Melton, L. Joseph

Abstract Osteoporotic fractures exact a terrible toll on the population with respect to morbidity and cost, and to a lesser extent mortality, which will increase dramatically with the growing elderly population. Attention has focused on the 12-20% excess deaths after hip fracture, but most are caused by underlying medical conditions unrelated to osteoporosis. More important is fracture-related morbidity. An estimated 10% of patients are disabled by hip fracture, and 19% require institutionalization, accounting for almost 140,000 nursing home admissions annually in this country. Distal forearm and vertebral fractures less commonly result in nursing home placement, but about 10% of postmenopausal women have vertebral deformities that cause chronic pain, and a substantial minority have poor function after forearm fracture. These fractures interfere greatly with the activities of daily living, and all of them can have a substantial negative impact on quality of life. Annual expenditures for osteoporotic fracture care in the United States ($17.5 million in 2002 dollars) are dominated by hip fracture treatment, but vertebral fractures, distal forearm fractures, and importantly, the other fractures related to osteoporosis contribute one-third of the total. Although all fracture patients are at increased risk of future fractures, few of them are currently treated for osteoporosis, and only a subset (i.e., those with vertebral fractures) are considered candidates for many clinical trials. Eligibility criteria should be expanded and fracture end-points generalized to acknowledge the overall burden of osteoporotic fractures.

Abstract Elderly women with the lowest serum estrogen levels are at the greatest risk of bone loss and fractures, but it is controversial whether the ovaries contribute to estrogen production after menopause, and therefore, whether bilateral oophorectomy in postmenopausal women might have adverse skeletal effects. To address this potential problem, we estimated long-term fracture risk among 340 postmenopausal Olmsted County, MN, women who underwent bilateral oophorectomy for a benign ovarian condition in 1950-1987. In over 5632 person-years of follow-up (median, 16 years per subject), 194 women experienced 516 fractures (72% from moderate trauma). Compared with expected rates, there was a significant increase in the risk of any osteoporotic fracture (moderate trauma fractures of the hip, spine, or distal forearm; standardized incidence ratio [SIR], 1.54; 95% CI, 1.29-1.82) but almost as large an increase in fractures at other sites (SIR, 1.35; 95% CI, 1.13-1.59). In multivariate analyses, the independent predictors of overall fracture risk were age, anticonvulsant or anticoagulant use for ≥6 months, and a history of alcoholism or prior osteoporotic fracture; obesity was protective. Estrogen replacement therapy was associated with a 10% reduction in overall fracture risk (hazard ratio [HR], 0.90; 95% CI, 0.64-1.28) and a 20% reduction in osteoporotic fractures (HR, 0.80; 95% CI, 0.52-1.23), but neither was statistically significant. The increase in fracture risk among women who underwent bilateral oophorectomy after natural menopause is consistent with the hypothesis that androgens produced by the postmenopausal ovary are important for endogenous estrogen production that protects against fractures.

Abstract We hypothesized that the presence of monoclonal free kappa or lambda immunoglobulin light chains in monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance (MGUS), as detected by the serum free light chain (FLC) assay increases the risk of progression to malignancy. Of 1384 patients with MGUS from Southeastern Minnesota seen at the Mayo Clinic from 1960 to 1994, baseline serum samples obtained within 30 days of diagnosis were available in 1148. At a median follow-up of 15 years, malignant progression had occurred in 87 (7.6%) patients. An abnormal FLC ratio (kappa-lambda ratio < 0.26 or > 1.65) was detected in 379 (33%) patients. The risk of progression in patients with an abnormal FLC ratio was significantly higher compared with patients with a normal ratio (hazard ratio, 3.5; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.3-5.5; P < .001) and was independent of the size and type of the serum monoclonal (M) protein. Patients with an abnormal serum FLC ratio, non–immunoglobulin G (non-IgG) MGUS, and a high serum M protein level (≥ 15 g/L) had a risk of progression at 20 years of 58% (high-risk MGUS) versus 37% with any 2 of these risk factors (high-intermediate risk), 21% with one risk factor (low-intermediate risk), and 5% when none of the risk factors were present (low risk).

AbstractLittle effort has been made to quantitate adverse outcomes of monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance (MGUS) of the immunoglobulin M (IgM) class, which progresses to lymphoma or Waldenström macroglobulinemia, whereas IgA and IgG MGUS progress to multiple myeloma, primary amyloidosis (AL), or a related plasma cell disorder. From 1960 to 1994, IgM MGUS was diagnosed in 213 patients in southeastern Minnesota. The end point was progression to lymphoma or a related disorder, as assessed with the Kaplan-Meier method. The 213 patients were followed up for 1567 person-years (median, 6.3 years per patient). Lymphoma developed in 17 patients (relative risk [RR], 14.8), Waldenström macroglobulinemia in 6 (RR, 262), primary amyloidosis in 3 (RR, 16.3), and chronic lymphocytic leukemia in 3 (RR, 5.7). The relative risk of progression was 16-fold higher in the patients with IgM MGUS than in the white population of the Iowa Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program. Cumulative incidence of progression was 10% at 5 years, 18% at 10 years, and 24% at 15 years. On multivariate analysis, the serum monoclonal protein and serum albumin concentrations at diagnosis were the only risk factors for progression to lymphoma or a related disorder. Risk for progression to lymphoma or a related disorder at 10 years after the diagnosis of MGUS was 14% with an initial monoclonal protein concentration of 0.5 g/dL or less, 26% with 1.5 g/dL, 34% for 2.0 g/dL, and 41% for more than 2.5 g/dL. (Blood. 2003;102:3759-3764)