Antonioli, Elisabetta

Abstract Abstract 5148 INTRODUCTION. Patients presenting with a clinical picture of essential thrombocythemia (ET) can actually have an early/prefibrotic myelofibrosis (PMF), according to current WHO criteria, in about 18% of cases. Laboratory tests which are significantly different in early/prefibrotic PMF as compared with histologically confirmed ET (WHO-ET) include decreased gender-matched hemoglobin (Hb), increased white blood cell (WBC), platelet (PLT) counts and lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) values. AIM. To evaluate sensitivity (SE) and specificity (SP) of blood cell counts and LDH, at presentation, for the diagnosis of early/prefibrotic PMF vs. WHO-ET. METHODS. Five hundred thirty-six cases (50%) who had complete laboratory data measured at diagnosis constituted the exploratory set of our study and were derived from an international ET database. The discriminatory ability of Hb, WBC, PLT and LDH in correctly classifying patients in the early/prefibrotic PMF or WHO-ET groups was initially tested by plotting their Receiving Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves and comparing the relative Areas Under the Curve (AUC) with the value of 0.50 (which stands for the completely useless of the test). Three parameters with statistically significant discriminatory power were chosen (Hb, WBC and LDH) and thresholds searched in order to guarantee at least 90% of SE or SP. Finally, a diagnostic algorithm was designed. The validation set of this analysis was constituted by 321 patients with WHO-ET (n=62) or early/prefibrotic PMF (n=259) diagnosed by the same pathologist who confirmed the training set cohort and collected in the Institute for Pathology, University of Cologne, Germany. SE and SP for the same parameters and thresholds as well as the final diagnostic algorithm were applied to this set of patients to demonstrate the results' reproducibility. RESULTS. Sensitivity and specificity to recognize early/prefibrotic PFM have been evaluated by ROC curves. The best performance was found for LDH (AUC = 0.7059). WBC and Hb had super imposable curves, with AUC of 0.6279 and 0.6257, respectively. The worst performance was registered for PLT count: its AUC was only 0.5628, not significantly different from the reference value of 0.50 (p=0.154). Thresholds of Hb, WBC and LDH were searched to achieve at least 90% of SE or SP. HB < 12 g/dL for women or <13 g/dL for men, and WBC >= 13 x109/L had higher SP (92% and 91%, respectively). High SP is highly related to the presence of early/prefibrotic PMF (true positives). On the contrary, LDH < 200 mU/mL and WBC < 7 x109/L had good sensitivity (91% and 94%, respectively). High SE is highly related to the absence of early/prefibrotic PMF (true negatives). By applying these SE and SP values in a step-by-step algorithm, nearly half of patients (48%) could be classified as WHO-ET or early/prefibrotic PMF, assuming at each step a margin of error of less than 10%. For the remaining 50% of patients, laboratory results didn't allow to suspect or exclude the presence of early/prefibrotic PMF. In the validation set of 321 patients classified by WHO 2008 as true ET or early/prefibrotic PMF (Cologne cohort) SP of anemia was 84%, WBC < 7 x109/L or >= 13 x109/L had 91% and 81% of SE and SP, respectively. LDH values < 200 mU/mL had 85% of SE. By applying the same flow-chart, 46% of patients were classified as WHO-ET or early/prefibrotic PMF. CONCLUSIONS. The present study provides clinicians with laboratory parameters that should increase suspicion of early/prefibrotic PMF in a patient with a working clinical diagnosis of ET. In fact, while patients presenting clinically with ET can now be discriminated as true ET or early/prefibrotic PMF by adopting the WHO 2008 criteria that require bone marrow histology, an algorithm including baseline anemia, WBC count and LDH, allows this differentiation in about 50% of patients with a good approximation. However, for a definitive proof, bone marrow histology is still an integral part for final diagnosis. Disclosures: Vannucchi: Novartis: Honoraria.

