Jones, Michael E.

Abstract Background Breast cancer is etiologically heterogeneous, but which risk factors differ in their associations across tumor subtypes remains unclear. We conducted a large, pooled analysis to evaluate independent, dose-response associations between breast cancer risk factors and quantitative tumor features. Methods Analyses of 15,731 invasive breast cancers from 24 studies evaluated associations (p-trend) between reproductive and hormonal factors, body mass index (BMI), alcohol, smoking, and family history in relation to quantitative immunohistochemistry measures on tissue microarrays (ER, PR, HER2, KI67, TP53) and tumor grade. Analyses in a subset of 10 population-based studies estimated subtype-specific odds ratios (ORs) comparing cases to controls. A Bayesian False Discovery Probability (BFDP) <0.2 was used to identify associations with strong statistical evidence. Results Nulliparity and later age at menopause were associated with higher ER-positivity (p-trend=0.021 and 0.001, respectively), with corresponding OR[ER+] (95% CI) = 1.49 (1.16-1.90) for nulliparous vs. parous and 1.07 (1.03-1.11) per 5 years. Current combined menopausal hormone therapy (MHT) use was associated with lower grade (p-trend<0.001), with OR [grade1] = 3.37 (2.69-4.21) for current vs. never users. Higher BMI was associated with lower ER-positivity and higher grade in premenopausal women (p-trend<0.001 and <0.001), with OR[ER+] = 0.80 (0.74-0.87) and OR[grade1] = 0.75 (0.63-0.88) per 5 units, and with higher PR-positivity and higher grade in postmenopausal women (p-trend<0.001 and <0.001), with OR[PR+] = 1.08 (1.03-1.14) and OR[grade 3] = 1.10 (1.04-1.17) per 5 units. Conclusion This pooled analysis of 15,731 cases showed that nulliparity, age at menopause, MHT, and BMI have independent, dose-response associations with ER, PR, and grade, clarifying patterns of etiologic heterogeneity. Associations with HER2, KI67 and TP53, or other risk factors did not meet our threshold for strong evidence.

Abstract Context Prior reports of plasma estradiol concentrations and their reference ranges in postmenopausal women identified marked variation, in part due to assay method and body mass index (BMI). Objective To develop an international reference range for plasma estradiol in postmenopausal women, support accurate assessment of concentrations during systemic and local (eg, vaginal) estradiol therapy, and improve risk prediction for diseases, including osteoporosis, breast, and endometrial cancers. Methodology Estradiol concentrations were measured using primarily liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS) assays in 5 international cohorts of community-dwelling, postmenopausal women of primarily European ancestry aged 38-100 years who were not using exogenous estrogens (n = 7206). Measurements were harmonized to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) reference measurement procedure (RMP) by re-assaying a subset of samples for each cohort and generating recalibration equations. Reference intervals were determined for all women, non-obese women, and specific BMI categories. Results Estradiol concentrations from separate LC-MS/MS assays correlated closely with the CDC RMP, and harmonization minimized inter-assay variability. Estradiol concentrations correlated with BMI but not with chronological age. The reference range (2.5th-97.5th percentile) was 1.1-18.2 pg/mL (4.0-66.8 pmol/L) with median of 4.9 pg/mL (18.0 pmol/L) for all postmenopausal women and 1.1-12.5 pg/mL (4.0-45.9 pmol/L) with median of 4.1 pg/mL (15.1 pmol/L) for non-obese women (BMI < 30). Reference ranges increased progressively with higher BMI categories. Conclusion Cross-calibration of estradiol measurements with the CDC RP enabled the development of harmonized plasma estradiol reference ranges for postmenopausal women who were not using exogenous estrogens, suitable for future studies to establish clinical utility. Increasing obesity in postmenopausal women was associated with increasing estradiol concentration and BMI category-specific reference ranges.

