Pisansky, Thomas M.

PURPOSE To compare the predictive ability of mapping algorithms derived using cross-sectional and longitudinal data. METHODS This methodological assessment used data from a randomized controlled noninferiority trial of patients with low-risk prostate cancer, conducted by NRG Oncology (ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT00331773 ), which examined the efficacy of conventional schedule versus hypofractionated radiation therapy (three-dimensional conformal external beam radiation therapy/IMRT). Health-related quality-of-life data were collected using the Expanded Prostate Cancer Index Composite (EPIC), and health utilities were obtained using EuroQOL-5D-3L (EQ-5D) at baseline and 6, 12, 24, and 60 months postintervention. Mapping algorithms were estimated using ordinary least squares regression models through five-fold cross-validation in baseline cross-sectional data and combined longitudinal data from all assessment periods; random effects specifications were also estimated in longitudinal data. Predictive performance was compared using root mean square error. Longitudinal predictive ability of models obtained using baseline data was examined using mean absolute differences in the reported and predicted utilities. RESULTS A total of 267 (and 199) patients in the estimation sample had complete EQ-5D and EPIC domain (and subdomain) data at baseline and at all subsequent assessments. Ordinary least squares models using combined data showed better predictive ability (lowest root mean square error) in the validation phase for algorithms with EPIC domain/subdomain data alone, whereas models using baseline data outperformed other specifications in the validation phase when patient covariates were also modeled. The mean absolute differences were lower for models using EPIC subdomain data compared with EPIC domain data and generally decreased as the time of assessment increased. CONCLUSION Overall, mapping algorithms obtained using baseline cross-sectional data showed the best predictive performance. Furthermore, these models demonstrated satisfactory longitudinal predictive ability.

PURPOSE Metastasis-free survival (MFS), but not event-free survival, is a validated surrogate end point for overall survival (OS) in men treated for localized prostate cancer. It remains unknown if this holds true in biochemically recurrent disease after radical prostatectomy. Leveraging NRG/RTOG 9601, we aimed to determine the performance of intermediate clinical end points (ICEs) as surrogate end points for OS in recurrent prostate cancer. MATERIALS AND METHODS NRG/RTOG 9601 randomly assigned 760 men with recurrence after prostatectomy to salvage radiation therapy with 2 years of placebo versus bicalutamide 150 mg daily. ICEs assessed were biochemical failure (BF) per NRG/RTOG 9601 (prostate-specific antigen nadir + 0.3-0.5 ng/mL or initiation of salvage hormone therapy; [BF1]) and NRG/RTOG 0534 (prostate-specific antigen nadir+2 ng/mL; [BF2]), distant metastasis (DM), and MFS (DM or death). Surrogacy was assessed by the Prentice criteria and a two-stage meta-analytic approach (condition one assessed at the patient level with Kendall's τ and condition two assessed by randomly dividing the entire trial cohort into 10 pseudo trial centers and calculating the average R2 between treatment hazard ratios for ICE and OS). RESULTS BF1, BF2, DM, and MFS satisfied the four Prentice criteria. However, with the two-condition meta-analytic approach, there was strong correlation between MFS and OS (τ = 0.86), moderate correlation between DM and OS (τ = 0.66), and weaker correlation between BF1 (τ = 0.25) or BF2 (τ = 0.40) and OS. Similarly, for condition two, the treatment effect of antiandrogen therapy on MFS and OS were correlated ( R2 = 0.67), but this was not true for BF1 ( R2 = 0.09), BF2 ( R2 = 0.12), or DM ( R2 = 0.18) and OS. CONCLUSION MFS is also a strong surrogate for OS in men receiving salvage radiation therapy for recurrence after prostatectomy. Caution should be used when inferring survival benefit from effects on BF in biochemically recurrent prostate cancer. Lack of comorbidity data did not allow us to assess whether BF in men with no/minimal comorbidity could serve as a surrogate for OS.