Abstract Abstract 1746 Diagnosis of essential thrombocythemia (ET) has been updated in the last World Health Organization (WHO) classification, that provides a guideline to distinguish ET from early/prefibrotic primary myelofibrosis. These two conditions differ in term of disease evolution and survival (Barbui et al, J. Clin. Oncol. 2011). To design a prognostic model for survival in WHO-defined ET (International Prognostic Score for Essential Thrombocythemia, IPSET), we studied 891 patients with strict WHO diagnostic criteria. Demographics have been presented elsewhere (Barbui et al, J. Clin. Oncol. 2011). We tested the prognostic impact on survival of age, prior thrombosis, leukocyte count, platelet count, hemoglobin level, JAK mutational status, splenomegaly. Harrell's C concordance statistics were used to set the best cutoff levels of continuous variables in order to predict survival. Univariate Cox proportional hazard regression showed that age over 60 years (P<.0001), leukocyte count greater than 11 x109/L (P<.0001), anemia (P=.04), platelet count greater than 1000 x109/L (P<.004) and prior history of thrombosis (P< 0001) were significant risk factors for survival. Age over 60 years (hazard ratio-HR- 6.5, 95% CI: 3.9–10.7; P<.0001), leukocyte count greater than 11 × 109/L (HR: 3.1, 95% CI: 2–4.7; P<.0001) and prior history of thrombosis (HR: 2.9, 95% CI: 1.9–4.5; P< 0001) retained statistical significance on survival by multivariable analysis and were included in the new prognostic model. We assigned each factor an integer weight close to the corresponding HR in the multivariable Cox regression: weight 2 for age over 60 years; weight 1 for leukocyte count greater than 11 x109/L and for prior thrombosis. Finally, we defined the IPSET score by allocating patients into three risk categories with significantly different survival according to the sum of weights: low risk (sum of weights=0; n= 342; median survival not reached), intermediate risk (sum=1-2; N=374; median survival 24.5 years), and high risk (sum=3-4, n=158; median survival 13.8 years). Fisher exact test did not reveal a difference in the distribution of the causes of death among IPSET categories. We validated the model in two independent cohorts: one from Germany (132 WHO-defined ET) and another from France (234 ET patients not strictly diagnosed according to WHO). Log rank test and Cox regression showed significant differences in term of survival among IPSET categories in both series. Finally, we designed an age-specific IPSET model for patients younger than 60 years (IPSET-y). Using the same methodology, we found that age over 45 years (weight 2), leukocyte count greater than 11 × 109/L (weight 1) and prior history of thrombosis (weight 1) were independent risk factors for survival. IPSET-y defined three risk categories (LR, sum=0; IR, sum=1-2; HR, sum=3–4) with a median survival not reached in LR and IR, and of 22.3 years in HR. In conclusion, IPSET, based on age over 60 years, leukocyte count greater than 11 x109/L and history of thrombosis allows prognostic assessment of WHO-defined ET. The validation process makes IPSET applicable in all patients phenotypically appearing as ET. IPSET models may be useful for treatment decision-making. Disclosures: Vannucchi: Italfarmaco: Consultancy; Novartis: Honoraria. Gisslinger:AOP Orphan Pharmaceuticals AG: Research Funding.

Abstract Abstract 3846 INTRODUCTION There is strong evidence indicating that the clear-cut separation of prefibrotic primary myelofibrosis (PMF) from essential thrombocythemia (ET) by consequent application of the World Health Organization (WHO) 2008 criteria is reflected in different, well defined clinical pictures and divergent prognoses (Barbui et al, JCO 2011,Thiele et al, Blood 2011). Very recently the specific risk profile for arterial and venous thrombosis in WHO- diagnosed ET was published (Carobbio et al, Blood 2011). In PMF so far all published data on vascular events were exclusively based on overt disease manifestations until now there are no data available regarding prefibrotic stages. Consequently, we aimed to evaluate the corresponding risk profile of patients with WHO-diagnosed prefibrotic PMF. METHODS A total number of 264 patients with WHO-defined prefibrotic PMF derived from either the Medical University of Vienna or an International Database (Barbui et al, JCO 2011) were studied. Nonfatal thrombotic events considered in this study were reported as rates per 100 patient-years and included transient ischemic attacks, thrombotic cerebrovascular accidents, coronary artery disease, myocardial infarction, peripheral arterial disease, deep vein thrombosis of peripheral vasculature, pulmonary embolism, and abdominal large vein thrombosis. Cardiovascular risks factors considered, comprised of arterial hypertension, diabetes mellitus and tobacco use. To evaluate risk factors for total thrombosis and for arterial and venous events in particular multivariate Cox- regression analysis including the co-variables sex, age, previous thrombotic event, laboratory parameters measured at diagnosis and need for cytoreductive and/or antiplatelet therapy during follow-up was calculated. P values less than 0.05 were considered as statistically significant. RESULTS After a median follow- up of 5.8 years (range0.0 – 27.2), the total rate of non fatal thrombotic events was 2.1% patient-years (95% CI, 1.5–2.8); the incidence of arterial events was higher (1.7% patient- years) than of venous events (0.6% patient-years).Considering thrombosis in general a higher white blood cell (WBC) count enhances the risk significantly (p=0.005; HR 1.15). This is also true in arterial events in particular (p=0.047; HR 1.12). A lower platelet count is associated with a higher risk for thrombotic events; for thrombosis in general this association is of borderline significance (p=0.056; HR 0.99), for arterial thrombosis in particular of significance (p= 0.042; HR 0.99). A lower hemoglobin level is associated with a higher risk for venous thrombosis (p=0.007; HR 0.59). CONCLUSION Leukocytosis appears as a risk factor for thrombosis in general and also for arterial thrombosis in particular in WHO-diagnosed prefibrotic PMF. Moreover, higher platelet counts seem to decrease significantly the risk for thrombotic events in general and arterial thrombosis in particular. Anemia is associated with a higher risk for venous thrombosis. These observations are partly in line with recently published findings in WHO-diagnosed ET (Carobbio et al,2011) and might indicate the existence of a specific risk profile for thrombotic events in prefibrotic PMF. This is the first study reporting data on the risk profile for thrombosis in WHO-diagnosed prefibrotic PMF. Certainly these findings ask for validation in a larger patient population. Disclosures: Gisslinger: Novartis: Speakers Bureau; Celgene Austria: Research Funding, Speakers Bureau; AOP-Orphan Pharmaceuticals AG: Speakers Bureau. Vannucchi:Novartis: Honoraria.

