Faldu, Priyansh

Abstract Background Red blood cell distribution width (RDW) is an easily accessible diagnostic test that is underutilized as a prognostic marker, despite substantial supporting evidence in cancer, cardiovascular diseases, and helathy individuals (Pilling et al. PLoS One 2028;13:e0203504). The association between increased RDW and incident acute myeloid leukemia (AML) has long been suggested in healthy volunteers (Abelson et al. Nature 2019;559:400). We looked into a similar phenomenon in patients with polycythemia vera (PV) or essential thrombocythemia (ET) in large discovery and validation cohorts. Methods A machine learning (ML) approach was used to identify baseline clinical and laboratory parameters that were predictive of leukemic transformation (LT) and develop a predictive model in a large discovery cohort of PV and ET, obtained from electronic medical records of the Maccabi Healthcare Services (MHS; Tel-Aviv, Israel). Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was utilized to determine the optimal cutoff points for RDW and other continuous variables. Mayo Clinic databases (Rochester, MN, USA) for patients with PV and ET were utilized as validation cohorts. Identification of study patients in the latter was according to the International Consensus Classification (Arber et al. Blood 2022; 140:1200) while in the discovery cohort was based on presence of ICD-9 codes associated with documentation of disease-specific driver mutations or treatment records that are consistent. Statistical analyses were performed using the R statistical software 4.4.2 (November, 2024) (Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria) or JMP Pro 18.0.0 software (SAS Institute, Cary, NC, USA). Results The discovery cohorts from Israel included 4,592 patients with PV (median age 63 yesrs; 53% males) and 5,968 with ET (median age 61 yesrs; males 40%). The validation cohorts from the Mayo Clinic included 633 PV (median 65 years; 51% males) and 634 ET (median 60 years; females 64%) patients that were informative for RDW. In the discovery cohorts, median follow-up (incident AML) was 6.1 years (N=186; 4.1%) in PV and 6.1 years (N=85; 1.4%) in ET. The corresponding values for the validation cohorts were 6.6 years (N=24; 3.8%) in PV and 7.0 years (N=22; 3.5%) in ET. Discovery cohort analyses Covariate-adjusted Cox regression analysis was utilized to estimate associations between LT and several clinical variables followed by machine learning pipeline to predict LT in a given timeframe. Conversion from continuous to binary variables was accompliched by ROC analysis. Shapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) application enabled selection of top-ranked features that included RDW >15.5 (HR 3.2, 1.1-9.5; p=0.03), age >60 years (HR 2.9, 1.4-5.9; p<0.01), and LDH >1.5 x UNL (HR 4.0 (1.6-10.0; p<0.01). A similar analysis in ET also identified RDW >15.5 (p<0.01), age >60 years (p=0.01) as well as male sex (p=0.03) as independent risk factors for LT. Subseqent risk models based on these risk factors were externally validated and enabled robust risk stratification with 10-20 year AUCs rangening from 0.75 to 0.81. Validation cohorts analyses The indpendent predictive value of increased RDW observed in the discovery cohort was confirmed in the validation cohorts for both PV and ET and further gender-specified: female/male RDW ≥16.4/15.8 in PV (HR 7.9, 1.9-33.8) and ≥16.1/14.4 in ET (HR 5.1, 2.2-11.9). Also confirmed were the additional prognostic contributions of age ≥60 years (HR 3.8, 1.3-10.9) and LDH >1.5 x UNL (HR 3.9, 1.6-9.4), in PV, while no other clinical risk factor showed RDW-independent prognostic relevance in ET. The prognostic impact of RDW in ET was most apparent in females (p<0.01), as opposed to males (p=0.32) while the effect was equally significant in PV. In multivariable analysis that included previously recognized high risk mutations in PV (SRSF2) and ET (SF3B1), both RDW and mutations sustained significance (p<0.05). Conclusion The current study identifies higher RDW as a key risk factor for LT in both PV and ET, independent of other clinical or genetic risk factors. Possible underlying mechanisms include increased RDW as a marker of long-term pre-leukemic clones with sub-clinical ineffective erythropoiesis or an associated pro-leukemic inflammatory state.