277 Background: The prognostic importance of local failure (LF) after definitive radiotherapy (RT) in patients with NCCN intermediate- (IRPCa) and high-risk prostate cancer (HRPCa) remains unclear, particularly given the likelihood that occult distant metastases (DMs) at presentation may be the true driver of natural history. Here, we leverage individual patient data (IPD) from 18 randomized control trials (RCTs) to evaluate the prognostic impact of LF and the kinetics of DM after RT. Methods: IPD for 18 RCTs were obtained from the Meta-Analysis of Randomized trials in Cancer of the Prostate (MARCAP) Consortium, comprising a total of 12533 patients (6288 HRPCa & 6245 IRPCa). Multivariable Cox proportional hazards (PH) models were developed to evaluate the relationship between overall survival (OS), PCa-specific survival (PCSS), DM-free survival (DMFS) & LF as a time-dependent covariate, adjusted for clinicodemographic parameters. Markov PH models, defined via transitions between 4 states, were developed to evaluate the aforementioned relationship. Proportional hazards assumption was imposed and examined for both models. Time is from randomization. Results: Median follow-up was 9.1 years. There were 795 (13%) LF & 1288 (21%) DM events for patients with HRPCa; these numbers were 449 (7%) & 451 (7%) for IRPCa. For HRPCa & IRPCa, 81% and 81% of DMs developed from a clinically relapse-free state (cRFS), with a median time of 46 and 60 months, respectively (p < 0.0001). 39% & 13% of DM events occurred within 2 years after RT for HRPCa & IRPCa, respectively. At later time points, DM events were more likely to emerge after an LF event for both HRPCa (9% vs. 34% between 0-2 vs. 8-10 years post-RT, p = 0.001) and IRPCa (10% vs. 34% between 0-2 vs. 8-10 years post-RT, p = 0.008). LF was significantly associated with OS (hazard ratio [HR] 1.17, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.06–1.30), PCSS (HR 2.02, 95% CI 1.75-2.33) & DMFS (HR 1.94, 95% CI 1.75–2.15) (p < 0.01 for all) in patients with HRPCa. LF was also significantly associated with DMFS (HR 1.57, 95% CI 1.36–1.81) but not OS in patients with IRPCa. Patients who had not transitioned to the LF state had a significantly lower HR of transitioning to a PCa-specific death state than those who transitioned to the LF state (HR 0.32, 95% CI 0.21–0.50, p < 0.001). Conclusions: LF is an independent prognosticator of OS, PCSS & DMFS in HRPCa and of DMFS in IRPCa. The predominant mode of DM development is from the cRFS state, underscoring the importance of accurate upfront staging & systemic therapy. However, particularly at late time points, an increasing proportion of DM events originated after diagnosis of a LF, constituting a “second wave” of DM events. This suggests that optimizing local control is also important, though the majority of DM events appear prior to a clinically-detected LF.

265 Background: A recent study ( Fossati et al, 2018) found that higher lymph node count at radical prostatectomy was associated with improved outcomes in patients treated with salvage radiation for elevated prostate-specific antigen (PSA) after surgery. We sought to validate these results in NRG/RTOG 9601, a randomized controlled trial of men with pT2/T3 disease who underwent either radiation (RT) alone or RT+antiandrogen (bicalutamide) therapy for PSA elevation following radical prostatectomy from 1998-2003. Methods: We reviewed available pathology reports for all patients in NRG/RTOG 9601 to determine the nodal count at radical prostatectomy. Clinical data was as of 11/5/2015, same as the primary endpoint for the trial. Cox proportional hazards models were used to assess the effect of number of positive lymph nodes, treatment arm (RT alone or RT+bicalutamide), Gleason score, positive margins, and seminal vesicle invasion on the following endpoints: times to local and distant failure and overall and disease specific survival. Results: Out of the 760 patients originally eligible in the trial, 552 (73%, 276 in each arm) had complete data available. Median node count in the entire cohort was 6 (range 0-33, Q1-Q3 3-9). There were no significant differences between treatment arms in terms of patient demographic or clinical characteristics, including total lymph nodes removed in either arm (RT alone vs RT+bicalutamide median 5 vs 6, p = 0.11). There was no significant association between total lymph nodes and overall survival with both arms combined (HR = 1.00, 95% CI:0.97-1.03, p = 0.87) or in the individual arms alone (RT+Casodex: HR = 1.01, 95% CI:0.97-1.05, p = 0.65; RT+Placebo: HR = 0.98, 95% CI: 0.94-1.03, p = 0.45). There was also no significant association between total lymph nodes and disease-specific survival with both arms combined (HR = 1.00, 95% CI:0.95-1.04, p = 0.84) and in the arms alone (RT+Casodex: HR = 1.00, 95% CI:0.95-1.05, p = 0.92; RT+Placebo: HR = 0.99, 95% CI: 0.92-1.07, p = 0.86). In multivariable analysis performed on the two arms, Gleason score was the only feature associated with worse overall and disease-specific survival, seen only in the RT alone arm. Similar findings were seen when evaluating times to local and distant failure. Conclusions: Lymph node yield in NRG/RTOG 9601 did not show any association with adverse outcomes in the entire cohort, or in either treatment arm alone. The therapeutic benefit of an extensive lymph node dissection in this population remains uncertain. Clinical trial information: NCT00002874.

