Cisneros, Luis

Abstract Purpose: Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) frequently recurs after neoadjuvant therapy (NT) and curative-intent resection. Although major pathologic response predicts favorable outcomes, most patients achieve only minor response with a heterogeneous recurrence risk. We asked whether the spatial organization of residual PDAC encodes clinically relevant biology beyond residual tumor burden. Experimental Design: In a retrospective cohort of 203 patients with resected PDAC treated with NT and restricted to minor pathologic response, routine hematoxylin and eosin (H&E) whole-slide images were segmented into cancer and stroma using an artificial intelligence–enabled pipeline. Spatial composition (patch density, edge density) and configuration (compactness/complexity, intermixing) were quantified and tested for associations with disease-free survival (DFS) using multivariable models adjusted for standard clinicopathologic factors. Results: Shorter DFS was associated with a fragmented, interface-rich tumor–stroma ecology featuring higher edge density and diversity and reduced homotypic aggregation, independent of clinicopathologic variables. Two spatial risk models were independently prognostic: (i) cancer mean shape index plus stromal shape index variability [adjusted hazard ratio (HR), 1.71; P = 0.003] and (ii) mean stromal patch area plus edge density (adjusted HR, 2.19; P = 0.002). Both models stratified outcomes in which pathologic response grading and residual cancer area did not. High-risk configurations were further associated with reduced intratumoral tumor-infiltrating lymphocyte (TIL) density and infiltration ratio, with relative TIL accumulation at the cancer periphery and within the stroma, consistent with an immune-excluded phenotype. Conclusions: Residual cancer–stroma topology quantified from standard H&E slides yields independent prognostic signals after NT in PDAC, provides a cellular immune correlate for spatial risk, and motivates prospective validation and spatially informed adjuvant strategies.

Abstract Background Studies show that only 20–30% of untreated ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) cases will evolve into invasive breast cancer. Thus, many patients are subject to overtreatment and its associated morbidities. The ecological context of the tumor microenvironment may impact how DCIS evolves. We applied landscape ecology statistics to hematoxylin and eosin (H&E) images from DCIS to test whether they predict recurrence of DCIS or progression to invasive disease. The ability to make such predictions is key for optimizing treatment decisions, reducing associated risks, and improving the efficiency of healthcare resource allocation. Methods We conducted a retrospective cohort study comprising 158 patients with a DCIS diagnosis, which included 57 cases of DCIS recurrence (2–228 months) and 45 cases of progression to invasive disease (12–180 months). Of these, 21 patients received lumpectomy, 92 had lumpectomy followed by radiation therapy, and 45 had total mastectomy. We generated a digital pathology library of whole-slide images (WSIs) from H&E tumor sections and performed machine learning guided nuclear segmentation and classification. A comprehensive set of spatial statistics was calculated for each WSI to characterize the spatial architecture and cellular interactions within the microenvironment. Cross-validation using a linear spline-based hazard regression model (HARE) was applied to a training subset of the data. The resulting survival model was validated on the test subset to predict disease-free survival (DFS) of recurrence and progression. Results We found that the type of DCIS treatment significantly stratified patients based on DFS (log-rank test p<0.0001). Further analysis of patients who received lumpectomy + radiation or mastectomy revealed that decreased mean nearest neighbor distance between tumor cells and lymphocytes, and between fibroblasts and lymphocytes, was significantly associated with improved recurrence-free survival (concordance=0.68). Stratification of samples based on the median risk score derived from our model was discriminatory with a p-value <0.015. Additionally, a decreased nearest neighbor distance between lymphocytes and fibroblasts showed a marginal association with an increased time to invasive disease (p<0.06). Conclusions Integrating spatial ecological statistics derived from digital pathology provides enhanced risk stratification for DCIS, beyond the established effects of initial treatment. Our findings underscore the importance of the tumor microenvironment's ecological dynamics in DCIS recurrence and progression. The predictive risk associated with specific spatial interactions, particularly involving lymphocytes and fibroblasts, suggests that previously unappreciated ecological mechanisms may play a role in the development of early micro-metastases, influencing outcomes even after standard therapies such as mastectomy or lumpectomy with radiation. These insights highlight novel targets for improved prognostic tools and more personalized therapeutic strategies. Citation Format: Luis H. Cisneros. Microenvironmental drivers of DCIS recurrence and progression to breast cancer [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the AACR Special Conference in Cancer Research: Cancer Evolution: The Dynamics of Progression and Persistence; 2025 Dec 4-6; Albuquerque, NM. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2025;85(23_Suppl):Abstract nr A016.

