Vachon, Celine M.

Image-derived artificial intelligence (AI) risk models have shown promise in short-term risk assessment for improving breast cancer (BC) screening. No image-derived long-term AI risk model for primary prevention has been developed and externally validated. Individuals aged 31 to 94 years were recruited between 2010 and 2020 in two population-based case cohorts (Olmsted County, Minnesota, US, and KARMA, Sweden) and one hospital-based case-control study (EMBED, Atlanta, US). Median follow-up in the case cohorts was 10 years, with BCs diagnosed through June 2022. Additional validation was performed in EMBED with 3-year follow-up. An AI risk model was developed in Sweden, and we report independent validation in Olmsted/KARMA/EMBED. Absolute 10-year risks were estimated at study entry. Time-dependent discriminatory performance [AUC( t )] and expected-to-observed events (E/O) were estimated. Comparisons were performed with clinical risk tools and the image-based Mirai tool. Across Olmsted/KARMA, 8696 individuals (mean age, 54.4±10.6) and 1633 individuals with incident BC (mean age, 57.0±10.6) were included. Average 10-year risks were 3.83 and 3.14%, and E/O ratios were 0.99 and 0.99. Ten-year AUC( t ) for invasive BCs were 0.72 in Olmsted and 0.72 in KARMA. Similar discriminatory results were observed in EMBED. Our AI risk tool performed significantly better than Mirai in Olmsted/KARMA/EMBED. In KARMA, in the top 10% of high-risk individuals, the AI risk tool predicted 33% of BCs compared with 23%/20%/24% predicted by Tyrer-Cuzick-v8/BCSC-v3/Mirai (all P < 0.01). The 10-year image-derived AI risk model showed significantly higher performance than clinical risk models and Mirai in diverse populations, supporting its clinical potential for primary prevention.

Abstract Context Prior reports of plasma estradiol concentrations and their reference ranges in postmenopausal women identified marked variation, in part due to assay method and body mass index (BMI). Objective To develop an international reference range for plasma estradiol in postmenopausal women, support accurate assessment of concentrations during systemic and local (eg, vaginal) estradiol therapy, and improve risk prediction for diseases, including osteoporosis, breast, and endometrial cancers. Methodology Estradiol concentrations were measured using primarily liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS) assays in 5 international cohorts of community-dwelling, postmenopausal women of primarily European ancestry aged 38-100 years who were not using exogenous estrogens (n = 7206). Measurements were harmonized to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) reference measurement procedure (RMP) by re-assaying a subset of samples for each cohort and generating recalibration equations. Reference intervals were determined for all women, non-obese women, and specific BMI categories. Results Estradiol concentrations from separate LC-MS/MS assays correlated closely with the CDC RMP, and harmonization minimized inter-assay variability. Estradiol concentrations correlated with BMI but not with chronological age. The reference range (2.5th-97.5th percentile) was 1.1-18.2 pg/mL (4.0-66.8 pmol/L) with median of 4.9 pg/mL (18.0 pmol/L) for all postmenopausal women and 1.1-12.5 pg/mL (4.0-45.9 pmol/L) with median of 4.1 pg/mL (15.1 pmol/L) for non-obese women (BMI &lt; 30). Reference ranges increased progressively with higher BMI categories. Conclusion Cross-calibration of estradiol measurements with the CDC RP enabled the development of harmonized plasma estradiol reference ranges for postmenopausal women who were not using exogenous estrogens, suitable for future studies to establish clinical utility. Increasing obesity in postmenopausal women was associated with increasing estradiol concentration and BMI category-specific reference ranges.

