Roger, Véronique L.

Heart failure has been singled out as an emerging epidemic, which could be the result of increased incidence and/or increased survival leading to increased prevalence. Knowledge of the responsibility of each factor in the genesis of the epidemic is crucial for prevention. Population-based studies have shown that, over time, the incidence of heart failure remained overall stable, while survival improved. Therefore, the heart failure epidemic is chiefly one of hospitalizations. Data on temporal trends in the incidence and prevalence of heart failure according to ejection fraction and how it may have changed over time are needed while interventions should focus on reducing the burden of hospitalizations in hear failure.

Background— In 2000, the definition of myocardial infarction (MI) changed to rely on troponin rather than creatine kinase (CK) and its MB fraction (CK-MB). The implications of this change on trends in MI incidence and outcome are not defined. Methods and Results— This was a community study of 2816 patients hospitalized with incident MI from 1987 to 2006 in Olmsted County, Minnesota, with prospective measurements of troponin and CK-MB from August 2000 forward. Outcomes were MI incidence, severity, and survival. After troponin was introduced, 278 (25%) of 1127 incident MIs met only troponin-based criteria. When cases meeting only troponin criteria were included, incidence did not change between 1987 and 2006. When restricted to cases defined by CK/CK-MB, the incidence of MI declined by 20%. The incidence of non–ST-segment elevation MI increased markedly by relying on troponin, whereas that of ST-segment elevation MI declined regardless of troponin. The age- and sex-adjusted hazard ratio of death within 30 days for an infarction occurring in 2006 (compared with 1987) was 0.44 (95% confidence interval, 0.30 to 0.64). Among 30-day survivors, survival did not improve, but causes of death shifted from cardiovascular to noncardiovascular ( P =0.001). Trends in long-term survival among 30-day survivors were similar regardless of troponin. Conclusions— Over the last 2 decades, a substantial change in the epidemiology of MI occurred that was only partially mediated by the introduction of troponin. Non–ST-segment elevation MIs now constitute the majority of MIs. Although the 30-day case fatality improved markedly, long-term survival did not change, and the cause of death shifted from cardiovascular to noncardiovascular.

Background— The relationship between neutrophils and outcomes post–myocardial infarction (MI) is not completely characterized. We examined the associations of neutrophil count with mortality and post-MI heart failure (HF) and their incremental value for risk discrimination in the community. Methods and Results— MI was diagnosed with cardiac pain, biomarkers, and Minnesota coding of the ECG. Neutrophil count at presentation, reported as counts ×10 9 /L, was categorized by tertiles (lower tertile, <5.7; middle tertile, 5.7 to 8.5; upper tertile, >8.5). From 1979 to 2002, 2047 incident MIs occurred in Olmsted County, Minn (mean age, 68±14 years; 44% women). Median (25th to 75th percentile) neutrophil count was 7.0 (5.1 to 9.5). Within 3 years post-MI, 577 patients died, and 770 developed HF. Overall survival and survival free of HF decreased with increased neutrophil tertile ( P <0.001). Compared with the lower tertile, the age and sex adjusted hazard ratio for death was 1.44 (95% CI, 1.14 to 1.81) for the middle tertile and 2.60 (95% CI, 2.10 to 3.22) for the upper tertile ( P <0.001). Similarly, for HF, the hazard ratio was 1.32 (95% CI, 1.09 to 1.59) for the middle and 2.12 (95% CI, 1.77 to 2.53) for the upper tertile ( P <0.001). These associations persisted after adjustment for risk factors, comorbidities, Killip class, revascularization, and ejection fraction. Neutrophil count improved risk discrimination as indicated by increases in the area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (all P <0.05) and by the integrated discrimination improvement analysis (all P <0.001). Conclusions— In the community, the neutrophil count was strongly and independently associated with death and HF post-MI and improved risk discrimination over traditional predictors.