Abstract Background: The spatial organization of the tumor microenvironment (TME) encodes the selective pressures that drive cancer evolution, but many tools focus on local cell contacts or single-modality readouts. We developed Tumor Landscape Analysis (TLA), a modular framework that borrows from landscape ecology and spatial statistics to quantify heterogeneity, fragmentation, and diversity across scales, from single cells to whole-slide ecosystems. Methods: TLA ingests whole-cell or nuclear centroids and region-level segmentations to compute (i) point statistics such as nearest-neighbor distance, Ripley’s H, and Morisita-Horn colocalization; (ii) kernel-smoothed local spatial profiles including Getis-Ord Gi* hot and cold spots; and (iii) fragmentation, shape, and diversity metrics such as patch density, contagion, shape index, and Shannon entropy. We also introduce Local Microenvironments (LMEs), unsupervised ecological niches defined by joint cell-type abundance and spatial mixing. Pilot analyses were performed in ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS; n=353 samples, 175 patients) with cell-level maps of epithelial, lymphocyte, and fibroblast populations, and in pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC; n=203 resected cases after neoadjuvant therapy) using cancer and stroma segmentations. Results: In DCIS, spatial relationships rather than raw abundance associated with recurrence risk. Shorter lymphocyte-to-fibroblast minimum nearest-neighbor distance and lower Ripley’s H, indicating greater intermixing, correlated with earlier recurrence independent of cell counts. This highlights immune–stromal proximity as a candidate eco-evolutionary driver of persistence. In PDAC, tissue-level fragmentation captured prognostic architecture after therapy. Two shape-based signatures emerged: (1) stromal uniformity, where lower standard deviation of stromal patch shape index associated with improved disease-free survival, consistent with a more constrained, less reactive stroma; and (2) tumor geometric complexity, where higher mean cancer patch shape index, reflecting more irregular or dendritic nests, associated with lower recurrence risk, whereas compact nests predicted worse outcomes. Across datasets, LME maps localized niche phenotypes, such as mixed-immune or segmented tumor habitats, that align with hypothesized selection landscapes and provide inputs for fragmentation analysis. Conclusions: TLA operationalizes an eco-evolutionary view of cancer by unifying interpretable, multiscale spatial metrics in a single workflow that works with any rasterized data input. By quantifying how habitats, edges, and mixing patterns are organized, TLA reveals niche structures and architectural motifs linked to clinical outcomes and complements foundation models and modality-specific pipelines with theory-grounded, clinically translatable descriptors. Ongoing work integrates TLA features with molecular data and outcomes to derive robust biomarkers and to inform adaptive, niche-targeted strategies in precision oncology. Citation Format: Ryan M. Carr, Luis Cisneros, Merih Deniz. Toruner, Martin E. Fernandez-Zapico, Carlo Maley. Tumor landscape analysis: An ecologically informed framework to understand tumor microenvironments [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the AACR Special Conference in Cancer Research: Cancer Evolution: The Dynamics of Progression and Persistence; 2025 Dec 4-6; Albuquerque, NM. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2025;85(23_Suppl):Abstract nr A015.