Abstract Background: Monoclonal B-cell lymphocytosis (MBL), a precursor to chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL), is an understudied yet common premalignant condition present in ~8 million adults in the United States. Based on flow cytometry, MBL can be classified into two immunophenotypes: CLL-type (CD5, CD23, and CD20 co-expression) and non-CLL-type (CD5-negative). While the majority of the data to date pertains to CLL-type MBL, the available evidence indicates non-CLL-type MBL is also associated with an increased risk of hematologic malignancies. Clonal hematopoiesis of indeterminate potential (CHIP) is another precursor condition associated with hematologic malignancies. The relationship between non-CLL-type MBL and CHIP and their combined effect remains unknown. Herein, we report findings on these two precursor conditions in the largest screening cohort to date. Methods: Using flow cytometry, we screened for MBL in the Mayo Clinic Biobank participants who were 40 years or older with no prior history of hematologic cancers. Using whole-exome sequencing of whole-blood DNA, CHIP was screened on 291 genes related to myeloid (56 genes) or lymphoid malignancies (235 genes). Incident hematologic malignancies were detected during follow-up using International Classification of Diseases (ICD) codes in the medical record. All diagnoses were manually reviewed for confirmation. Multivariable logistic regression was used to evaluate the association between non-CLL-type MBL and CHIP. Time to incident hematologic malignancy was calculated from date of MBL screening to the earliest date of incident malignancy, withdrawal, death, last medical visit, or study end. Overall survival (OS) was calculated from date of MBL screening to date of death or last known alive. Multivariable Cox regression, adjusted for age, sex and residency, was used to investigate associations between non-CLL-type MBL and CHIP with clinical outcomes; with results reported using hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI). Results: In total, 8,802 individuals with MBL screening and CHIP data were analyzed. Non-CLL-type MBL was detected in 249 (2.8%) individuals; 121 (49%) were male, and median age was 78 years (range, 47-95). We identified 757 (8.6%) individuals with CHIP in at least one of the 291 genes tested. The most frequently mutated CHIP genes were DNMT3A, TET2, ASXL1, PPM1D, and TP53. A total of 47 (0.5%) individuals had both non-CLL-type MBL and CHIP; the four genes with the highest number of CHIP variants in these individuals were DNMT3A (n=16), TET2 (n=10), ASXL1 (n=3), and ATM (n=3). An association between non-CLL-type MBL and any CHIP (OR=1.6, 95%CI:1.2-2.3, P=0.006) was observed. When analyzing CHIP in genes related to myeloid malignancies, the association with non-CLL-type MBL was also significant (OR=1.6, 95%CI:1.1-2.3, P=0.012); however, the association was not statistically significant for genes related to lymphoid malignancies (OR=1.6, 95%CI:0.8-3.3, P=0.165). With a median follow-up of 5.4 years, 104 individuals developed incident hematologic malignancies (66 lymphoid and 38 myeloid malignancies). Non-CLL-type MBL (HR=3.5, 95%CI:1.9-6.5, P&lt;0.001) and CHIP (HR=3.2, 95%CI:2.1-5.1, P&lt;0.001) were each associated with increased risk of incident hematologic malignancies. Co-existence of both precursor conditions was associated with a substantially higher risk of incident hematologic malignancies (HR=10.3, 95%CI:4.0-26.2, P&lt;0.001) compared to individuals with neither precursor condition. Among individuals with non-CLL-like MBL, any CHIP was a borderline significant predictor for incident hematologic malignancy (HR=3.6, 95%CI:1.0-12.9, P=0.049). Compared to individuals with no precursor conditions, OS was not significantly different in those with non-CLL-type MBL-only (HR=1.1, 95%CI:0.8-1.5, P=0.40), those with CHIP-only (HR=1.2, 95%CI:0.99-1.4, P=0.06), or those with both CHIP and non-CLL-type MBL (HR=1.3, 95%CI:0.8-2.1, P=0.39). Conclusions: In the largest screening cohort to date evaluating the relationship of CHIP and non-CLL-type MBL, we found that non-CLL-type MBL and CHIP are associated with each other. Individuals with non-CLL-type MBL were more likely to have CHIP variants in DNMT3A, TET2, ASXL1, and ATM. Among individuals with non-CLL-type MBL, the presence of any CHIP was associated with increased risk of developing hematologic malignancy.