Abstract BRCA-associated homologous recombination deficiency (HRD) is present in ~ 50% of high-grade serous carcinomas (HGSC) and predicts sensitivity to platinum-based therapy. However, there is little understanding of why some patients with BRCA-deficient tumors experience unexpectedly poor outcomes. We profiled 154 tumors, enriched for patients with BRCA-deficient tumors that experienced short overall survival (≤ 3 years, n = 42), using whole-genome, transcriptome, and methylation analyses. All but one BRCA-deficient tumor exceeded an accepted HRD genomic scarring threshold. However, patients with BRCA1-deficient HGSC with a more elevated HRD score survived significantly longer. Patients with BRCA2-deficient HGSC and loss of NF1 survived twice as long as those without NF1 loss, whereas PIK3CA or RAD21 amplification defined BRCA2-deficient HGSC with exceptionally short survival. BRCA1-deficient tumors in short survivors had evidence of immunosuppressive c-kit signaling and EMT. In a large HGSC cohort (n = 1,389) including 282 individuals with pathogenic germline BRCA variants (gBRCApv), the location of the mutation within functional domains stratified clinical outcomes. Notably, residual disease after primary surgery had limited prognostic effect in gBRCApv-carriers compared to non-carriers. Our findings indicate that tumor HR proficiency in the context of therapy response and survival is not a binary property, and highlight genomic and immune modifiers of outcomes in BRCA-deficient HGSC.

Abstract Purpose: The purpose of this study was to evaluate RB1 expression and survival across ovarian carcinoma histotypes and how co-occurrence of BRCA1 or BRCA2 (BRCA) alterations and RB1 loss influences survival in tubo-ovarian high-grade serous carcinoma (HGSC). Experimental Design: RB1 protein expression was classified by immunohistochemistry in ovarian carcinomas of 7,436 patients from the Ovarian Tumor Tissue Analysis consortium. We examined RB1 expression and germline BRCA status in a subset of 1,134 HGSC, and related genotype to overall survival (OS), tumor-infiltrating CD8+ lymphocytes, and transcriptomic subtypes. Using CRISPR-Cas9, we deleted RB1 in HGSC cells with and without BRCA1 alterations to model co-loss with treatment response. We performed whole-genome and transcriptome data analyses on 126 patients with primary HGSC to characterize tumors with concurrent BRCA deficiency and RB1 loss. Results: RB1 loss was associated with longer OS in HGSC but with poorer prognosis in endometrioid ovarian carcinoma. Patients with HGSC harboring both RB1 loss and pathogenic germline BRCA variants had superior OS compared with patients with either alteration alone, and their median OS was three times longer than those without pathogenic BRCA variants and retained RB1 expression (9.3 vs. 3.1 years). Enhanced sensitivity to cisplatin and paclitaxel was seen in BRCA1-altered cells with RB1 knockout. Combined RB1 loss and BRCA deficiency correlated with transcriptional markers of enhanced IFN response, cell-cycle deregulation, and reduced epithelial–mesenchymal transition. CD8+ lymphocytes were most prevalent in BRCA-deficient HGSC with co-loss of RB1. Conclusions: Co-occurrence of RB1 loss and BRCA deficiency was associated with exceptionally long survival in patients with HGSC, potentially due to better treatment response and immune stimulation.

PURPOSE There is strong evidence that leisure-time physical activity is protective against postmenopausal breast cancer risk but the association with premenopausal breast cancer is less clear. The purpose of this study was to examine the association of physical activity with the risk of developing premenopausal breast cancer. METHODS We pooled individual-level data on self-reported leisure-time physical activity across 19 cohort studies comprising 547,601 premenopausal women, with 10,231 incident cases of breast cancer. Multivariable Cox regression was used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs for associations of leisure-time physical activity with breast cancer incidence. HRs for high versus low levels of activity were based on a comparison of risk at the 90th versus 10th percentiles of activity. We assessed the linearity of the relationship and examined subtype-specific associations and effect modification across strata of breast cancer risk factors, including adiposity. RESULTS Over a median 11.5 years of follow-up (IQR, 8.0-16.1 years), high versus low levels of leisure-time physical activity were associated with a 6% (HR, 0.94 [95% CI, 0.89 to 0.99]) and a 10% (HR, 0.90 [95% CI, 0.85 to 0.95]) reduction in breast cancer risk, before and after adjustment for BMI, respectively. Tests of nonlinearity suggested an approximately linear relationship ( Pnonlinearity = .94). The inverse association was particularly strong for human epidermal growth factor receptor 2–enriched breast cancer (HR, 0.57 [95% CI, 0.39 to 0.84]; Phet = .07). Associations did not vary significantly across strata of breast cancer risk factors, including subgroups of adiposity. CONCLUSION This large, pooled analysis of cohort studies adds to evidence that engagement in higher levels of leisure-time physical activity may lead to reduced premenopausal breast cancer risk.