Abstract Abstract 457 Introduction- The 2008 World Health Organization (WHO) diagnostic criteria for myeloproliferative neoplasms (MPN) underscore the role of bone marrow (BM) morphology in distinguishing essential thrombocythemia (ET) from early, and at times prefibrotic, primary myelofibrosis (PMF) that clinically presents like ET. The value of such a distinction in predicting clinical outcome has been questioned by some investigators. Study Design- Clinician scientists and hematopathologists from seven international centers of excellence for ET convened to design a clinicopathologic database of patients locally diagnosed and treated as ET. Study eligibility criteria included availability of treatment-naïve BM specimens obtained within one year of diagnosis. All bone marrows subsequently underwent a central blinded re-review by the author of the pertinent WHO chapter (JT) who applied strict WHO guidelines to identify cases of early PMF that were spuriously diagnosed as ET. Results- Revision of the BM biopsies according to the WHO morphological criteria confirmed ET in 891 patients (81%). Diagnosis was revised to early, prefibrotic PMF in 180 patients (16%). The remaining 33 (3%) BM specimens were qualitatively inadequate for accurate classification or represented unclassified cases. i) At presentation, early PMF, as opposed to true ET, was characterized by higher leukocyte (p<0.0001) and platelet (p=0.002) counts, lower hemoglobin (p=0.01) and hematocrit (p=0.001) levels, higher serum lactate dehydrogenase level (p<0.0001), higher circulating CD34+ cell count (p=0.03) and higher rate of palpable splenomegaly. JAK2V617F mutational frequency was 60% in each of the two groups. ii) Median follow-up was 6.2 years for ET and 7.0 years for early PMF. During this period, the rates of arterial (1.2-1.4% patients/year) and venous (0.6 patients/year) thrombotic complications were similar in the two groups. However, patients with early PMF, as compared to those with ET, were more likely to develop overt myelofibrosis (1% vs. 0.5% patients/year; RR=2.0, p=0.04) or acute leukemia (0.6% vs. 0.1% patients/year; RR=5.2, p=0.001). Cumulative leukemic transformation rate at 10 and 15 years was 0.7% and 2.1% in true ET versus 5.8% and 11.7% in PMF Similarly, survival was significantly worse in patients with early PMF (mortality rate: 2.7% vs. 1.3% patients/year; RR=2.1, p=0.002).The 10 and 15-years overall survival rates were: 89% and 80% in true ET versus 76% and 59% in PMF. On multivariable analysis, other risk factors for poor survival were age > 60 years (HR=6.3, p<0.0001), a leukocyte count of > 11×109/L (HR=2.13, p<0.0001) and history of thrombosis (HR=3.0, p<0.0001). Conclusions- The current study validates the clinical relevance of strict adherence to WHO criteria in the diagnosis of ET and provides seminal information on the survival and risk of leukemic transformation in strictly WHO-defined ET, which appears to be substantially better than previously assumed. Disclosures: No relevant conflicts of interest to declare.