Abstract Background Mosaic chromosomal alterations (mCAs) are large-scale somatic gains, losses, or copy-neutral loss of heterozygosity (CNLOH) detectable by genotyping of peripheral blood DNA. They represent a form of clonal hematopoiesis and are observed in 0.5-5% of cancer-free individuals. The presence of any autosomal mCA has been associated with &gt;3-fold risk of hematological malignancies. In particular, mCAs occurring in regions related to lymphoid malignancies have an 11-fold increased risk of lymphoid malignancies and a 68.6-fold risk for chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL). Monoclonal B-cell lymphocytosis (MBL), the precursor state to CLL, is defined by &lt;5×10⁹/L clonal B cells in otherwise healthy individuals and is classified as low-count (&lt;0.5x109/L) or high-count (0.5-5x10⁹/L) based on clonal B-cell count. MBL is also associated with increased risk of lymphoid malignancy (beyond CLL), with 4.3-fold and 74-fold risk in individuals with low- and high-count MBL, respectively. We previously reported a significant enrichment of autosomal mCAs in MBL, demonstrating a 1.7-fold association in those with low-count MBL and a 50.5-fold association in those with high-count MBL. Whether mCAs independently predict lymphoid malignancy risk after accounting for MBL status is unknown. Here, we evaluated the impact of mCAs on risk of incident lymphoid malignancies in individuals with MBL and in individuals screened negative for MBL. Methods CLL-type MBL (CD5 positive) was identified using flow cytometry assay on peripheral blood. Participants were age ≥40, had no prior hematologic malignancy, and were enrolled through the Mayo Clinic Biobank or the Division of Hematology at Mayo Clinic, Rochester. Participants were followed for incident lymphoid malignancy, including CLL, with diagnoses confirmed by medical record review. mCAs with cell fraction &gt;1% were detected from array-based genotyping of whole blood DNA. Cox proportional hazards models, adjusted for age and sex, estimated hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for risk of developing an incident lymphoid malignancy in individuals with autosomal mCA versus those without an autosomal mCA. Results In 4,331 participants with available MBL and mCA status, the median age was 67 years, and 45% were male. Flow cytometry identified 3,231 individuals who screened negative for MBL, 754 individuals with low-count MBL, and 346 individuals with high-count MBL. Autosomal mCAs were present in 6.5% of individuals without MBL, 7.6% with low-count MBL, and 71.1% with high-count MBL. Over a median follow-up of 6.9 years, 237 individuals developed an incident lymphoid malignancy. The most common types were CLL, multiple myeloma, and diffuse large B-cell lymphoma. Ignoring MBL status, the presence of an autosomal mCA was associated with increased risk of lymphoid malignancy (HR = 2.65; 95% CI: 1.45–4.86; P = 0.002), replicating previous results. However, after excluding individuals with MBL, this association attenuated; those with mCA alone did not have a significantly elevated risk (HR = 1.60; 95% CI: 0.57-4.52; P = 0.38) compared to individuals without MBL or mCA. We next examined the effect of mCAs among individuals with MBL. In those with low-count MBL, the most frequent mCA events were 13q loss (2.1%), 12 gain (1.9%), and 4q CNLOH (1.2%), and individuals with an mCA had a borderline significant risk of developing a lymphoid malignancy (HR = 2.78; 95% CI: 1.01–7.67; P = 0.049) compared to those without an mCA. Similarly, in those with high-count MBL, the most frequent mCA events were 13q loss/CNLOH (31.2%), 12 gain (13.0%), and 11q loss (4.9%), and the presence of an mCA conferred an increased risk compared to those without mCA (HR = 1.51; 95% CI: 1.09-2.08; P = 0.012). Conclusions Autosomal mCAs were more frequent in individuals with high-count MBL compared to those with low-count or no MBL. mCAs showed limited predictive value for lymphoid malignancy among individuals without MBL. In contrast, in individuals with low-count MBL, autosomal mCAs emerged as a potential biomarker for identifying those at risk of developing a lymphoid malignancy. In high-count MBL, mCAs were also a biomarker, but were driven by known chromosomal abnormalities identified through clinical testing. These findings suggest that the utility of mCAs as a predictive marker for lymphoid malignancy is contingent on the presence of MBL and may inform risk stratification and surveillance strategies in this population.