Abstract Background Although myeloproliferative neoplasm-unclassifiable (MPN-U) stands as a distinct entity in the International Consensus Classification (ICC) for myeloproliferative neoplasms, its diagnosis and management remain challenging due to the overlapping clinico-pathological characteristics with other MPNs. In the current study, we describe a well-defined cohort of patients with MPN-U and compare their presentation and outcome with those of a separate cohort with essential thrombocythemia (ET). Methods Diagnostic criteria were according to the ICC (Blood 2022; 140:1200). Non-driver mutations were screened by next-generation sequencing (NGS) and were available for subsets of patients with MPN-U or ET. Conventional statistical methods were employed, using JMP Pro 18.0.0 software SAS Institute, Cary, NC, USA. Results Thirty Mayo Clinic patients who met the ICC criteria for MPN-U (median age 64 years; range 33-94; 60% males) and 658 with ET (median age 60 years; range 18-90; 36% males) were included in the current study. Table 1 outlines a comparative list of presenting characteristics (including mutations), clinical outcomes, and treatment details between patients with MPN-U vs. ET. JAK2 mutations were significantly more prevalent in MPN-U cohort (87% vs. 63% in ET; p<0.01) and CALR mutations less common (3% vs. 25%; p<0.01). Other somatic mutations, including ASXL1, SRSF2, and EZH2 were more frequently observed in the MPN-U group (p<0.05 in all). Abnormal karyotype was reported in 14% of patients with MPN-U vs. 8% with ET (p=0.3). Compared to patients with ET, those with MPN-U were more likely to be males (60% vs. 36%; p<0.01) and, as expected from disease presentation and indications for diagnostic work up of suspected cases, present with venous thrombosis (43% vs. 10%; p<0.01) and palpable splenomegaly (40% vs. 8.5%; p<0.01). Similarly, they were less likely to display thrombocytosis or leukocytosis (p<0.01 for both). Portal, superior mesenteric, and hepatic vein thromboses constituted 77% (vs. 27% in ET; p<0.01) of the venous events in MPN-U; in contrast, the incidences of pre-diagnosis arterial events were similar between the two groups (10% vs. 12%; p=0.7). At a median follow-up of 2.8 years in the MPN-U cohort, 6 (20%) deaths and 1 (3%) leukemic transformation were documented while 3 (10%) patients progressed to meet the diagnostic criteria for polycythemia vera. Four (13%) patients with MPN-U experienced venous thrombo-embolic events (VTEs) including 2 with recurrent VTEs, despite active therapy with systemic anticoagulation and aspirin. The ET cohort was followed for a median of 7.3 years with 161 (24%) deaths, 23 (3%) leukemic transformations, and 66 (10%) VTEs. Among the latter, 27 (41%) had recurrent episodes despite treatment with systemic anticoagulation, aspirin, and/or cytoreductive drugs. Notably, patients with MPN-U were less likely to receive aspirin and cytoreductive therapy during the clinical course (77% vs. 91% and 37% vs. 79%; p<0.01 for both, respectively). Long-term survival rates were similar between MPN-U and ET (15-year survival 70% vs. 65%; p=0.1). Consistent with previous associations seen in ET, patients with JAK2-mutated MPN-U were more likely to be males (58% vs. 30%; p<0.01, Table 2), and display a lower platelet and leukocyte count at the time of diagnosis (p<0.01 for both). These patients were also more likely to present with venous thrombosis (50% vs. 12% in JAK2 wild-type cases; p<0.01) and palpable splenomegaly (46% vs. 9%; p<0.01). Of note, the incidences of pre- and post-diagnosis arterial and post-diagnosis venous events were similar between JAK2-mutated MPN-U vs. JAK2-mutated ET patients (12% vs. 14%; p=0.7, 4% vs. 12.5%; p=0.1, and 15% vs. 12%, p=0.6, respectively). Similarly, long-term outcomes including deaths (15% vs. 26%; p=0.2), leukemic transformations (4% vs. 4%; p=0.9), and 15-year survival rates (78% vs. 60%; p=0.9) were also comparable between the two groups. Conclusion The findings from the current study were not unexpected and underline the ongoing challenges that face formal classification systems in formulating accurate diagnostic criteria for patients with MPN-U whose clinical presentation is biased by disease definitions. Regardless, it is comforting to document a favorable long-term outcome that appeared to be similar to that of ET while venous thrombosis remains a treatment challenge in both groups.

