Renfro, Lindsay A.

391 Background: Prior economic analysis of a 12-gene assay (Oncotype DX), compared with patterns of care reported in the NCCN database of patients with stage II, T3, DNA mismatch repair proficient (MMR-P) colon cancer, predicted that the assay would save medical costs and improve patient well-being (Hornberger et al., Value Health, 2012). This study assessed the validity of those findings with actual adjuvant chemotherapy (aCT) recommendations. Methods: Outcomes and costs were estimated for patients with stage II, T3, MMR-P colon cancer using a Markov model. A study of 141 patients from 17 sites in the Mayo Clinic Cancer Research Consortium collected data on aCT recommended before and after knowledge of the 12-gene assay results (Srivastava et al. abstract). Quality-adjusted life years (QALY) and medical resource use after recurrence were computed using guideline-validated state-transition probability estimation methods. Risk of progression and incidence of adverse events with different aCT regimens were based on published literature. Drug and administration costs for aCT were obtained from 2012 Medicare fee schedules. One-way sensitivity analyses were conducted to evaluate parameter influence on economic impact. Results: After receiving the 12-gene assay results, physician recommendations in favor of aCT decreased 22% (95% CI 11%-32%; McNemar test p<0.001) from 73 (52%) to 42 (30%) patients. Oxaliplatin aCT and 5-FU monotherapy recommendations each declined 11%. Average aCT costs decreased $5,738 for drugs, $668 for administration, and $3,268 for adverse events management. Overall, average total direct medical costs decreased $4,203. The net effect on average patient well-being was a gain of 0.083 QALYs. Total medical costs are most influenced by change in aCT recommendations, 5-FU monotherapy efficacy, and oxaliplatin drug acquisition cost. Savings are expected to persist even if the cost of oxaliplatin dropped by >75% due to generic substitution. Conclusions: The 12-gene assayhas been shown to alter aCT recommendations for patients with stage II, T3, MMR-P colon cancer. This study provides real-world confirmation that these changes in aCT reduce direct medical costs and improve patient well-being.

659 Background: Prospective survival prediction of patients with metastatic colorectal cancer is difficult. Prognosis estimation based on readily available clinicopathologic factors has the potential to inform clinical practice and improve risk stratification for clinical trials. We constructed prognostic nomograms for OS and PFS in mCRC using the multi-trial ARCAD database. Methods: Data from 19,678 mCRC pts accrued to 24 first line randomized phase III clinical trials since 1997 were used to construct and validate Cox models for PFS and OS, stratified by treatment arm within each study. Candidate variables included age, gender, BMI, performance status, colon vs. rectal cancer, prior chemotherapy, number of metastatic sites, sites of metastases (liver, lung, lymph nodes), and baseline bilirubin, albumin, white blood cell count, hemoglobin, platelets, absolute neutrophil count, and derived neutrophil:lymphocyte ratio (dNLR). Missing data (<11%) were imputed, continuous variables modeled with splines, and clinically relevant pairwise interactions considered if p<0.001. Final models were internally validated via bootstrapping to obtain optimism-corrected calibration and discrimination C-indices, and externally validated using a 10% holdout sample from each trial. Results: Nomograms for OS and PFS including remaining variables were well calibrated with C-indices of 0.66 and 0.60, respectively. Evaluation of external validity revealed good concordance; 71% and 67% respectively between predicted (> vs. <50% probability) and actual (yes/no) 1-year OS and 6-month PFS, and median 1-year OS and 6-month PFS predictions fell within the actual 95% Kaplan-Meier intervals. Gender, liver and lung metastases, and dNLR were not prognostic for OS; prior chemo, colon vs. rectum, dNLR, liver and lymph node metastases, and gender did not predict for PFS. No clinically relevant pairwise interactions were identified. Conclusions: The proposed nomograms are well calibrated and internally and externally valid. These tools have the potential to aid prognostication and patient/physician communication, and balance risk in randomized trials in mCRC.