Background— There have been significant bidirectional changes in the prevalence of cardiovascular (CV) risk factors over time in the United States, making the net trend in risk for incident CV disease unknown. We assessed these trends by applying the Framingham Heart Study prediction model to national data. Methods and Results— The National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) II (1976–1980), NHANES III (1988–1994), and NHANES 1999–2004 are cross-sectional representative samples of the noninstitutionalized population of the United States. We excluded people with a history of CV disease, pregnant women, participants with missing CV risk factors data, and individuals outside the Framingham age range of 30 to 74 years. The Framingham risk function was used to estimate the 10-year risk for incident symptomatic CV disease. We calculated the slope of change or rate of change per year between NHANES II and III, and between NHANES III and 1999–2004. The difference between slopes was calculated and compared to zero. The average age-adjusted 10-year CV risk between NHANES II and III decreased from 10.0% to 7.9% between NHANES II and III, with a statistically significant slope ( P <0.001). However, the average age-adjusted CV risk decreased at a lesser magnitude between NHANES III and NHANES 1999–2004 from 7.9% to 7.4% ( P <0.001). These slopes were significantly different ( P <0.0001). In women and middle-aged participants, CV risk did not change between NHANES III and NHANES 1999–2004 ( P =0.40). Conclusions— The estimated net risk for CV disease in the US population decreased from 1976–1980 to 1988–1994 but has changed minimally from 1988–1994 to 1999–2004, particularly in women and middle-aged people.

Background— Mortality among patients with heart failure is high. Though individual biomarkers have been investigated to determine their value in mortality risk prediction, the role of a multimarker strategy requires further evaluation. Methods and Results— Olmsted County residents presenting with heart failure from July 2004 to September 2007 were recruited to undergo biomarker measurement. We investigated whether addition of C-reactive protein, B-type natriuretic peptide, and troponin T to a model including established risk indicators improved 1-year mortality risk prediction using the c statistic, integrated discrimination improvement, and net reclassification improvement. Among 593 participants, the mean age was 76.4 years, and 48% were men. After 1 year of follow-up, 122 (20.6%) participants had died. Patients with C-reactive protein (<11.8 mg/L), B-type natriuretic peptide (<350 pg/mL), and troponin T (≤0.01 ng/mL) less than the median had low 1-year mortality (3.3%), whereas those with 2 or 3 biomarkers greater than the median had markedly increased mortality (30.8% and 35.5%, respectively). The addition of 2 or more biomarkers to the model offered greater improvement in 1-year mortality risk prediction than use of a single biomarker. The combination of C-reactive protein and B-type natriuretic peptide resulted in an increase in the c statistic from 0.757 to 0.810 ( P <0.001), an integrated discrimination improvement gain of 7.1% ( P <0.001), and a net reclassification improvement of 22.1% ( P <0.001). Use of all 3 biomarkers offered no incremental gain (integrated discrimination improvement gain 0.7% versus C-reactive protein+B-type natriuretic peptide, P =0.065). Conclusions— Biomarkers improved 1-year mortality risk prediction beyond established indicators. The use of a 2-biomarker combination was superior to a single biomarker in risk prediction, though addition of a third biomarker conferred no added benefit.

Background— Papillary muscle rupture (PMR) is an infrequent but catastrophic complication of acute myocardial infarction (MI). Although always considered, surgical treatment is often denied because of high operative mortality. Moreover, the effects of surgery for PMR on long-term outcome, particularly compared with expected outcome after MI, are undefined. Methods and Results— Fifty-four consecutive patients (age, 70±8 years; 74% male) underwent mitral surgery for post-MI PMR from January 1980 through December 2000. Severe presentation (cardiogenic shock, pulmonary edema, or cardiac arrest) was noted in 91% preoperatively. Performance of coronary artery bypass graft was associated with lower operative mortality (odds ratio, 0.18; 95% CI, 0.04 to 0.83; P =0.011), whereas there was a trend for lower mortality after surgery after 1990 (odds ratio, 0.28; 95% CI, 0.06 to 1.3). Thus, operative mortality (overall, 18.5%) decreased from 67% up to 1990 without coronary artery bypass graft to 8.7% after 1990 with coronary artery bypass graft. Overall 5-year survival was 65±7%, and survival free of congestive heart failure was 52±7%. Five-year survival of 30-day operative survivors was 79±4%, identical ( P =0.24) to that of matched controls with MI (similar age, sex, ejection fraction, MI location, and MI year). Survival free of congestive heart failure was similar in PMR cases and MI controls (10-year survival, 28±8% versus 36±6%; P =0.46). Conclusions— Surgery for post-MI PMR involves a notable operative mortality, but there are recent trends for lower operative risk, particularly with associated coronary artery bypass graft. Long term after surgery, outcome is restored to that of similar MI without PMR. These encouraging observations emphasize the importance of prompt diagnosis and aggressive therapeutic approach for patients incurring PMR after MI.