ABSTRACT Survival prediction models in essential thrombocythemia (ET) include the International Prognostic Scoring System (IPSET) and the more recently introduced triple‐A (AAA) prognostic score. The latter enlists age and absolute neutrophil (ANC) and lymphocyte (ALC) counts as risk variables. In the current study, a Mayo Clinic discovery cohort of 658 patients with ET was used to identify AAA‐independent risk variables. Accordingly, multivariable analysis‐derived HRs (95% CI) were 15.7 (8.4–29.5) for age > 70 years (8 points); 4.2 (2.3–7.5) for age 50 to 70 years (2 points); 1.8 (1.2–2.5) for ANC ≥ 8 × 10 9 /L (1 point); 1.4 (1.03–1.9) for ALC < 1.7 × 10 9 /L (1 point); 1.8 (1.2–2.6) for absolute monocyte count (AMC) ≥ 0.5 × 10 9 /L (1 point); 1.8 (1.2–2.3) for male sex (1 point); 1.8 (1.3–2.4) for arterial hypertension (1 point); and 1.6 (1.2–2.3) for arterial thrombosis (1 point). HR‐weighted scoring enabled a 4‐tiered risk classification: ultra‐low (0–1 points; N = 94; median survival 42.7 years), low (2–4 points; N = 297; 23 years), intermediate (5 points; N = 66; 17.3 years), and high (6–14 points; N = 201; 10.8 years). Time‐dependent predictive performance at 20/25 years favored AAA + (AUC 0.92/0.91) vs. AAA (0.86/0.86) vs. IPSET (0.81/0.84). The AAA + risk model was subsequently validated by two external cohorts from Israel ( N = 5968) and Italy ( N = 682). In the cohort from Israel, disease‐specific mortality was assessed by comparing observed survival to an age‐ and sex‐matched reference population, which suggested near‐normal life expectancy in ultra‐low risk patients. The current study highlights host‐related factors as the primary determinants of longevity in ET and provides a composite risk score (AAA + ) that is based on complete blood count‐derived parameters and host‐related factors. Predictive performance of the new model was shown to be superior to that of IPSET and AAA.

6579 Background: Treatment strategies in chronic myelomonocytic leukemia (CMML) are not standardized and include hydroxyurea (HU) and hypomethylating agents (HMA). In a phase 3 study comparing HU and decitabine, in proliferative CMML, response rates were higher for decitabine (56% vs 31%; p<0.01) but overall survival was similar (p=0.67) between the two groups (Itzykson, R. JCO, 2023. 41:1888). In the current retrospective study, we examined the survival impact of different treatment strategies among 457 Mayo Clinic patients with CMML. Methods: The current study was conducted under institutional review board approved minimum risk protocols allowing retrospective patient data collection and analysis. Diagnostic criteria were according to the International Consensus Classification (Arber et al. Blood 2022. 140:1200). All statistical analyses were conducted using JMP 17 software. For survival analysis, patients were censored at time of allogeneic stem cell transplant (ASCT). Results: A total of 457 patients were considered (median age 72 years; 68% males). 209 patients received CMML-directed therapy: HU (N=102), HMA (N=78; azacitidine 32 and decitabine 46). Responses were adjudicated separately for leukocytosis and anemia; normalization of leukocyte count was achieved in 21% vs. 16 % (p<0.01) for HU vs. HMA and overall response in anemia in 1% vs. 9% (p=0.02), respectively. Overall survival did not appear to be impacted by different treatment strategies at any stage of CMML; (i) treated vs. untreated (p=0.3), (ii) HU vs. HMA for first-line therapy (p=0.3), and (iii) HU/HMAs vs. other drugs as first-line therapy (p=0.1). Blast transformation-free survival (BTFS) was also similar between HU vs. HMA as well as HU/HMA vs. other drugs. In univariate analysis, BTFS was inferior in patients receiving CMML-directed therapy (p<0.01); the particular association (HR 2; 