Abstract Purpose: Outcomes for resistant metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer (CRPC) are poor. Stereotactic ablative radiotherapy (SABR) induces antitumor immunity in clinical and preclinical studies, but immunologic biomarkers are lacking. Patients and Methods: Eighty-nine patients with oligometastatic CRPC were identified by 11C-Choline-PET (Choline-PET) from August 2016 to December 2019 and treated with SABR. Prespecified coprimary endpoints were 2-year overall survival (OS) and PSA progression. Secondary endpoints included 2-year SABR-treated local failure and 6-month adverse events. Correlative studies included peripheral blood T-cell subpopulations before and after SABR. Results: 128 lesions in 89 patients were included in this analysis. Median OS was 29.3 months, and 1- and 2-year OS were 96% and 80%, respectively. PSA PFS was 40% at 1 year and 21% at 2 years. Local PFS was 84.4% and 75.3% at 1 and 2 years, respectively, and no grade ≥3 AEs were observed. Baseline high levels of tumor-reactive T cells (TTR; CD8+CD11ahigh) predicted superior local, PSA, and distant PFS. Baseline high levels of effector memory T cells (TEM; CCR7−CD45RA−) were associated with improved PSA PFS. An increase in TTR at day 14 from baseline was associated with superior OS. Conclusions: This is the first comprehensive effector T-cell immunophenotype analysis in a phase II trial before and after SABR in CRPC. Results are favorable and support the incorporation of immune-based markers in the design of future randomized trials in patients with oligometastatic CRPC treated with SABR.

Abstract Background: Prostate cancer is the most common cancer among men. Monitoring of patient-reported outcomes (PROs) can enhance provider-patient communication, promote better decision-making, and improve survival. Geospatial factors, namely rurality and neighborhood socioeconomic deprivation, could influence the experience across cancer treatment, thus impacting PROs and survival. This study examined associations of rurality, neighborhood socioeconomic deprivation (Area Deprivation Index [ADI]) with cancer treatment-related PROs and survival in men with prostate cancer. Methods: Data from men with prostate cancer in the trial NRG Oncology/RTOG 0415 were analyzed. In this trial, 1092 men were randomized to receive conventional radiotherapy (RT) or hypofractionated RT. Patients had Gleason scores of 2-6 and prostate-specific antigen of &lt;10 ng/mL. Rurality was categorized as urban vs rural using Rural-Urban Continuum Codes via patient zip codes. Neighborhood socioeconomic deprivation was assessed by the ADI calculated via the American Community Survey by patient zip codes. The Expanded Prostate Cancer Index Composite (EPIC) measures cancer-specific quality of life (QOL); Hopkins Symptom Checklist measures anxiety and depression; EuroQoL-5 Dimension (EQ-5D) VAS and Index scores assess general health. All PROs were measured at baseline before and 6, 12, 24 and 60 months after RT. Overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS) were assessed using Cox proportional hazards models. Mixed effects models and generalized estimating equations were used to analyze PROs. Results: We analyzed 751 patients with complete data. Patients from the ADI 25% most deprived neighborhoods (vs. the other 75% of neighborhoods) were more likely to be non-white, unmarried and from rural areas. At baseline, patients from the most deprived areas had worse EPIC bowel score (P=0.011), worse sexual score (P=0.042) and worse hormonal score (P=0.015); patients from the most deprived areas had worse self-care (P=0.04) and more pain (P=0.047). Patients from rural areas had worse EPIC urinary score (P=0.03) and sexual score (P=0.003). Longitudinal analyses showed that ADI 25% most deprived areas (β=4.05, P=0.001) and rural areas (β=-5.70, P=0.003) were associated with worse EQ-5D VAS score. Compared to the 75% less deprived neighborhoods and urban, the ADI 25% most deprived neighborhoods and rural areas respectively had 47% (HR=1.466, P=0.033) and 93% (HR=1.925, P=0.026) relative increase in risk of recurrence or death (DFS). No differences were seen in OS. Conclusions: Patients with prostate cancer from the most deprived neighborhoods and rural areas had low QOL at baseline, poor general health and DFS. Interventions should target populations from socioeconomic deprived neighborhoods and rural areas to improve patient access to supportive care services and DFS. Citation Format: Jinbing Bai, Stephanie L. Pugh, Ronald Eldridge, Katherine Yeager, Qi Zhang, W Robert Lee, Amit B. Shah, Ian S. Dayes, David P. D'Souza, Jeff M. Michalski, Jason A. Efstathiou, John M. Longo, Thomas M. Pisansky, Jordan M. Maier, Sergio L. Faria, Anand B. Desai, Samantha A. Seaward, Howard M. Sandler, Mary E. Cooley, Deborah W. Bruner. Rurality and neighborhood socioeconomic deprivation associated with patient-reported outcomes andsurvivalin men with prostate cancer in NRG RTOG 0415 [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the American Association for Cancer Research Annual Meeting 2021; 2021 Apr 10-15 and May 17-21. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2021;81(13_Suppl):Abstract nr 2528.