostic subgroups. Methods. The study included 20,756 participants (14,486 controls, 1,883 with MGUS, and 2,163 with MM) from the Mayo Clinic. Logistic regression assuming an additive model estimated odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for individual SNPs and for the MM-PRS, adjusted for age, sex, study, and principal components. The PRS was a weighted sum of 35 SNPs with effect estimates from the largest MM GWAS and was modeled continuously (per SD) and by quintiles (Q1-Q5). SNPnexus annotated variants that replicated in MGUS (P &lt; 0.05 and OR &gt; 1.01) versus those that did not (P &gt; 0.05 and OR &lt; 1.01). Results. The 35-SNP MM-PRS was strongly associated with MM risk and modestly with MGUS. Compared with the middle quintile (Q3), MM odds rose from OR=0.55 (CI=0.46-0.65, P=2.2e-11) in Q1 to OR = 1.82 (CI=1.59-2.09, P=6.2e-18) in Q5. MGUS showed a similar, attenuated pattern (Q1 OR = 0.74, CI=0.64-0.84, P=6.4e-6 / Q5 OR=1.36, CI=1.21-1.53, P=3.4e-7). Each SD increase in PRS corresponded to OR=1.52 (CI=1.45-1.59, P=1.3e-66) for MM and OR = 1.22 (CI=1.18-1.27, P=1.0e-23) for MGUS. Higher PRS values were linked to larger M-protein ((0.1-1.5 g/dL: OR=1.40, CI=1.18-1.65, P=5.8e-12) vs &lt;0.1 g/dL: OR = 1.19, CI=1.13-1.24, P=5.8e-12)) and abnormal free light chain (FLC) ratio ((OR = 1.33, CI=1.21-1.46, P=1.0e-9) vs normal ratio (OR=1.19, CI=1.14-1.25, P=1.4e-13)). Ten risk loci replicated in MGUS, mapping to genes involved in plasma-cell function, immune regulation, and DNA repair and enriched for Rho GTPase signaling, NF-κB-mediated apoptosis, and RNA polymerase II transcription, implicating early plasma-cell activation and transcriptional control. The 12 non-replicating loci, including PHC3, ATG5, and NFIC, mapped to genes involved in chromatin remodeling, autophagy, and SUMOylation, suggesting roles in stress response and genomic maintenance. Conclusions. The MM-PRS captures shared heritability between MM and MGUS and correlates with MGUS subtype and severity. Replicating variants highlight immune and cell-cycle pathways relevant to MGUS onset, whereas non-replicating loci cluster in DNA-repair and stress-response processes, underscoring their potential role in progression. Citation Format: Alyssa Ione Clay-Gilmour, Angelica Macauda, Cristine Allmer, Danelle Moonen, Aaron D. Norman, Nicholas Boddicker, Janet E. Olson, Elizabeth E. Brown, Vincent S. Rajkumar, Esteban Braggio, David Murray, Susan Slager, Shaji Kunnathu Kumar, Celine Vachon. Implications of multiple myeloma polygenic risk scores (PRS) for MGUS [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the American Association for Cancer Research Annual Meeting 2026; Part 1 (Regular Abstracts); 2026 Apr 17-22; San Diego, CA. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2026;86(7 Suppl):Abstract nr 3603.