Ballman, Karla V.

175 Background: The efficient delivery of adjuvant and salvage therapy after radical prostatectomy in patients with prostate cancer is hampered by a lack of biomarkers to assess the risk of clinically significant recurrence and progression. Methods: Mayo Clinic Radical Prostatectomy Registry (RP) patient specimens were selected from a case-control cohort with 14 years median follow-up for training and initial validation of an expression biomarker genomic classifier (GC). An independent, blinded case-cohort study of high-risk RP subjects was used to validate GC, comparing the performance of GC to a multivariate logistic regression clinical model (CM) and GC combined with clinical variables (genomic-clinical classifier, GCC) for predicting clinical recurrence (defined as positive bone or CT scan within 5 years after biochemical recurrence). The concordance index (c-index) and Cox model were used to evaluate discrimination and estimate the risk of clinical recurrence. Results: In the training subset (n=359), both GC and GCC had a c-index of 0.90 whereas CM had a c-index of 0.76. In the internal validation set (n=186), GC and GCC had a c-index of 0.76 and 0.75, while CM had a c-index of 0.69. In an independent high-risk study (n=219), GC and GCC had a c-index of 0.77 and 0.76, while CM had a c-index of 0.68. In subset analysis of Gleason score 7 patients within the high-risk group, GC and GCC showed improved discrimination with c-index of 0.78 and 0.76, respectively compared to 0.70 for CM. In the high-risk group, the risk of recurrence by GC model score quartiles at 5 years after RP was estimated at 1%, 5%, 5% and 18%. Conclusions: The GC model shows improved performance over CM in the prediction of clinical recurrence in a high-risk cohort and in subset analysis of Gleason score 7 patients. The addition of clinical variables to the GC model did not significantly contribute to classifier performance in patients with high-risk features. We are further testing the performance of the GC and GCC models and their usefulness in guiding decision-making (e.g., for the adjuvant therapy setting) in additional studies of prostate cancer clinical risk groups.

Purpose In 1998, the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approved human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2) testing guidelines to determine eligibility for HER2-directed therapy (HDT) in breast cancer. ASCO and the College of American Pathologists published immunohistochemistry (IHC) and fluorescent in situ hybridization (FISH) HER2 testing guidelines in 2007 (AC2007) and updated these guidelines in 2013 (AC2013). We compared the HER2 FISH amplification frequency using these three guidelines. Methods Patient samples that were sent to the Mayo Clinic cytogenetics laboratory for FISH testing (n = 2,851; from November 2013 to October 2014) were analyzed. Frequency of HER2 FISH amplification was examined and impact of AC2013 assessed. Results IHC results were available for 1,922 patient samples (67.4%), 137 of which were from Mayo Clinic. Distribution was 2.4% IHC 0, 7.9% IHC 1+, 84.8% IHC 2+, and 2.5% IHC 3+. Among IHC 2+ patients, HER2 FISH positivity was 11.8% (FDA), 9.4% (AC2007), and 24.1% (AC2013). Overall, 11.8% (n = 339) were positive with a FISH ratio ≥ 2.0, 1.3% (n = 35) with a FISH ratio ≥ 2.0 despite a HER2 signal < 4.0, and 3.0% (n = 86) with HER2 signal ≥ 6.0 despite FISH ratio < 2.0. Among 405 patients (14.2%) who were initially considered FISH-equivocal (ratio < 2.0 with HER2 signal ≥ 4.0, but < 6.0; AC2013), use of an alternative chromosome 17 probe reassigned 212 (7.4% overall) patients to FISH-positive and 36 (1.3% overall) patients to FISH-negative, whereas 157 (5.5% overall) patients remained equivocal. Final HER2 positivity with AC2013 (23.6%) was increased (P < .001) compared with FDA (13.1%) and AC2007 (11%) guidelines. Conclusion In a reference laboratory cohort that was highly enriched for IHC 2+ patient samples, AC2013 guidelines led to a larger number of FISH-equivocal patients. Approximately one half of these FISH-equivocal patients (7.4% overall) became HER2-positive upon alternative FISH probe testing. However, these patients would not have participated in the pivotal HDT trials. Clinical utility data on HDT benefit in these patients and other special subsets are needed.