Purpose Factors associated with early mortality after surgery and treatment with adjuvant chemotherapy in colon cancer are poorly understood. We aimed to characterize the determinants of early mortality in a large cohort of colon cancer trial participants. Methods A pooled analysis of 37,568 patients in 25 randomized trials of adjuvant systemic therapy was conducted. Multivariable logistic regression models with several definitions of early mortality (30, 60, and 90 days, and 6 months) were constructed, adjusting for clinically and statistically significant variables. A nomogram for 6-month mortality was developed and validated. Results Median age among patients was 61 years, patient demographics included 54% men and 90% White, 29% and 71% had stage II and III disease, respectively, and 79%, 20%, and 1% had an Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status (PS) of 0, 1, and ≥ 2, respectively. Early mortality was low: 0.3% at 30 days, 0.6% at 60 days, 0.8% at 90 days, and 1.4% at 6 months. Of those patients who died by 6 months post–random assignment, 40% had documented disease recurrence prior to death. Early disease recurrence was associated with a markedly increased risk of death during the first 6 months post-treatment (hazard ratio, 82.6; 95%CI, 66.9 to 102.1). In prognostic analyses, advanced age, male sex, poorer PS, increasing ratio of positive to examined lymph nodes, earlier decade of enrollment, and higher tumor stage and grade predicted a greater likelihood of early mortality, whereas treatment received was not strongly predictive. A multivariable model for 6-month mortality showed strong optimism-adjusted discrimination (concordance index, 0.73) and calibration. Conclusion Early mortality was infrequent but more prevalent in patients with advanced age and a PS of ≥ 2, underscoring the need to carefully consider the risk-to-benefit ratio when making treatment decisions in these subgroups.

Purpose Fluorouracil plus leucovorin (FU + LV) adjuvant chemotherapy reduced the risk of recurrence and death across all time points in a pooled analysis of 20,898 patients with colon cancer from 18 randomized studies. The impact of oxaliplatin added to FU + LV on the time course of recurrence and survival remains unknown. Patients and Methods A total of 12,233 patients enrolled to the randomized trials C-07, C-08, N0147, MOSAIC (Adjuvant Treatment of Colon Cancer), and XELOXA (Adjuvant XELOX) were pooled to examine the impact of oxaliplatin and tumor-specific factors on the time course of recurrence and death. For each end point, continuous-time risk was modeled over 6 years post treatment in all oxaliplatin-treated patients and patients concurrently randomized to FU + LV with or without oxaliplatin; the latter analyses supported time-dependent treatment comparisons. Results Addition of oxaliplatin significantly reduced the risk of recurrence within the first 14 months post treatment for patients with stage II disease and within the first 4 years for patients with stage III disease. Oxaliplatin also significantly reduced risk of death from 2 to 6 years post treatment for patients with stage III disease, with no differences in timing of outcomes between treatment groups (ie, oxaliplatin did not simply postpone recurrence or death compared with FU + LV alone). Patients with stage II disease receiving oxaliplatin did not exhibit a significant reduction in risk of death in the first 6 years post treatment. Recurrence risk peaked near 14 months for both treatments, and risk of recurrence and death increased with increased tumor and nodal burden. Conclusions These analyses support the addition of oxaliplatin to fluoropyrimidine-based adjuvant therapy in patients with stage III disease and underscore the need for adequate surveillance of patients with colon cancer during the first 3 years after adjuvant therapy.

Purpose In recent retrospective analyses of early-stage colorectal cancer (CRC), low and high body mass index (BMI) scores were associated with worsened outcomes. Whether BMI is a prognostic or predictive factor in metastatic CRC (mCRC) is unclear. Patients and Methods Individual data from 21,149 patients enrolled onto 25 first-line mCRC trials during 1997 to 2012 were pooled. We assessed both prognostic and predictive effects of BMI on overall survival and progression-free survival, and we accounted for patient and tumor characteristics and therapy type (targeted v nontargeted). Results BMI was prognostic for overall survival (P < .001) and progression-free survival (P < .001), with an L-shaped pattern. That is, risk of progression and/or death was greatest for low BMI; risk decreased as BMI increased to approximately 28 kg/m 2 , and then it plateaued. Relative to obese patients, patients with a BMI of 18.5 kg/m 2 had a 27% increased risk of having a PFS event (95% CI, 20% to 34%) and a 50% increased risk of death (95% CI, 43% to 56%). Low BMI was associated with poorer survival for men than women (interaction P < .001). BMI was not predictive of treatment effect. Conclusion Low BMI is associated with an increased risk of progression and death among the patients enrolled on the mCRC trials, with no increased risk for elevated BMI, in contrast to the adjuvant setting. Possible explanations include negative effects related to cancer cachexia in patients with low BMI, increased drug delivery or selection bias in patients with high BMI, and potential for an interaction between BMI and molecular signaling pathways.