Abstract Diagnosis of essential thrombocythemia (ET) has been updated in the last World Health Organization (WHO) classification. We developed a prognostic model to predict survival at diagnosis, named IPSET (International Prognostic Score for ET), studying patients with WHO-defined ET. Age 60 years or older, leukocyte count ≥ 11 × 109/L, and prior thrombosis significantly affected survival, by multivariable Cox regression. On the basis of the hazard ratio, we assigned 2 points to age and 1 each to leukocyte count and thrombosis. So, the IPSET model allocated 867 patients into 3 risk categories with significantly different survival: low (sum of points = 0; median survival not reached), intermediate (sum = 1-2; median survival 24.5 years), and high (sum = 3-4, median survival 13.8 years). The IPSET model was further validated in 2 independent cohorts including 132 WHO-defined ET and 234 Polycythemia Vera Study Group–defined ET patients. The IPSET model was able to predict the occurrence of thrombosis, and not to predict post-ET myelofibrosis. In conclusion, IPSET, based on age ≥ 60 years, leukocyte count ≥ 11 × 109/L, and history of thrombosis allows prognostic assessment of WHO-defined ET and the validation process makes IPSET applicable in all patients phenotypically appearing as ET.

Purpose The WHO diagnostic criteria underscore the role of bone marrow (BM) morphology in distinguishing essential thrombocythemia (ET) from early/prefibrotic primary myelofibrosis (PMF). This study examined the clinical relevance of such a distinction. Methods Representatives from seven international centers of excellence for myeloproliferative neoplasms convened to create a clinicopathologic database of patients previously diagnosed as having ET (N = 1,104). Study eligibility criteria included availability of treatment-naive BM specimens obtained within 1 year of diagnosis. All bone marrows subsequently underwent a central re-review. Results Diagnosis was confirmed as ET in 891 patients (81%) and was revised to early/prefibrotic PMF in 180 (16%); 33 patients were not evaluable. In early/prefibrotic PMF compared with ET, the 10-year survival rates (76% and 89%, respectively) and 15-year survival rates (59% and 80%, respectively), leukemic transformation rates at 10 years (5.8% and 0.7%, respectively) and 15 years (11.7% and 2.1%, respectively), and rates of progression to overt myelofibrosis at 10 years (12.3% and 0.8%, respectively) and 15 years (16.9% and 9.3%) were significantly worse. The respective death, leukemia, and overt myelofibrosis incidence rates per 100 patient-years for early/prefibrotic PMF compared with ET were 2.7% and 1.3% (relative risk [RR], 2.1; P < .001), 0.6% and 0.1% (RR, 5.2; P = .001), and 1% and 0.5% (RR, 2.0; P = .04). Multivariable analysis confirmed these findings and also identified age older than 60 years (hazard ratio [HR], 6.7), leukocyte count greater than 11 × 10 9 /L (HR, 2.01), anemia (HR, 2.95), and thrombosis history (HR, 2.81) as additional risk factors for survival. Thrombosis and JAK2V617F incidence rates were similar between the two groups. Survival in ET was similar to the sex- and age-standardized European population. Conclusion This study validates the clinical relevance of strict adherence to WHO criteria in the diagnosis of ET and provides important information on survival, disease complication rates, and prognostic factors in strictly WHO-defined ET and early/prefibrotic PMF.

Abstract In an international collaborative study, a central histologic review identified 891 patients with essential thrombocythemia, strictly defined by World Health Organization criteria. After a median follow-up of 6.2 years, 109 (12%) patients experienced arterial (n = 79) or venous (n = 37) thrombosis. In multivariable analysis, predictors of arterial thrombosis included age more than 60 years (P = .03; hazard ratio [HR] = 1.7), thrombosis history (P = .003; HR = 2.1), cardiovascular risk factors including tobacco use, hypertension, or diabetes mellitus (P = .007; HR = 1.9), leukocytosis (> 11 × 109/L; P = .04; HR = 1.7), and presence of JAK2V617F (P = .009; HR = 2.6). In contrast, only male gender predicted venous thrombosis. Platelet count more than 1000 × 109/L was associated with a lower risk of arterial thrombosis (P = .007; HR = 0.4). These associations, except the one with leukocytosis, remained significant (or near significant) when analysis was restricted to JAK2V617F-positive cases. The current study clarifies the contribution of specific disease and host characteristics to the risk of arterial versus venous thrombosis in essential thrombocythemia.