Background: Discovering risk biomarkers in small benign breast disease (BBD) biopsies is constrained by scarce tissue and microanatomic heterogeneity of terminal duct lobular units (TDLUs). We tested whether tissue-sparing tissue microarray (TMA)–based Digital Spatial Profiling (DSP) can deliver reproducible, biologically coherent protein measurements across benign lobules and breast cancers (BCs), and how well DSP aligns with standard immunoassays. Methods: We performed a pilot using tissues from the Mayo Clinic BBD cohort using TMAs representing four contexts: terminal duct lobular units (TDLUs) from BBD biopsies preceding BC and matched BBD-controls, subsequent BCs, and BC-associated TDLUs. We profiled 79 proteins by DSP (37 retained after QC) and benchmarked against chromogenic IHC and OPAL immunofluorescence. Reproducibility was evaluated using intraclass correlation coefficients (ICCs), cross-platform agreement (weighted kappa), marker correlations, and mixed-effects models with false-discovery-rate (FDR) control. Results: We analyzed 368 BBD-TDLU cores (88 cases; 88 controls), 204 BC cores and 110 BC-associated TDLU cores. ICCs were highest in BC tissues, and lower in BC-associated TDLUs and BBD-TDLUs. Agreement was slight–to-fair in TDLUs but moderate (ER/PR) to substantial (BCL2) in BC. DSP recapitulated expected immunologic correlations (CD45 with T-cell, B-cell, and macrophage markers) and tissue-type gradients (BC > BC-associated TDLUs > BBD-TDLUs). Exploratory case–control differences in BBD-TDLUs did not persist after FDR control. Conclusions: TMA-based DSP is feasible in archival breast tissues and yields biologically coherent, cross-platform-benchmarked profiles that are particularly robust in BC, while conserving scarce TDLUS and clarifying current limits of single-marker risk stratification from benign lobules. These data provide a foundation for refined sampling and expanded panels in future TDLU-focused studies.

Background/Objectives: Family history is a known risk factor for multiple myeloma (MM) and its precursor condition, monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance (MGUS). Previous genome-wide association studies (GWASs) have identified 35 common loci associated with MM risk and 21 associated with MGUS. The objective of this study was to identify less common and rare genetic loci predisposing to MM/MGUS through whole-exome sequencing (WES)-based linkage analysis. Methods:Multipoint linkage analysis was conducted using the Multipoint Engine for Rapid Likelihood Inference (MERLIN) with the Lander–Green algorithm on germline WES data from 79 pedigrees with 2 or more affected relatives (120 MM, 86 MGUS, and 21 unaffected). Genome-wide linkage was evaluated using 12,946 independent single-nucleotide variants (linkage disequilibrium r2 < 0.05). Results: Significant linkage was observed at chromosome 6q22.33–q24.2 by the non-parametric model (logarithm-of-odds (LOD) = 3.3) and suggestive linkage by the dominant parametric model (heterogeneity LOD (HLOD) = 2.5). Fourteen rare variants within this region were prioritized using family-specific partial LOD scores and in silico functional prediction tools. Nine of these variants, REPS1, THEMIS, TAAR6, AHI1, VNN1, VNN3, MTFR2/FAM54A, LAMA2, and PHACTR2, overlapped immune-regulatory regions in blood cell lines and were not previously identified in GWASs. Conclusions: This study demonstrates the utility of applying a linkage analysis framework to familial WES data for identifying genomic regions and candidate genes that may contribute to MM/MGUS predisposition. These findings provide new insight into the inherited risk and etiology of familial MM and MGUS.

