Seth, S D

Introduction: Measurable residual disease (MRD) is a well-validated prognostic marker and interim outcomes measure in patients with multiple myeloma (MM). Despite its broad acceptance as a robust prognostic marker, the MRD status is only available down the treatment line, and there is limited information on the markers at diagnosis that can predict achievement of MRD negativity post-transplant. This study explored the relationship between baseline risk factors and post-autologous stem cell transplantation (post-ASCT) MRD status, as well as the combined impact of these baseline factors and post-ASCT MRD status on progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS). Patients and Methods: We conducted a retrospective, single-center study of patients achieving at least VGPR after ASCT between 01/01/2016 and 12/30/2023, majority (n=814, 98%) received ASCT in the frontline setting. MRD testing was performed between days 60-100 post-transplant using next-generation flow cytometry with a sensitivity of at least 1x10^5 nucleated cells (minimum 2x10^6 cells assessed). Treatment response and disease progression were determined by IMWG criteria. High-risk disease (HRD) was defined as presence of International Staging System ISS stage 3, high lactate dehydrogenase, 1q gain, 17p deletion, or t(4;14) chromosomal abnormalities. We calculated PFS/OS from transplant day 0 to first documented event (progression or death). Categorical variables were compared using chi-square and Fisher's exact tests. Non-parametric tests compared continuous variables, and logistic regression analyses tested associations between clinical/lab variables and MRD status post-ASCT. Time-to-event analyses were performed using Kaplan-Meier and compared using log-rank test. Multivariable analyses were conducted using the Cox regression model. Result: The study cohort included 831 newly diagnosed MM patients. The median follow-up for the cohort was 50 months (95% CI: 48-51). 48% (n=402) achieved MRD negativity (MRD-neg) post-ASCT. Univariate analysis demonstrated that R2-ISS stage, depth of response pre-ASCT, and presence of t(11;14) to be associated with worse MRD-negativity rates. Multivariate analysis revealed that t(11;14) significantly decreased the odds of MRD-negativity (p<0.0001, OR=0.4, 95% CI: 0.3-0.6) and a deeper pre-ASCT response was associated with increase odd of MRD-negativity OR-4.7 (95%CI 3.2-7.4) p<0.0001. Patients with MRD-positive disease post-transplant had an inferior estimated median PFS of 57.6 months (95% CI: 49-69) with a 5-year PFS of 49% (95% CI: 43-56), compared to an estimated median PFS of 83.3 months (95% CI: NA) and a 5-year PFS of 66% in MRD-negative patients (p<0.0001, HR=1.9, 95% CI: 1.5-2.5). Similarly, MRD positivity was associated with an inferior OS [estimated median of 92.6 months (95% CI NA) ,5-year OS 76% (95%CI 72-82) for MRD-pos vs. Median OS NR, 5-year OS 85%(95%CI NA) in MRD-neg; p=0.003, HR=1.69, 95% CI: 1.2-2.38)]. In MRD-neg patients, a baseline bone marrow plasma cells BMPC% >60% was significantly associated with worse PFS (HR=1.9, 95% CI: 1.26-2.99; p<0.01). High-risk disease was not associated with an inferior PFS or OS in patients with MRD-negativity. For MRD-neg patients, estimated median PFS was not reached for those without HRD, 5-year PFS was 66% (95%CI 51-85), compared to 83 months(95%CI 65-NA) for those with HRD, 5-year PFS was 65%(95%CI57-74), p=0.6441. The median OS was not reached in either group (p=0.07). Five-year OS was 94% (95%CI 86-100) in MRD-neg without HRD vs. 81%(95%CI 75-87) with HRD (p=0.07). In MRD-pos patients, median PFS was 81 months (95%CI 58-NA) for those without HRD, 5-year PFS of 59% (95%CI 46-77), compared to PFS of 41 months(95%CI 36-52) for those with HRD ,5-year PFS of 39% (95%CI 31.3-47) , p=0.003. Median OS was not reached in MRD-pos patients without HRD, but it was 59.8 months ( for those with HRD (p=0.0012). Five-year OS was 94% (95%CI 89-99) in MRD-pos without HRD vs. 67%(95%CI 60-74) with HRD (p<0.0001). For every 1 log increase in the residual cell % on MRD testing in MRD-pos patients, the hazard ratio for PFS increased by 42% (p=0.0002, HR=1.42, 95% CI: 1.2-1.7). Conclusion: Patients with t(11;14) have a reduced likelihood of achieving MRD negativity post-ASCT, whereas high-risk cytogenetics did not impact MRD-negativity rates. Achievement of MRD negativity post-ASCT mitigates the impact of high-risk characteristics.

7558 Background: Survival in patients with multiple myeloma (MM) continues to improve with the newer therapies, but there is no clear evidence of a cure and patients continue to relapse. However, most patients have the most extended period without progression with their first-line therapy, and subsequent therapies often provide a shorter duration of response due to the use of drugs with overlapping mechanisms of action and, more importantly, a shorter first remission, pointing toward more aggressive disease biology. With newer immunotherapies being used at 1st relapse, this may change. We designed this study to explore the natural history of MM after the 1st relapse and define the predictors of outcome after the initial relapse. Methods: We identified all patients in the Mayo Clinic database diagnosed between Jan 2004-June 2019 who had had initial disease progression. The study cohort included 2005 patients. We explored the overall survival (OS) from the time of documented disease progression or the start of second-line treatment in patients who had not met IMWG criteria before second-line therapy. Front-line therapy was grouped into those with either an IMiD or PI, both IMiD and PI, daratumumab with IMiD and PI, and none of these agents. The IMiD and PI were always used with dexamethasone with or without an alkylator. Results: The median age was 63 (range 24-95) years and 60% were male. The median estimated follow-up from diagnosis for all patients was 86 mos. (95% CI; 82, 88) and the median time to progression from the start of therapy was 25 mos. (95% CI; 24, 26). The median OS from the first progression was 45 mos. (95% CI; 42, 50), 36 mos. for those diagnosed before 2009, and 52-53 mos. for those diagnosed later. On univariate analysis, age <70 at 1st relapse, RISS I, novel agents in initial therapy, CR in the first line, diagnosis after 2009, initial remission >18 mos, and initiation of therapy before IMWG progression were all associated with improved OS after 1st relapse (Table). On multivariate analysis, age <70, RISS I, initial remission >18 mos, and initiation of therapy before IMWG progression were all associated with improved OS after 1st relapse. Conclusions: The study provides an estimate of the outcomes and significant predictors of outcomes after 1st relapse in patients with MM. These factors should be taken into consideration when designing clinical trials in this patient population. In particular, these factors identify a high-risk group of patients not always identified by baseline characteristics and should be the focus of future trials. [Table: see text]