Romoli, Michele

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Unruptured intracranial aneurysms (UIAs) are increasingly detected and require careful management to prevent rupture. No externally validated score currently predicts procedural risk to guide treatment decisions. We developed and validated 2 predictive scores for complications after endovascular treatment (EVT) or neurosurgical treatment (NT) of UIA using routinely collected clinical and aneurysmal features. METHODS: We conducted a multicenter retrospective study including patients with UIA treated with EVT or NT across 15 neurovascular centers (2014-2024). Predictive models were built using multivariable logistic regression, with variables derived from Delphi consensus. The primary outcome was a composite safety end point: new neurological deficits, modified Rankin Scale (mRS) worsening (≥1 point or mRS 2-5 within 30 days), or procedural death. Internal validation used bootstrapping, and external validation was performed temporally and institutionally. Model performance was assessed using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) and calibration. Final scores, named Morbidity and Mortality Associated Risk in the Treatment of UIAs (MARTA)-EVT and MARTA-NT, were compared with existing models identified through systematic review. RESULTS: Among 2647 patients (1907 EVT and 740 NT), procedural complications occurred in 6.3% (EVT) and 12.8% (NT). Independent predictors included age, baseline mRS, aneurysm location, size, morphology, and procedural factors. MARTA-EVT (AUROC = 0.68, 95% CI = 0.57-0.78) and MARTA-NT (AUROC = 0.65, 95% CI = 0.54-0.77) showed moderate discrimination and good calibration. MARTA-EVT outperformed existing models; MARTA-NT performed similarly to SAFETEA. Predictive models are available open-source: https://martascoreapp.shinyapps.io/martascoreapp/. CONCLUSION: MARTA-EVT and MARTA-NT are validated tools for predicting procedural risks in UIA treatment and may support patient counseling and clinical decision making.

BACKGROUND: Patients with cervical artery dissection (CeAD) may experience a recurrent dissection, but its frequency, risk factors, and clinical implications are not well defined. We aimed to determine the risk, associated factors, and clinical impact of recurrent CeAD. METHODS: The STOP-CAD study (Antithrombotic Treatment for Stroke Prevention in Cervical Artery Dissection) was a multicenter international retrospective observational study of patients with CeAD treated between January 2015 and June 2022. Recurrent dissection was defined as a CeAD occurring at least 7 days after the diagnosis of the index event that affects a different artery or a different segment of the same artery. Patients were followed from day 7 up to 2 years. The absolute risk of recurrent CeAD over time was calculated using Kaplan-Meier survival estimates. Multivariable logistic and Cox regression models were used to assess predictors of CeAD recurrence. RESULTS: Of the 4023 patients included in STOP-CAD, 3836 (median age 46 years, 45% women) were eligible for this analysis. During a median (interquartile range) follow-up of 295 (97–720) days, 88 (2.29%) patients had a CeAD recurrence. Median time-to-recurrent CeAD was 53 (interquartile range, 18–157) days. The estimated risk of recurrent CeAD at 2 years was 3.22% (95% CI, 2.59%–4.00%). In multivariable analyses, younger age (adjusted odds ratios, 0.98 [95% CI, 0.96–0.99]), migraine (adjusted odds ratio, 1.88 [95% CI, 1.14–3.07]), and fibromuscular dysplasia (adjusted odds ratio, 2.90 [95% CI, 1.66–5.06]) were associated with CeAD recurrence, while presenting with an ischemic stroke was associated with a lower likelihood of recurrence (adjusted odds ratio, 0.47 [95% CI, 0.29–0.75]). These associations with CeAD recurrence over time were confirmed by Cox regression analyses. Among the 88 patients with recurrent CeAD, only 5 had accompanying ischemic events (3 strokes, 2 transient ischemic attacks). CONCLUSIONS: In this retrospective study, recurrent CeAD was uncommon, approximately half of the events were diagnosed within the first 2 months of the index event, and recurrent events rarely caused new ischemic events. Younger age, migraine, absence of ischemic stroke at presentation, and signs of fibromuscular dysplasia may help identify high-risk patients.