Abstract Background Molecular breast imaging (MBI) has shown utility as a supplement to mammography in women with dense breasts. Background parenchymal uptake (BPU), which describes the level of Tc-99m sestamibi in fibroglandular tissue on MBI, varies among women with similar density. Higher BPU is associated with greater breast cancer risk. The goal of this work is to investigate the histological correlations of BPU that may explain this association with risk. Methods We compared histologic features of prospectively collected benign breast tissue biopsies from healthy women who had a region of dense tissue on mammography exhibiting one of the extreme categories of BPU on MBI: either photopenic or marked. Tissue composition of specimens was assessed by measuring area of epithelium, stroma, and fat and counting lobules. Lobular involution status was assessed by an expert pathologist as either none, partial, or complete. Ki-67 index and estrogen receptor-alpha expression were also assessed. Results Biopsies were performed in 48 women (mean age 54.9 years [SD 11.1 years]), including 20 with marked BPU and 28 with photopenic BPU. Women with marked BPU were younger (mean age 49.9 vs. 58.4 years, p = 0.004), had higher body mass index ( p = 0.01), and were more likely premenopausal ( p = 0.005). Marked BPU specimens had a higher proportion of epithelium (14.5% vs. 2.2%, p < 0.001), lower stromal content (44.8% vs. 84.2%, p = 0.005), similar fat (18.9% vs. 12.9%, p = 0.41), and greater lobule counts (15.5 vs. 6.3, p < 0.001) compared to photopenic specimens. Complete lobular involution was less frequent in marked tissue than in photopenic tissue (10.5% vs. 76%, p < 0.001). Ki-67 index was higher in marked BPU tissues (5.4% vs. 1.6%, p = 0.006), though the difference was attenuated after adjustment for epithelial area (p = 0.26). Estrogen receptor-alpha expression did not differ between marked and photopenic groups (25.6% vs. 28.4%, p = 0.12). Conclusions Marked BPU on MBI is associated with greater epithelial content, less lobular involution, and higher proliferative activity—features characteristic of tissue at elevated risk for malignant transformation. These findings suggest that BPU provides functional information beyond mammographic density, supporting its role as an imaging biomarker for breast cancer risk in women with dense breasts. Trial Registration: NCT01240278 and NCT01588834

Importance Inherited pathogenic variants (PVs) in known predisposition genes can greatly increase breast cancer risk, but the combined impact of PV status, family history, and other factors on breast cancer risk in the general US population has not been well described. Objective To evaluate population-based breast cancer risk estimates for those with established PVs overall and stratified by first-degree family history of breast cancer and other factors. Design, Setting, and Participants This study used pooled data from 13 US-based breast cancer case-control studies participating in the Cancer Risk Estimates Related to Susceptibility (CARRIERS) consortium. Enrollment for individual studies occurred between 1976 and 2013, and results are based on data released March 2023, with analyses conducted from June 2022 to July 2025. Exposures PVs, breast cancer family history, self-reported race and ethnicity, and established risk factors. Main Outcomes and Measures Breast cancer rate ratios for PVs in 7 genes were estimated from the CARRIERS consortium. PV status and incidence and mortality statistics were combined using the Individualized Coherent Absolute Risk Estimation (iCARE) model to estimate conditional cumulative breast cancer risks and 95% CIs, stratified by family history and standardized to the US population. Models that incorporated population-based data and published estimates for established epidemiologic risk factors were also evaluated. Results A total of 67 692 women were studied, including 33 841 who were diagnosed with breast cancer. PVs in ATM , BRCA1 , BRCA2 , CHEK2 , and PALB2 were strongly associated with breast cancer risk, with BRCA1 and PALB2 PVs showing evidence of heterogeneity by family history. In models considering PVs, family history, and established risk factors, the estimated cumulative risks of breast cancer by age 50 years ranged from 2.4% (95% CI, 2.4-2.4) in women with no PVs and no family history to 35.5% (95% CI, 21.6-55.1) in PALB2 PV carriers with a family history. Among women who have not been diagnosed with breast cancer by age 50 years, the cumulative risk of breast cancer by age 80 years ranged from 11.1% (95% CI, 11.0-11.2) in noncarriers with no family history to 70.5% (95% CI, 52.8-83.5) for PALB2 carriers with a family history. PV-specific cumulative risk estimates varied across subgroups defined by race and ethnicity and potentially modifiable epidemiologic risk factors. Conclusions and Relevance In this study, population-based estimates of cumulative breast cancer risk for established PVs, as informed by the CARRIERS case-control sample, varied by family history and potentially modifiable risk factors. These estimates provide guidance for identifying individuals who will most benefit from enhanced screening and prevention strategies.