Abstract Purpose: Clinical trials are expensive and lengthy, where success of a given trial depends on observing a prospectively defined number of patient events required to answer the clinical question. The point at which this analysis time occurs depends on both patient accrual and primary event rates, which typically vary throughout the trial's duration. We demonstrate real-time analysis date projections using data from a collection of six clinical trials that are part of the IDEA collaboration, an international preplanned pooling of data from six trials testing the duration of adjuvant chemotherapy in stage III colon cancer, and we additionally consider the hypothetical impact of one trial's early termination of follow-up. Patients and Methods: In the absence of outcome data from IDEA, monthly accrual rates for each of the six IDEA trials were used to project subsequent trial-specific accrual, while historical data from similar Adjuvant Colon Cancer Endpoints (ACCENT) Group trials were used to construct a parametric model for IDEA's primary endpoint, disease-free survival, under the same treatment regimen. With this information and using the planned total accrual from each IDEA trial protocol, individual patient accrual and event dates were simulated and the overall IDEA interim and final analysis times projected. Projections were then compared with actual (previously undisclosed) trial-specific event totals at a recent census time for validation. The change in projected final analysis date assuming early termination of follow-up for one IDEA trial was also calculated. Results: Trial-specific predicted event totals were close to the actual number of events per trial for the recent census date at which the number of events per trial was known, with the overall IDEA projected number of events only off by eight patients. Potential early termination of follow-up by one IDEA trial was estimated to postpone the overall IDEA final analysis date by 9 months. Conclusions: Real-time projection of the final analysis time during a trial, or the overall analysis time during a trial collaborative such as IDEA, has practical implications for trial feasibility when these projections are translated into additional time and resources required.

Purpose This study addressed whether age is prognostic for overall survival (OS) or progression-free survival (PFS) in patients with metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC). Patients and Methods A total of 20,023 patients from 24 first-line clinical trials in the ARCAD (Aide et Recherche en Cancérologie Digestive) database were analyzed. Primary age effects and interactions with age, sex, performance status (PS), and metastatic site were modeled using Cox proportional hazards stratified by treatment arm within study. Results Of total patients, 3,051 (15%) were age ≤ 50 years. Age was prognostic for both OS (P < .001) and PFS (P < .001), with U-shaped risk (ie, highest risk was evident in youngest and oldest patients). Relative to patients of middle age, the youngest patients experienced 19% (95% CI, 7% to 33%) increased risk of death and 22% (95% CI, 10% to 35%) increased risk of progression. The oldest patients experienced 42% (95% CI, 31% to 54%) increased risk of death and 15% (95% CI, 7% to 24%) increased risk of progression or death. This relationship was more pronounced in the first year of follow-up. Age remained marginally significant for OS (P = .08) when adjusted for PS, sex, and presence of liver, lung, or peritoneal metastases, and age was significant in an adjusted model for PFS (P = .005). The age effect did not differ by site of metastatic disease, year of enrollment, type of therapy received, or biomarker mutational status. Conclusion Younger and older age are associated with poorer OS and PFS among treated patients with mCRC. Younger and older patients may represent higher-risk populations, and additional studies are warranted.

Abstract Purpose. The Oncotype DX colon cancer assay is a clinically validated predictor of recurrence risk in stage II colon cancer patients. This prospective study evaluated the impact of recurrence score (RS) results on physician recommendations regarding adjuvant chemotherapy in T3, mismatch repair-proficient (MMR-P) stage II colon cancer patients. Patients and Methods. Stage IIA colon cancer patients were enrolled in 17 centers. Patient tumor specimens were assessed by the RS test (quantitative reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction) and mismatch repair (immunohistochemistry). For each patient, the physician's recommended postoperative treatment plan of observation, fluoropyrimidine monotherapy, or combination therapy with oxaliplatin was recorded before and after the RS and mismatch repair results were provided. Results. Of 221 enrolled patients, 141 patients had T3 MMR-P tumors and were eligible for the primary analysis. Treatment recommendations changed for 63 (45%; 95% confidence interval: 36%–53%) of these 141 T3 MMR-P patients, with intensity decreasing for 47 (33%) and increasing for 16 (11%). Recommendations for chemotherapy decreased from 73 patients (52%) to 42 (30%), following review of RS results by physician and patient. Increased treatment intensity was more often observed at higher RS values, and decreased intensity was observed at lower values (p = .011). Conclusion. Compared with traditional clinicopathological assessment, incorporation of the RS result into clinical decision making was associated with treatment recommendation changes for 45% of T3 MMR-P stage II colon cancer patients in this prospective multicenter study. Use of the RS assay may lead to overall reduction in adjuvant chemotherapy use in this subgroup of stage II colon cancer patients.