Elalami, Rim

Abstract Rationale Acute exacerbations (AEs) of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) are associated with significant morbidity and mortality. Whether mucus plugs are associated with prospective exacerbations has not been examined extensively. Objectives To examine associations between mucus plugs on chest computed tomography (CT) and future moderate-to-severe AEs in two independent cohorts with spirometrically-confirmed COPD. Methods Mucus plugs were visually identified on baseline chest computed tomography scans from smokers with Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease grade 2–4 COPD enrolled in two multicenter cohort studies: ECLIPSE (Evaluation of COPD Longitudinally to Identify Predictive Surrogate Endpoints) and COPDGene (Genetic Epidemiology of COPD). Associations between ordinal mucus plug score categories (0, 1–2, and ≥3) and prospectively ascertained AEs, defined as worsening respiratory symptoms requiring systemic steroids and/or antibiotics (moderate to severe) and/or emergency room visit or hospitalization (severe), were assessed using multivariable-adjusted zero-inflated Poisson regression; subjects were exacerbation-free at enrollment. Measurements and Main Results Among 3,250 participants in COPDGene (mean age ± SD, 63.7 ± 8.4 yr; FEV1, 50.6 ± 17.8% predicted; 45.1% female) and 1,716 participants in ECLIPSE (age, 63.3 ± 7.1 yr; FEV1, 48.3 ± 15.8% predicted; 36.2% female), 44.4% and 46.0% had mucus plugs, respectively. The incidence rates of AEs were 61.0 (COPDGene) and 125.7 (ECLIPSE) per 100 person-years. Relative to those without mucus plugs, the presence of 1–2 and ≥3 mucus plugs was associated with increased risk (adjusted rate ratio [aRR], 1.07 [95% CI, 1.05–1.09] and 1.15 [1.1–1.2] in COPDGene; aRR, 1.06 [95% CI, 1.02–1.09] and 1.12 [1.04–1.2] in ECLIPSE, respectively) for prospective moderate to severe AEs. The presence of 1–2 and ≥3 mucus plugs was also associated with increased risk for severe AEs during follow-up (aRR, 1.05 [95% CI, 1.01–1.08] and 1.09 [1.02–1.18] in COPDGene; aRR, 1.17 [95% CI, 1.07–1.27] and 1.37 [1.15–1.62] in ECLIPSE, respectively). Conclusions Computed tomography–detected mucus plugs are associated with an increased risk for future COPD AEs.