95% CI 1.2-3.3) retained its significance in multivariable analysis that also included other risk factors for BTFS: bone marrow blast ≥10% (HR 4.3), circulating blast ≥2% (HR 2.7), WBC ≥13 x 10 9 /L (HR 1.8), and ASXL1 mutation (HR 1.7). Conclusions: In the current retrospective study that included a large number of patients with CMML, chemotherapy with HU or HMA did not appear to affect overall survival but might have increased the risk of blast transformation. The study also suggests superiority of HU for the treatment of leukocytosis and HMA for anemia. Predictors of blast transformation-free survival (BTFS) in 457 patients diagnosed with chronic myelomonocytic leukemia (CMML). BTFS Univariable analysis p-value (HR) Multivariable analysis p-value (HR) CMML-directed therapy <0.01 (2.9; 1.8-4.7) <0.01 (2; 1.2-3.3) Bone marrow blasts ≥10% <0.01 (12.4) 0.01 (4.3) Circulating blasts ≥2% <0.01 (5.2) <0.01 (2.7) WBC ≥13 x 10 9 /L <0.01 (2.9) 0.02 (1.8) ASXL1 mut <0.01 (2.1) 0.02 (1.7)

e18600 Background: Recent studies have suggested that basophilia in myeloproliferative neoplasms (MPN), in general, and in primary myelofibrosis (PMF), in particular, might be associated with poor prognosis. In the current study, we examined for clinical and genotype correlates as well as the prognostic impact of absolute eosinophil (AEC) and basophil (ABC) counts in essential thrombocythemia (ET) and polycythemia vera (PV). Methods: Diagnostic criteria were according to the International Consensus Classification. Study patients were selected based on the availability of information on AEC and ABC. Institutional reference range for AEC was 0.03 to 0.48 x 10 9 /L and for ABC 0.01 to 0.08 x 10 9 /L. "Eosinophilia" was defined as an AEC of ≥0.5 x 10 9 /L. "Basophilia" was evaluated both at an ABC of ≥0.1 x 10 9 /L and ABC of ≥0.3 x 10 9 /L, the latter representing 3 x the upper limit of the normal reference range. Results: Essential thrombocythemia 660 patients were considered. Median (range) values for AEC and ABC were 0.2 x 10 9 /L (0-2.8) and 0.07 x 10 9 /L (0-1.7), respectively. On univariate analysis, AEC and ABC, as continuous variables, were predictive of inferior overall (OS; p<0.01 for both) but not leukemia-free (LFS), myelofibrosis-free (MFFS), venous thrombosis-free (VTFS), or arterial thrombosis-free (ATFS) survival. In univariable analysis, AEC ≥0.5 x 10⁹/L and ABC ≥0.1 x 10⁹/L negatively impacted OS (p<0.01 for both); significance was sustained during multivariate analysis that included IPSET risk variables: AEC ≥0.5 x 10⁹/L (p<0.01; HR 1.9) and ABC ≥0.1 x 10 9 /L (p<0.01; HR 1.7). Polycythemia vera 478 patients were considered. Median (range) values for AEC and ABC were 0.27 x 10 9 /L (0-6.5) and 0.12 x 10 9 /L (0-3.2), respectively. In univariable analysis, neither AEC nor ABC, as continuous variables were predictive of OS, LFS, MFFS, VTFS, or ATFS. AEC ≥0.5 x 10⁹/L also did not have any impact on disease progression or thromboses. However, ABC ≥0.1 x 10 9 /L was associated with a lower risk of post-diagnosis arterial thrombosis (p=0.03; HR 0.6), and ABC ≥0.3 x 10 9 /L was predictive of inferior LFS (p<0.01; HR 6.5) and MFFS (p<0.01; HR 2.5). ABC ≥0.3 x 10 9 /L sustained prognostic relevance in LFS (p<0.01; HR 7.6) during multivariable analysis that included leukocytosis, platelet count, basophil percentage, age, and palpable splenomegaly. Similar findings were noted with regards to MFFS for ABC ≥0.3 x 10 9 /L (p=0.01; HR 2.3) when compared against palpable splenomegaly and age. Conclusions: The current study suggests that AEC ≥0.5 x 10 9 /L and ABC ≥0.1 x 10 9 /L in ET are independently associated with shortened overall survival, while basophilia (ABC ≥0.3 x 10 9 /L) in PV is an independent predictor of leukemic and myelofibrotic disease progression.