Background Polygenic risk score (PRS), calculated based on genome-wide association studies (GWASs), can improve breast cancer (BC) risk assessment. To date, most BC GWASs have been performed in individuals of European (EUR) ancestry, and the generalisation of EUR-based PRS to other populations is a major challenge. In this study, we examined the performance of EUR-based BC PRS models in Ashkenazi Jewish (AJ) women. Methods We generated PRSs based on data on EUR women from the Breast Cancer Association Consortium (BCAC). We tested the performance of the PRSs in a cohort of 2161 AJ women from Israel (1437 cases and 724 controls) from BCAC (BCAC cohort from Israel (BCAC-IL)). In addition, we tested the performance of these EUR-based BC PRSs, as well as the established 313-SNP EUR BC PRS, in an independent cohort of 181 AJ women from Hadassah Medical Center (HMC) in Israel. Results In the BCAC-IL cohort, the highest OR per 1 SD was 1.56 (±0.09). The OR for AJ women at the top 10% of the PRS distribution compared with the middle quintile was 2.10 (±0.24). In the HMC cohort, the OR per 1 SD of the EUR-based PRS that performed best in the BCAC-IL cohort was 1.58±0.27. The OR per 1 SD of the commonly used 313-SNP BC PRS was 1.64 (±0.28). Conclusions Extant EUR GWAS data can be used for generating PRSs that identify AJ women with markedly elevated risk of BC and therefore hold promise for improving BC risk assessment in AJ women.

Abstract Background Breast cancer (BC) patients with a germline CHEK2 c.1100delC variant have an increased risk of contralateral BC (CBC) and worse BC‐specific survival (BCSS) compared to non‐carriers. Aim To assessed the associations of CHEK2 c.1100delC, radiotherapy, and systemic treatment with CBC risk and BCSS. Methods Analyses were based on 82,701 women diagnosed with a first primary invasive BC including 963 CHEK2 c.1100delC carriers; median follow‐up was 9.1 years. Differential associations with treatment by CHEK2 c.1100delC status were tested by including interaction terms in a multivariable Cox regression model. A multi‐state model was used for further insight into the relation between CHEK2 c.1100delC status, treatment, CBC risk and death. Results There was no evidence for differential associations of therapy with CBC risk by CHEK2 c.1100delC status. The strongest association with reduced CBC risk was observed for the combination of chemotherapy and endocrine therapy [HR (95% CI): 0.66 (0.55–0.78)]. No association was observed with radiotherapy. Results from the multi‐state model showed shorter BCSS for CHEK2 c.1100delC carriers versus non‐carriers also after accounting for CBC occurrence [HR (95% CI): 1.30 (1.09–1.56)]. Conclusion Systemic therapy was associated with reduced CBC risk irrespective of CHEK2 c.1100delC status. Moreover, CHEK2 c.1100delC carriers had shorter BCSS, which appears not to be fully explained by their CBC risk.