Abstract Introduction Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) remains one of the deadliest cancers. While total neoadjuvant therapy (TNT) has improved outcomes, recurrence rates remain high. Major pathologic response after TNT is prognostic of better survival, but is rarely achieved. Current pathologic systems primarily consider residual tumor percentage, nodal status, and perineural invasion but overlook spatial organization within the tumor microenvironment (TME). We aimed to evaluate spatial features of the TME to identify biologically and clinically relevant patterns of TME conformation and configuration after TNT and surgical resection of PDAC. Methods We retrospectively analyzed patients with PDAC treated with TNT followed by surgery at Mayo Clinic (2010-2022) with partial or no response per College of American Pathologists (CAP) criteria. Hematoxylin and eosin-stained whole slide images (WSIs) were processed using PathExplore™ PDAC (v1.0) to quantify spatial TME features. These were correlated with disease-free survival (DFS). Results A total of 203 patients were included: 47.3% female, median age 66.5 years. All received TNT; 73.4% had neoadjuvant chemotherapy followed by chemoradiation. Surgical procedures included pancreaticoduodenectomy (62.1%), distal pancreatectomy (22.2%), and total pancreatectomy (15.8%). CAP-defined response was partial in 82.1% and absent in 17.9%. As expected, pathologic T stage (p=0.001), N stage (p=0.002), lymphovascular invasion (p=0.048), and R2 resection (p=0.007) were significantly associated with DFS. However, CAP response category (p=0.053), residual cancer area (p=0.47), and cancer-to-stroma ratio (p=0.25) were not. We analyzed 297 WSIs from 203 patients. Of 31 spatial features evaluated, 5 were associated with DFS (p<0.20). Recursive partitioning using ln(mean cancer shape index [CSI]) <1.775 and ln(SD of stroma shape index [SSI]) >0.651 identified a high-risk group (n=63) with median DFS of 7.23 months (95% CI: 5.19–9.63), compared to 11.57 months in the low-risk group (95% CI: 9.24–17.92) (HR=1.82; 95% CI: 1.31–2.52; p=0.0003). This remained significant after adjusting for T and N stage (HR=1.75; 95% CI: 1.17–2.63; p=0.007). An alternate prognostic index derived via backwards elimination, calculated using 0.2701(mean stromal area) + 0.3905(edge density), also stratified patients. High-risk patients (n=51) had a significantly shorter (p<0.001) DFS (6.2 months) than those in the low-risk category (20.0 months). This significant difference holds in a multivariable analysis controlling for pathologic stage, N stage, and resection margins (HR=1.94, 95% CI: 1.21-3.10, p=0.006). Discussion Current assessment of residual PDAC after TNT is limited by subjective grading and lack of spatial context. Using Tumor Landscape Analysis, we identified high-risk spatial features of the TME that independently predict recurrence. These findings support a novel spatially-informed framework for risk stratification in resected PDAC with residual disease. Citation Format: Miranda Lin, Luis Cisneros, Merih D. Toruner, Andrea Maraone, Paul Dizona, Qian Shi, Martin E. Fernandez-Zapico, Ryan M. Carr. Spatial features of the tumor microenvironment predict recurrence risk in resected pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma after total neoadjuvant therapy [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the AACR Special Conference in Cancer Research: Advances in Pancreatic Cancer Research—Emerging Science Driving Transformative Solutions; Boston, MA; 2025 Sep 28-Oct 1; Boston, MA. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2025;85(18_Suppl_3):Abstract nr A051.