Background Conventional thrombosis risk stratification in polycythemia vera (PV) considers age &gt; 60 years and thrombosis history for assignment to low (no risk factor) or high (at least 1 risk factor) risk category (J Clin Oncol.2011;29(6):761-70). The current study exclusively focused on low-risk PV with the following objectives: i) estimate the incidence of arterial and venous thrombosis; ii) examine the prognostic relevance of clinical and genetic risk factors for thrombosis; and iii) assess the impact of treatment on thrombosis risk. Methods Patients were retrospectively recruited from the Mayo Clinic, USA, and University of Florence, Italy, PV databases. Diagnosis was according to the International Consensus Classification criteria (Blood 2022;140:1200). Only first major arterial (AT) and unprovoked venous thrombosis (VT) were considered. Conventional statistical methods were applied (JMP Pro 17.0.0, SAS Institute, Cary, NC, USA). Results Mayo Clinic cohort A total of 346 patients with low-risk PV were considered: median age 49 years; males 54%; median hemoglobin 17.7 g/dl; median leukocyte count 10.9 x 109/L; leukocyte count &gt;11 x 109/L 49%; median platelet count 471 x 109/L; cardiovascular (CV) risk factors 47%; hypertension 29%; hyperlipidemia 20%; smoking history 12%; diabetes mellitus 5%. Most frequent mutations, other than JAK2, were ASXL1 (13%) and TET2 (13%). Median follow-up was 13.4 years (1-52) (4,636 patient-years) during which 25 (7%) AT and 20 (6%) VT were documented. The corresponding incidence rates were 5.4 and 4.3 per 1,000 patient-years. In multivariable logistic regression analysis, baseline hemoglobin &gt;17.5 g/dl in women or &gt;20 g/dl in men (15% vs 4%; OR 5.1; p&lt;0.01) and absence of leukocytosis &gt;11 x 109/L (10% vs 4%; OR 2.9; p=0.02) were associated with increased risk of AT; in addition, diabetes mellitus (19% vs 7%; OR 3.9; p=0.06), showed borderline significance; overall incidence of AT was 20% in the presence of ≥2 risk factors (n=61), 7% in the presence of one risk factor (n=177), and 1% in the absence of all three risk factors (n=108; p&lt;0.01). Multivariable analysis for arterial thrombosis-free survival (TFS) confirmed the predictive performance of these risk factors: hemoglobin thresholds (HR 4.4; p&lt;0.01); absence of leukocytosis &gt;11 x 109/L (HR 2.7; p=0.03); and diabetes (HR 2.8; p=0.09); 20-year cumulative incidence of AT was 32% in the presence of ≥2 risk factors and 7% otherwise (p&lt;0.01). In multivariable analysis, smoking history was found to be surprisingly protective against VT (0% vs. 7%; p=0.02) while female gender was associated with a borderline higher risk (8% vs 4%; OR 2.2; p=0.09); VT incidence rates were 9% in the presence of both risk factors (n=144), 4% with one risk factor (n=172), and 0% in the absence of both risk factors (n=40; p=0.02); 20-year cumulative incidence of VT was 10% in the presence of both risk factors and 3% otherwise (p=0.03). ASXL1 and TET2 mutations did not appear to modify the risk of either VT (p=0.59) or AT (p=0.66). Treatment at diagnosis included aspirin and cytoreductive therapy in 63% and 24% of patients, respectively. Aspirin but not cytoreductive therapy was associated with a lower incidence of AT (5% vs 11%; 2.3 vs 3.0 per 1,000 patient-years; p=0.04) and VT (4% vs 10%; 1.9 vs 2.8 per 1,000 patient-years; p=0.03). Thrombosis-free survival was not influenced by documented treatment at diagnosis or at the time of event (p&gt;0.1). University of Florence cohort A total of 284 low-risk PV patients were followed for a median of 9.1 years (1-38) with 19 (7%) AT and 24 (8%) VT events recorded; the corresponding incidence rates were 7.4 and 9.3 per 1,000 patient-years. In this Florence cohort, risk factors for AT were diabetes mellitus (HR 3.9), hyperlipidemia (HR 3.8) and advanced age, with only age remaining significant during multivariable analysis (p=0.03). Predictors of VT included hyperlipidemia (HR 4.2) and hypertension (HR 2.1). Treatment with aspirin or cytoreductive therapy did not impact thrombosis-free survival (p&gt;0.1). Conclusion The current study confirms the infrequent occurrence of AT and VT in low-risk PV but also exposes the challenges in identifying risk factors that are reproducible in different but otherwise well-characterized patient cohorts. Discrepancies were also apparent in retrospective comparison of treatment effects on thrombosis, which reinforces the need for prospective studies.