Jacobsen, Steven J.

Background —The prognostic value of treadmill exercise testing (TMET) has been studied in selected populations. The generalizability of these data to different populations and to women is uncertain. Methods and Results —A retrospective, population-based cohort study of all persons (1452 men and 741 women) who underwent TMET in years 1987 to 1989 in Olmsted County, Minnesota, was undertaken. Individuals were followed up for all-cause mortality and cardiac events (cardiac deaths, nonfatal myocardial infarction, or congestive heart failure). Sex-specific analyses were performed to determine whether the predictors of outcome and the magnitude of the associations were similar in both sexes. In men, 77 deaths and 106 cardiac events occurred during 8956 person-years of observation; in women, 46 deaths and 54 cardiac events occurred during 4801 person-years of follow-up. Exercise-induced angina, ECG changes, and workload achieved on the TMET were strongly associated with all-cause mortality and cardiac events in both sexes, and the strength of the association was similar. After adjustment, workload was the only TMET variable associated with outcome. A higher workload was associated with a reduction in the risk of cardiac events and of all-cause mortality; the protective effect of exercise capacity was strong and was similar in both sexes. Conclusions —In this population-based cohort, exercise capacity was the TMET variable that exhibited the strongest association with all-cause mortality and cardiac events. This protective effect of exercise capacity was observed in both sexes.

Background —Data are limited regarding the classification and prognosis of patients with congestive heart failure (CHF) in the community. Methods and Results —Using the resources of the Rochester Epidemiology Project, we evaluated all patients receiving a first diagnosis of CHF in Olmsted County, Minnesota, in 1991 (n=216). Among these patients, 88% were ≥65 years and 49% were ≥80 years of age. The prognosis of patients with a new diagnosis of CHF was poor; survival was 86±2% at 3 months, 76±3% at 1 year, and 35±3% at 5 years. Of the 216 patients, 137 (63%) had an assessment of ejection fraction. In these patients, systolic function was preserved (ejection fraction ≥50%) in 59 (43%) and reduced (ejection fraction <50%) in 78 (57%). Survival adjusted for age, sex, NYHA class, and coronary artery disease was not significantly different between patients with preserved and those with reduced systolic function (relative risk, 0.80; P =0.369). ACE inhibitors were used in only 44% of the total population with CHF. Conclusions —The present study reports the clinical characteristics and natural history of CHF as it presents in the community in the vasodilator era. CHF is a disease of the “very elderly,” frequently occurs in the setting of normal ejection fraction, and has a poor prognosis, regardless of the level of systolic function. Diagnostic and therapeutic methods are underused in the community.

Abstract Objective: To investigate the association of body mass index (BMI) and BMI change with change in prostate-specific antigen (PSA) level and to assess the possible roles of PSA hemodilution and prostate volume in explaining the obesity and PSA association. Methods: In 1990, a randomly selected cohort of Caucasian men, aged 40 to 79 years, from Olmsted County, Minnesota, completed questionnaires ascertaining demographic characteristics, current medical conditions, and medications biennially, with a subset undergoing blood draws and clinical examinations. Linear mixed models were used to predict annual changes and intercepts of individual changes in BMI, PSA, prostate volume, plasma volume, and PSA mass, adjusting for age in 545 men with at least 2 serial PSA, BMI, and prostate volume measurements. Results: Baseline BMI was inversely associated with the annual percent change in PSA, adjusting for age, baseline PSA, and prostate volume and for the rates of change in BMI and prostate volume (β = −0.003, 95% CI: −0.006 to −0.0003). Baseline obesity was positively associated with mean baseline levels and the rate of change in prostate volume (P = 0.002) and plasma volume (both P &lt; 0.001) but was not associated with either the mean baseline values or the rate of change in PSA mass. Conclusions: Baseline obesity was associated with baseline PSA and prostate volume and with the rate of change in PSA over 15 years of follow-up. Impact: The inverse association of obesity with prostate cancer diagnosis may be at least partly due to detection bias, which is due to larger prostate volumes and PSA hemodilution in obese men. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev; 20(3); 501–8. ©2011 AACR.