e14626 Background: Despite advancements in neoadjuvant therapy and surgical techniques, patients with pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) often experience high recurrence rates after total neoadjuvant therapy (TNT) and resection. Existing tumor response scoring systems, such as the College of American Pathologists (CAP) guidelines, fail to stratify recurrence risk effectively, emphasizing the need for novel, objective approaches. Methods: This study evaluated spatial characteristics of residual cancer and stroma in a multi-site cohort of 203 patients with resected PDAC following TNT, not having achieved a major pathologic response (CAP 2 or 3). Whole slide images (WSI) of hematoxylin and eosin-stained sections were digitized and analyzed using artificial intelligence to perform tissue segmentation. Metrics quantifying spatial morphology and configuration, inspired by principles of landscape ecology, were computed to explore spatial features of the tumor microenvironment (TME). Statistical models (recursive partitioning and regression tree [RPRT] model and Cox model with backwards eliminations) incorporating these features were developed to stratify recurrence risk. Results: Five metrics were used for risk classification model build. Three models successfully classified patients into high- and low-risk groups based on spatial metrics. Models demonstrated moderate discriminatory power (C-statistics: 0.560–0.566) and showed that increased tumor fragmentation, like stromal patch density and cancer patch shape index, were strongly associated with improved outcomes. Conclusions: Integrating spatial metrics of cancer-stroma configuration enhances risk stratification beyond conventional scoring systems. Given increased tumor fragmentation is associated with improved outcomes, these data indirectly suggest ecological mechanisms of treatment resistance. This approach offers a pathway toward personalized post-operative management strategies to improve outcomes in PDAC. Risk classification models. Model Description Event/n Median DFS (95% CI) HR(95% CI) p-value C-statistics 1(RPRT) High risk: log standard deviation of the stroma shape index > 0.651 87 / 101 8.22(5.72 – 10.1) 1.64(1.20 – 2.25) 0.002 0.562 Low risk: log standard deviation of the stroma shape index ≤ 0.651 71 / 102 11.90(9.24 – 25.1) Ref 2(RPRT) High risk: log standard deviation of the stroma shape index > 0.651 & mean cancer shape index ≤ 1.775 58 / 63 7.23(5.19 – 9.63) 1.82(1.31 – 2.52) 0.0003 0.560 Low risk: (log standard deviation of the stroma shape index > 0.651 & mean cancer shape index > 1.775) or log standard deviation of the stroma shape index ≤ 0.651 100 / 140 11.57(9.24 – 17.92) Ref 3(Backwards elimination) High risk: PI * > median 86 / 101 8.02(6.08 – 9.86) 1.73(1.26 – 2.37) 0.0007 0.566 Low risk:PI * ≤ median 72 / 102 15.72(9.97 – 25.05) Ref *PI: (0.2701 * log mean stroma area) + (0.3905 * log edge density).

e12568 Background: Modern preventive screening have made it possible to identify ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS). Progression of DCIS to invasive disease is known to be driven by somatic evolution and affected by clinical interventions. Yet studies indicate that only 20–30% of the cases of DCIS will progress further if not treated, implying that a large portion of patients are over treated. Recognizing which pre-cancerous tumors are likely to progress to cancer or recur as DCIS after initial treatment is of great importance to optimize treatment options, lower associated risks and allocate healthcare efforts to patients that most benefit from early treatment. Methods: This study consists of a retrospective cohort of 158 patients, 57 of which had a DCIS recurrence over 2 to 228 months after treatment, and 45 progressed to invasive disease over 12 to 180 months. We generated a digital pathology library consisting of hematoxylin and eosin (H&E) stained whole slide images (WSI), and applied machine learning methods to perform duct and nuclear segmentation followed by cell classification. We then computed a set of spatial statistics from landscape ecology to characterize each sample. We used LASSO on half of the data (the training set) to select a Cox proportional hazards model that predicted recurrence of DCIS or cancer and used the other half of the data (the test set) to validate the predictors in the Cox model. Results: When considering the time to recurrence as disease-free survival (DFS), the type of DCIS treatment stratifies patients between Lumpectomy Only and More than Lumpectomy groups (log-rank test p-value < 0.0001), recapitulating previous results. When the subset of patients that had more than a lumpectomy was analyzed using spatial landscape ecology metrics, a decrease in the interaction between tumor cells and fibroblasts and between tumor cells and lymphocytes, measured by the mean nearest neighbor distance, were associated with improved DFS (concordance = 0.717) in the model validation set. Stratification of samples by the median risk is discriminatory with a p-value < 0.001. Alternatively, decreased nearest neighbor distance between lymphocytes and fibroblasts was associated with the time to invasive disease (p-value < 0.05). Conclusions: Integrating spatial ecological statistics of cell distributions enhances risk stratification of DCIS samples beyond the known effects of early treatment. Our results highlight the importance of ecological mechanisms in recurrence, progression and treatment resistance. The risk associated with spatial interactions of lymphocytes and fibroblasts suggests previously unknown ecological interactions may be associated with early micro-metastases that result in breast cancer even after mastectomy or lumpectomy with radiation in patients with DCIS.