Abstract Background: Older adults represent 50% or more of all newly diagnosed cancer patients annually; these patients have multiple morbidities, complicating treatment decision-making.. Discussions about the risks and benefits of cancer treatments might be improved by having data on estimated all-cause survival. ePrognosis (http://eprognosis.ucsf.edu/carey2.php) is an online tool validated in older adults without cancer. We compared survival estimates using ePrognosis to observed survival in a population of women with early stage breast cancer who volunteered for cooperative group studies. Methods: Participants in CALGB 49907 (n=194) and 369901 (n=809) who were age 70+ were included (total n=1003). Both studies had comparable eligibility: primary, newly diagnosed, invasive, non-metastatic breast cancer. In 49907, eligibly also included PS 0-2; in 369901 there were no PS restrictions, but women who failed a screening cognitive exam were excluded. The Carey 2-year Index from ePrognosis was used to estimate all-cause 2-year survival, based on age, sex, and daily function. Function (needing help from another person to bath and shop for groceries, difficulty walking several blocks and pushing or pulling a heavy object) was derived from the EORTC QLC-30. The Carey index from ePrognosis generates scores from 1-10, with higher scores indicating higher probability of death. Kaplan-Meier methods were used to obtain point estimates and confidence intervals for the observed 2-yr survival. A two sided z-test was used to test the hypothesis that the observed survival rate is equivalent to the predicted survival rate. Results: At two years from study entry, 921 women were alive; 56 had died, and 26 were lost to follow-up/withdrawn. The population was, on average, 76 years old (SD 4.8), primarily white (89.3%), and the majority had hormone receptor positive tumors (79.4%). In our population, the Carey 2-years index predicated survival was not significantly different than observed rates in the 0-2 points and underestimated the survival rates for patients who had 3-6 points and 7-10 points. ePrognosis Prediction49907 & 369901 PatientsPointsPredicted Probability of SurvivalNNumber of DeathsObserved Probability of Overall Survival at 2 years (%, 95% CI)p-value0-295%5332595% (93-97%)0.7433-688%4272394% (92-96%)&lt;0.0017-1064%43881% (65-90%)0.017 Conclusions: In this population of older women with breast cancer, using a few readily available data items, ePrognosis provided accurate survival estimates for women with a low probability of death (0-2 points) and underestimated all-cause survival in women with an increased probability of death (3-10 points). Further studies are needed to assess the validity of this tool in samples of cancer patients with higher risks of 2-year mortality. Extended follow-up to validate the tools in predicting 5- and 10-year all-cause and non-cancer mortality risk will further contribute to decision making in older patients. Citation Format: Kimmick G, Pitcher B, Mandelblatt J, Clapp J, Ballman K, Barginear M, Freedman R, Artz A, Klepin H, Lafky J, Hopkins J, Winer E, Hudis C, Muss H, Cohen H, Jatoi A, Hurria A. All-cause survival estimates compared to observed survival in older women with breast cancer in CALGB 49907 and 369901 (Alliance A151503). [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the Thirty-Eighth Annual CTRC-AACR San Antonio Breast Cancer Symposium: 2015 Dec 8-12; San Antonio, TX. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2016;76(4 Suppl):Abstract nr P6-09-10.