ImportanceEtiologic heterogeneity in breast carcinogenesis needs to be well characterized for targeted prevention. Associations between menopausal hormonal therapy (MHT) and oral contraceptive (OC) use and breast cancer intrinsic-like subtypes are not well understood.ObjectiveTo examine whether exogenous hormone use is differentially associated with breast cancer subtypes and to evaluate heterogeneity by intrinsic-like subtypes.Design, Setting, and ParticipantsThis study pooled data from 31 nested and population-based case-control studies involved in the Breast Cancer Association Consortium. The study population included individuals with breast cancer and control participants from 13 case-control studies nested in prospective cohorts (recruited between 1982 and 2011) and 18 population-based case-control studies (recruited between 1990 and 2013). Data analysis was performed in June 2024.ExposureMHT use (estrogen-progestin therapy [EPT] or estrogen-only therapy [ET]) in postmenopausal women and OC use in premenopausal women (never, past use, or current use).Main Outcomes and MeasuresBreast cancer intrinsic-like subtypes (luminal A–like, luminal B–like, luminal B–ERBB2 [formerly HER2 or HER2/neu]-like, ERBB2 enriched–like, or triple-negative) were determined by immunohistochemistry of tumor sections. Polytomous logistic regression was performed to estimate the association between exogenous hormones and risk of breast cancer by intrinsic-like subtypes. Analyses by subtypes were stratified by body mass index (BMI [calculated as weight in kilograms divided by height in meters squared]; healthy weight, 18.5-&amp;lt;25; overweight, 25-&amp;lt;30; or obesity, ≥30).ResultsThis study included 42 269 individuals with breast cancer (11 901 [28.2%] premenopausal and 30 368 [71.8%] postmenopausal; 23 353 [55.2%] had a known intrinsic-like subtype) and 71 072 control participants. The mean (SD) age of all participants was 57.9 (10.9) years. In postmenopausal women, associations between current MHT use (EPT or ET) and breast cancer differed by subtype. Current EPT users with healthy weight were more likely to be diagnosed with luminal A–like (odds ratio [OR], 2.51 [95% CI, 2.26-2.80]) or luminal B–ERBB2-like (OR, 1.95 [95% CI, 1.61-2.37]) subtypes. These associations were attenuated but remained for individuals with overweight (OR, 1.40 [95% CI, 1.02-1.92]) or obesity (OR, 1.68 [95% CI, 1.01-2.78]). EPT use increased the odds of being diagnosed with luminal B–like tumors solely in women with healthy weight (OR, 1.47 [95% CI, 1.17-1.86]). Current ET use was positively associated with luminal A–like disease in women with healthy weight only (OR, 1.16 [95% CI, 1.01-1.32]), showing inverse associations with higher BMI (obesity: OR, 0.65 [95% CI, 0.50-0.85]). In premenopausal women, recent OC use was associated with luminal B–ERBB2-like (OR, 1.50 [95% CI, 1.09-2.08]), ERBB2 enriched–like (OR, 2.33 [95% CI, 1.55-3.51]), and triple-negative (OR, 1.75 [95% CI, 1.33-2.29]; P &amp;lt; .04 for heterogeneity) tumors.Conclusions and RelevanceIn this study, clear differences were observed in associations between current EPT use and luminal-like breast cancer subtypes and other subtypes. EPT users with healthy weight were more likely to be diagnosed with luminal-like breast cancer compared with nonusers. Subtype heterogeneity was less apparent in associations of OC and ET use. Future studies on contemporary formulations, patterns of use, and routes of administration of exogenous hormone usage are warranted.

Three-dimensional radiomic analysis of digital breast tomosynthesis outperformed two-dimensional measures in breast cancer risk assessment.