Abstract Tumor microenvironments (TMEs) are spatially complex and dynamic systems shaped by evolutionary pressures, tissue architecture, and cellular interactions. To capture this complexity, we developed the Tumor Landscape Analysis (TLA) pipeline, a computational framework applying principles from landscape ecology and spatial statistics to quantitatively characterize tumor spatial heterogeneity. TLA integrates spatially resolved pathology data, including whole-cell, point-based, and region-level formats, and computes multiscale metrics to assess cell distributions, neighborhood relationships, and tissue-level organization. The framework leverages ecological indices such as the Morisita-Horn index, Ripley’s H function, and Shannon diversity to quantify intercellular proximity, spatial clustering, and cellular diversity. It also uses the concept of local microenvironments (LMEs), data-driven ecological niches defined by local cell-type abundance and spatial uniformity, enabling unsupervised and reproducible classification of tumor regions. The use of fragmentation metrics, including patch density, shape complexity, and interspersion, provide further insight into spatial disorganization and emergent tissue architecture. TLA is agnostic to imaging modality and biological context, supporting broad applicability across tumor types and sample formats. By translating complex tissue architectures into interpretable spatial metrics, the pipeline enables integrative analyses that link spatial ecology to clinical and molecular phenotypes. This approach facilitates a deeper understanding of how spatial features contribute to tumor progression, therapeutic resistance, and clinical outcomes, offering new opportunities for precision oncology rooted in spatial systems biology.

Abstract Despite advances in surgery and chemotherapy, patients with resectable pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) face high recurrence rates (40-60%). Total neoadjuvant therapy (TNT) seeks to enhance margin-negative resections (R0) and address micrometastatic disease, with potential survival benefits. Yet, TNT still results in high recurrence rates, with 1-, 2-, and 3-year disease-free survival (DFS) at 65%, 48%, and 32%, respectively. Residual cancer extent is a key prognostic factor in PDAC after TNT. Tumor response scores show favorable outcomes only for patients achieving near-complete or complete pathologic response. In a cohort of 511 PDAC patients treated with TNT and surgery (2015-2022), improved DFS was only found in those with a complete pathologic response (pCR, 7.8%). This highlights the limited use of current response scoring in stratifying post-TNT patient risk, underscoring the need to better understand disease persistence and relapse. Here we developed a quantitative method to assess residual cancer. Using a digital pathology H&E library from 2180 PDAC cases (2000-2022), an AI platform segmented tissue into cancer epithelium, stroma, and normal regions. For 202 TNT-treated cases without pCR, we calculated a ratio of cancer area to stromal area from representative slides. Modeled after the histologic tumor regression grade (HTRG) system, cases were classified into &lt;5%, 5-50%, or &gt;50% cancer-to-stroma ratios. However, this measure alone showed no difference in DFS, suggesting tumor burden cannot fully explain differences in clinical outcomes. We hypothesized that the spatial organization of the tumor microenvironment (TME) is a determinant of patient outcomes. Drawing from landscape ecology, which studies spatial properties of ecosystems, we applied similar principles to analyze tissue architecture. Using an AI-based two-class segmentation of whole-slide images, we assessed spatial features like patch area, perimeter, density, and Shannon diversity. Python’s ‘pylandstats’ package calculated 21 spatial metrics, reduced via stepwise Cox regression using the Akaike information criterion (AIC). The final model included mean Shannon diversity, mean and standard deviation of stromal patch areas, and stromal patch density. Kaplan-Meier analysis of 202 samples stratified model predictions into quartiles, correlating with high (mean DFS 10.85 months), medium (19.32 months), and low risk (25.92 months) groups. These findings aligned with model expectations, underscoring the potential of spatial TME analysis to predict outcomes. Citation Format: Andrea V. Maraone, Zafar Siddiqui, Luis H. Cisneros, Merih D. Toruner, Mark Truty, Cornelius Thiels, Robert R. McWilliams, Steven R. Alberts, Rondell P. Graham, Carlo Maley, Qian Shi, Martin E. Fernandez-Zapico, Ryan M. Carr. Tumor spatial configuration predicts pancreatic cancer recurrence risk after total neoadjuvant therapy [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the American Association for Cancer Research Annual Meeting 2025; Part 1 (Regular Abstracts); 2025 Apr 25-30; Chicago, IL. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2025;85(8_Suppl_1):Abstract nr 5070.