Abstract The addition of trastuzumab to chemotherapy extends survival among patients with HER2+ breast cancer. Prior work showed that trastuzumab and chemotherapy augments HER2 extracellular domain (ECD)-specific antibodies. The current study investigated whether combination therapy induced immune responses beyond HER2-ECD and, importantly, whether those immune responses were associated with survival. Pretreatment and posttreatment sera were obtained from 48 women with metastatic HER2+ breast cancer on NCCTG (now Alliance for Clinical Trials in Oncology) studies, N0337 and N983252. IgG to HER2 intracellular domain (ICD), HER2-ECD, p53, IGFBP2, CEA, and tetanus toxoid were examined. Sera from 25 age-matched controls and 26 surgically resected HER2+ patients were also examined. Prior to therapy, some patients with metastatic disease had elevated antibodies to IGFBP2, p53, HER2-ICD, HER2-ECD, and CEA, but not to tetanus toxin, relative to controls and surgically resected patients. Treatment augmented antibody responses to HER2-ICD in 69% of metastatic patients, which was highly associated with improved progression-free survival (PFS; HR = 0.5, P = 0.0042) and overall survival (OS; HR = 0.7, P = 0.038). Augmented antibody responses to HER2-ICD also correlated (P = 0.03) with increased antibody responses to CEA, IGFBP2, and p53, indicating that treatment induces epitope spreading. Paradoxically, patients who already had high preexisting immunity to HER2-ICD did not respond to therapy with increased antibodies to HER2-ICD and demonstrated poorer PFS (HR = 1.6, P &lt; 0.0001) and OS (HR = 1.4, P = 0.0006). Overall, the findings further demonstrate the importance of the adaptive immune system in the efficacy of trastuzumab-containing regimens. Cancer Res; 76(13); 3702–10. ©2016 AACR.

The clinical utility of microbiome biomarkers depends on the reliable and reproducible nature of comparative results. Underappreciation of the variation associated with common demographic, health, and behavioral factors may confound associations of interest and generate false positives. Here, we present the Midwestern Reference Panel (MWRP), a resource for comparative gut microbiome studies conducted in the Midwestern United States. We analyzed the relationships between demographic and health behavior-related factors and the microbiota in this cohort, and estimated their effect sizes. Most variables investigated were associated with the gut microbiota. Specifically, body mass index (BMI), race, sex, and alcohol use were significantly associated with microbial β-diversity (P < 0.05, unweighted UniFrac). BMI, race and alcohol use were also significantly associated with microbial α-diversity (P < 0.05, species richness). Tobacco use showed a trend toward association with the microbiota (P < 0.1, unweighted UniFrac). The effect sizes of the associations, as quantified by adjusted R 2 values based on unweighted UniFrac distances, were small (< 1% for all variables), indicating that these factors explain only a small percentage of overall microbiota variability. Nevertheless, the significant associations between these variables and the gut microbiota suggest that they could still be potential confounders in comparative studies and that controlling for these variables in study design, which is the main objective of the MWRP, is important for increasing reproducibility in comparative microbiome studies.

Abstract Purpose: The RANO criteria have not been assessed using outcome data from prospective trials. We examined the radiologic data of patients with recurrent glioblastoma from the randomized phase II trial (AVF3708g) to determine the effect of including T2/FLAIR evaluation as per RANO criteria on measurements of objective response rates (ORRs) and progression-free survival (PFS) compared with assessment based on contrast enhancement (Macdonald criteria). Experimental Design: The ORRs and median PFS were determined using the RANO criteria and compared with those obtained using the Macdonald criteria. Landmark analyses were performed at 2, 4, and 6 months, and Cox proportional hazard models were used to determine the associations between OR and progression with subsequent survival. Results: The ORRs were 0.331 [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.260–0.409] and 0.393 (95% CI, 0.317–0.472) by RANO and Macdonald criteria, respectively (P &lt; 0.0001). The median PFS was 4.6 months (95% CI, 4.1–5.5) using RANO criteria, compared with 6.4 months (95% CI, 5.5–7.1) as determined by Macdonald criteria (P = 0.01). At 2-, 4-, and 6-month landmarks, both OR status and PFS determined by either RANO or Macdonald criteria were predictive of overall survival [OS; hazard ratios for 4-month landmark (OR HR = 1.93, P = 0.0012; PFS HR, 4.23, P &lt; 0.0001)]. Conclusions: The inclusion of T2/FLAIR assessment resulted in statistically significant differences in median PFS and ORRs compared with assessment of solely enhancing tumor (Macdonald criteria), although OR and PFS determined by both RANO and Macdonald criteria correlated with OS. Clin Cancer Res; 22(3); 575–81. ©2015 AACR.