Background— Tumor necrosis factor-α (TNFα), an inflammatory cytokine, was reported to be elevated in trials of heart failure (HF) with reduced ejection fraction (EF) and associated with mortality. Whether this is true for HF with preserved EF is unknown, and community data are lacking. We evaluated the distribution of TNFα, its association with baseline characteristics and mortality, and its benefit in assessing risk in community HF patients. Methods and Results— Olmsted County residents with active HF from July 2004 to March 2007 (n=486; mean age, 76.7 years; EF ≥50%, 55%) were prospectively recruited. Clinical characteristics and TNFα were measured. Elevated TNFα (more than the assay limit of normal of 2.8 pg/mL) was present in 143 (29%). Higher TNFα was associated with decreased creatinine clearance, nonsmoking status, anemia, and greater comorbidity ( P trend <0.05 for all). Mortality increased with increasing TNFα ( P =0.016), with 1-year mortality estimates of 16%, 18%, 23%, and 32% from the lowest to highest quartile, respectively. After adjustment for age, sex, and EF, the hazard ratios for death were 1.24, 1.37, and 1.90 from the second to the highest TNFα quartile, respectively ( P trend =0.007). TNFα contributed to risk assessment as indicated by increases in the area under the receiver operating characteristic curves in all models examined ( P <0.05 for all). Results did not differ by EF ( P =0.60 interaction term of TNFα and EF). Conclusions— TNFα was elevated in a large portion of community HF patients, was associated with a large decrease in survival, and provided a significant incremental increase in risk assessment above established indicators. TNFα is useful for risk assessment in HF patients with preserved and reduced EF.

Background— Mortality in patients with heart failure (HF) remains high, but causes of death are incompletely defined. As HF is a heterogeneous syndrome categorized according to the ejection fraction (EF), the association between EF and causes of death is important, yet elusive. Methods and Results— Community subjects with HF were classified according to the preserved (≥50%) and the reduced EF (<50%). Deaths were classified as due to coronary heart disease and other cardiovascular and noncardiovascular diseases. Among 1063 persons with HF, 45% had preserved EF with fewer cardiovascular risk factors and less coronary disease than those with reduced EF. At 5 years, survival was 45% (95% CI, 43% to 49%), and 43% of the deaths were noncardiovascular. The leading cause of death in subjects with preserved EF was noncardiovascular disease (49%) versus coronary heart disease (43%) for subjects with reduced EF. The proportion of cardiovascular deaths decreased from 69% in 1979–1984 to 40% in 1997–2002 ( P =0.007) among subjects with preserved EF, which is in contrast to a modest change among those with reduced EF (77% to 64%, P =0.08). Advanced age, male sex, diabetes, smoking, and kidney disease were associated with an increased risk of all-cause and cardiovascular deaths. After adjustment, preserved EF was associated with a lower risk of cardiovascular death but not all-cause death. Conclusions— Community subjects with HF experience a persistently high mortality, and a large proportion of deaths is noncardiovascular. Cardiovascular disease before death is less in subjects with preserved EF, and they are less likely to experience cardiovascular deaths compared with those with reduced EF. In those with preserved EF, the proportion of cardiovascular deaths declined over time.