Abstract One of the main reasons we have not been able to cure cancers is that treatments select for drug-resistant cells. Pest managers face similar challenges with pesticides selecting for pesticide-resistant insects, resulting in similar mechanisms of resistance. Pest managers have developed 10 principles that could be translated to controlling cancers: (i) prevent onset, (ii) monitor continuously, (iii) identify thresholds below which there will be no intervention, (iv) change interventions in response to burden, (v) preferentially select nonchemical control methods, (vi) use target-specific drugs, (vii) use the lowest effective dose, (viii) reduce cross-resistance, (ix) evaluate success based on long-term management, and (x) forecast growth and response. These principles are general to all cancers and cancer drugs and so could be employed broadly to improve oncology. Here, we review the parallel difficulties in controlling drug resistance in pests and cancer cells. We show how the principles of resistance management in pests might be applied to cancer. Integrated pest management inspired the development of adaptive therapy in oncology to increase progression-free survival and quality of life in patients with cancers where cures are unlikely. These pest management principles have the potential to inform clinical trial design.

Abstract Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) is predicted to be the second cause of cancer death in the US by 2040. Five-year overall survival is only ~12% despite decades of research. The mainstay of treatment remains chemotherapy in the absence of highly recurrent, therapeutically actionable, genetic targets. For the minority of patients (~15-20%) who are candidates for curative-intent surgical resection, six months of intensive neoadjuvant chemotherapy with/without chemoradiation has become standard-of-care. However, despite evidence of radiographic, metabolic, and biochemical responses, significant viable residual disease on pathologic analysis is almost universally observed with approximately 40-60% risk of disease recurrence. Thus, there is a critical need to better understand why PDAC remains recalcitrant to current therapeutic modalities. Pathologic evaluation of PDAC reveals a complex microenvironment consisting of neoplastic cells dynamically interacting with both “normal” cellular (e.g. mesenchymal, immune) and non-cellular (e.g. collagen) stromal elements. While biologically important, experimental models and small-scale efforts to dissect the PDAC ecosystem are limited by focus on individual tumor compartments and generation of conflicting results. Consequently, there is a need for a more comprehensive understanding of the structure and dynamics of the PDAC TME through the theoretical lens of evolutionary ecology. Current therapies are not focused on the PDAC ecosystem. We hypothesize that cell-cell interactions of PDAC cells with its local niche are important for conferring treatment resistance. Thus, better understanding of said interactions could yield novel ecologically-informed therapies. Consequently, we developed a digital pathology library of approximately 1000 PDAC resection cases (whole-slide H&E images) performed at Mayo Clinic between 2013-2021. Approximately 400 cases are treatment naive while about 600 were treated with neoadjuvant therapy. While some qualitative features of pathologic analysis have prognostic value (e.g., pathologic treatment response, presence of perineural or lymphovascular invasion, extent of desmoplasia), we aim to identify prognostic spatial relationships using tools from landscape ecology. We utilized the HoVer-Net model for nuclei segmentation and classification and spatial statistics methods and landscape fragmentation analysis to understand the spatial organization within the PDAC tumor ecology. With these methodologies, we can assess the spatial context of cell interactions, habitat/niche/microenvironment formation, ecological relationships between cell populations, and the different tissue components. The different spatial statistics/metrics are used to quantify levels of immune cell infiltration, mixing, as well as the complexity and diversity of microenvironment phenotypes leading to high levels of tumor heterogeneity. Such measurements can help predict the likelihood of a PDAC tumor adaptive potential that could lead to fast evolutionary responses to therapy, progression, and poor prognosis. Citation Format: Merih D. Toruner, Luis Cisneros, Zafar Siddiqui, Chady Meroueh, Ritambhara Singh, Carlo Maley, Martin E. Fernandez-Zapico, Ryan M. Carr. Dissecting the pancreatic cancer microenvironment using landscape ecology [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the AACR Special Conference in Cancer Research: Translating Cancer Evolution and Data Science: The Next Frontier; 2023 Dec 3-6; Boston, Massachusetts. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2024;84(3 Suppl_2):Abstract nr B026.