AbstractOur objective was to test whether p53 expression status is associated with survival for women diagnosed with the most common ovarian carcinoma histotypes (high‐grade serous carcinoma [HGSC], endometrioid carcinoma [EC], and clear cell carcinoma [CCC]) using a large multi‐institutional cohort from the Ovarian Tumor Tissue Analysis (OTTA) consortium. p53 expression was assessed on 6,678 cases represented on tissue microarrays from 25 participating OTTA study sites using a previously validated immunohistochemical (IHC) assay as a surrogate for the presence and functional effect of TP53 mutations. Three abnormal expression patterns (overexpression, complete absence, and cytoplasmic) and the normal (wild type) pattern were recorded. Survival analyses were performed by histotype. The frequency of abnormal p53 expression was 93.4% (4,630/4,957) in HGSC compared to 11.9% (116/973) in EC and 11.5% (86/748) in CCC. In HGSC, there were no differences in overall survival across the abnormal p53 expression patterns. However, in EC and CCC, abnormal p53 expression was associated with an increased risk of death for women diagnosed with EC in multivariate analysis compared to normal p53 as the reference (hazard ratio [HR] = 2.18, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.36–3.47, p = 0.0011) and with CCC (HR = 1.57, 95% CI 1.11–2.22, p = 0.012). Abnormal p53 was also associated with shorter overall survival in The International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics stage I/II EC and CCC. Our study provides further evidence that functional groups of TP53 mutations assessed by abnormal surrogate p53 IHC patterns are not associated with survival in HGSC. In contrast, we validate that abnormal p53 IHC is a strong independent prognostic marker for EC and demonstrate for the first time an independent prognostic association of abnormal p53 IHC with overall survival in patients with CCC.

Abstract Breast cancer (BC) patients with a germline CHEK2 c.1100delC variant have an increased risk of contralateral BC (CBC) and worse BC-specific survival (BCSS) compared to non-carriers. We aimed to assess the associations of CHEK2 c.1100delC, radiotherapy, and systemic treatment with CBC risk and BCSS. Analyses were based on 82,701 women diagnosed with invasive BC including 963 CHEK2 c.1100delC carriers; median follow-up was 9.1 years. Differential associations of treatment by CHEK2 c.1100delC status were tested by including interaction terms in a multivariable Cox regression model. A multi-state model was used for further insight into the relation between CHEK2 c.1100delC status, treatment, CBC risk and death. There was no evidence for differential associations of therapy with CBC risk by CHEK2 c.1100delC status The strongest association with reduced CBC risk was observed for the combination of chemotherapy and endocrine therapy [HR(95%CI): 0.66 (0.55–0.78)]. No association was observed with radiotherapy. Results from the multi-state model showed shorter BCSS for CHEK2 c.1100delC carriers versus non-carriers also after accounting for CBC occurrence [HR(95%CI) :1.30 (1.09–1.56)]. In conclusion, systemic therapy was associated with reduced CBC risk irrespective of CHEK2 c.1100delC status. Moreover, CHEK2 c.1100delC carriers had shorter BCSS, which appears not to be fully explained by their CBC risk. (Main MS: 3201 words)

AbstractBackgroundCyclin E1 (CCNE1) is a potential predictive marker and therapeutic target in tubo‐ovarian high‐grade serous carcinoma (HGSC). Smaller studies have revealed unfavorable associations for CCNE1 amplification and CCNE1 overexpression with survival, but to date no large‐scale, histotype‐specific validation has been performed. The hypothesis was that high‐level amplification of CCNE1 and CCNE1 overexpression, as well as a combination of the two, are linked to shorter overall survival in HGSC.MethodsWithin the Ovarian Tumor Tissue Analysis consortium, amplification status and protein level in 3029 HGSC cases and mRNA expression in 2419 samples were investigated.ResultsHigh‐level amplification (>8 copies by chromogenic in situ hybridization) was found in 8.6% of HGSC and overexpression (>60% with at least 5% demonstrating strong intensity by immunohistochemistry) was found in 22.4%. CCNE1 high‐level amplification and overexpression both were linked to shorter overall survival in multivariate survival analysis adjusted for age and stage, with hazard stratification by study (hazard ratio [HR], 1.26; 95% CI, 1.08‐1.47, p = .034, and HR, 1.18; 95% CI, 1.05‐1.32, p = .015, respectively). This was also true for cases with combined high‐level amplification/overexpression (HR, 1.26; 95% CI, 1.09‐1.47, p = .033). CCNE1 mRNA expression was not associated with overall survival (HR, 1.00 per 1‐SD increase; 95% CI, 0.94‐1.06; p = .58). CCNE1 high‐level amplification is mutually exclusive with the presence of germline BRCA1/2 pathogenic variants and shows an inverse association to RB1 loss.ConclusionThis study provides large‐scale validation that CCNE1 high‐level amplification is associated with shorter survival, supporting its utility as a prognostic biomarker in HGSC.