Macrae, Finlay

Abstract Background Being able to estimate the risk of metachronous disease in a patient with colorectal cancer (CRC) could enable risk-appropriate surveillance. The aim of this study was to develop a risk-prediction model to estimate individual 10-year risk of metachronous disease following a CRC diagnosis. Methods A population-based cohort of patients with CRC was recruited soon after diagnosis between 1997 and 2012 from the United States, Canada, and Australia. Cox regression with the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator penalization was used to identify factors that predicted the risk of a new primary CRC diagnosed at least 1 year after the initial CRC diagnosis. Potential predictors included demography, anthropometry, lifestyle factors, comorbidities, personal and family cancer history, medication use, age at diagnosis, and pathological features of the first CRC. Internal validation through bootstrapping was used to evaluate the discrimination and calibration. Results We included 6085 CRC cases; 138 (2.3%) of these cases were diagnosed with metachronous disease over a median of 12 years (IQR = 5-17 years). Metachronous CRC risk was predicted by body mass index; smoking status; level of physical activity; family history of cancer and synchronous CRC; stage, grade, histological type, and DNA mismatch repair status; and age at diagnosis of the first CRC. The model was valid with a C statistic of 0.65 (95% CI = 0.63 to 0.68) and a calibration slope of 0.873 (SD = 0.087). Conclusions Metachronous CRC can be predicted with reasonable accuracy using a prediction model that consists of clinical variables collected as part of routine practice.

Abstract Menopausal users of hormone replacement therapy (HRT) are at increased breast cancer risk and decreased colorectal cancer (CRC) risk compared with individuals who have never used HRT, but these opposing associations may differ by familial risk of breast cancer and CRC. We harmonized data from 3 cohorts and generated separate breast cancer and CRC familial risk scores based on cancer family history. We defined moderate or strong family history as a risk score of 0.4 or higher, where 0.4 was equivalent to a 50-year-old woman with 1 parent diagnosed with either breast cancer or CRC at 55 years of age. Of 24 486 women assessed, 1243 and 405 were diagnosed with incident breast cancer and CRC, respectively. For breast cancer, menopausal HRT ever use versus never use hazard ratios were 1.27 (95% CI = 1.11 to 1.45) for a breast cancer familial risk score below 0.4 and 1.01 (95% CI = 0.82 to 1.25) for a breast cancer familial risk score of 0.4 or higher (Pdifference = .08). For CRC, menopausal HRT hazard ratios were 0.63 (95% CI = 0.50 to 0.78) for a CRC familial risk score below 0.4 and 1.21 (95% CI = 0.73 to 2.00) for a CRC familial risk score of 0.4 or higher (Pdifference = .03). Associations with menopausal HRT use that apply to the general population may not hold for women at moderate or strong familial risk of these cancers.

Germline pathogenic variants in the DNA mismatch repair (MMR) genes (Lynch syndrome) predispose to colorectal (CRC) and endometrial (EC) cancer. Lynch syndrome specific tumor features were evaluated for their ability to support the ACMG/InSiGHT framework in classifying variants of uncertain clinical significance (VUS) in the MMR genes. Twenty-eight CRC or EC tumors from 25 VUS carriers (6xMLH1, 9xMSH2, 6xMSH6, 4xPMS2), underwent targeted tumor sequencing for the presence of microsatellite instability/MMR-deficiency (MSI-H/dMMR) status and identification of a somatic MMR mutation (second hit). Immunohistochemical testing for the presence of dMMR crypts/glands in normal tissue was also performed. The ACMG/InSiGHT framework reclassified 7/25 (28%) VUS to likely pathogenic (LP), three (12%) to benign/likely benign, and 15 (60%) VUS remained unchanged. For the seven re-classified LP variants comprising nine tumors, tumor sequencing confirmed MSI-H/dMMR (8/9, 88.9%) and a second hit (7/9, 77.8%). Of these LP reclassified variants where normal tissue was available, the presence of a dMMR crypt/gland was found in 2/4 (50%). Furthermore, a dMMR endometrial gland in a carrier of an MSH2 exon 1-6 duplication provides further support for an upgrade of this VUS to LP. Our study confirmed that identifying these Lynch syndrome features can improve MMR variant classification, enabling optimal clinical care.

Background. Lynch syndrome is the most common genetic predisposition for hereditary cancer. Carriers of pathogenic changes in mismatch repair (MMR) genes have an increased risk of developing colorectal (CRC), endometrial, ovarian, urinary tract, prostate, and other cancers, depending on which gene is malfunctioning. In Lynch syndrome, differences in cancer incidence (penetrance) according to the gene involved have led to the stratification of cancer surveillance. By contrast, any differences in penetrance determined by the type of pathogenic variant remain unknown. Objective. To determine cumulative incidences of cancer in carriers of truncating and missense or aberrant splicing pathogenic variants of the MLH1 and MSH2 genes. Methods. Carriers of pathogenic variants of MLH1 (path_MLH1) and MSH2 (path_MSH2) genes filed in the Prospective Lynch Syndrome Database (PLSD) were categorized as truncating or missense/aberrant splicing according to the InSiGHT criteria for pathogenicity. Results. Among 5199 carriers, 1045 had missense or aberrant splicing variants, and 3930 had truncating variants. Prospective observation years for the two groups were 8205 and 34,141 years, respectively, after which there were no significant differences in incidences for cancer overall or for colorectal cancer or endometrial cancers separately. Conclusion. Truncating and missense or aberrant splicing pathogenic variants were associated with similar average cumulative incidences of cancer in carriers of path MLH1 and path_MSH2.

Performance of endoscopic procedures is associated with a risk of infection from COVID-19. This risk can be reduced by the use of personal protective equipment (PPE). However, shortage of PPE has emerged as an important issue in managing the pandemic in both traditionally high and low-resource areas. A group of clinicians and researchers from thirteen countries representing low, middle, and high-income areas has developed recommendations for optimal utilization of PPE before, during, and after gastrointestinal endoscopy with particular reference to low-resource situations. We determined that there is limited flexibility with regard to the utilization of PPE between ideal and low-resource settings. Some compromises are possible, especially with regard to PPE use, during endoscopic procedures. We have, therefore, also stressed the need to prevent transmission of COVID-19 by measures other than PPE and to conserve PPE by reduction of patient volume, limiting procedures to urgent or emergent, and reducing the number of staff and trainees involved in procedures. This guidance aims to optimize utilization of PPE and protection of health care providers.

Background Initiating screening at an earlier age based on cancer family history is one of the primary recommended strategies for the prevention and detection of early‐onset colorectal cancer (EOCRC), but data supporting the effectiveness of this approach are limited. The authors assessed the performance of family history–based guidelines for identifying individuals with EOCRC. Methods The authors conducted a population‐based, case‐control study of individuals aged 40 to 49 years with (2473 individuals) and without (772 individuals) incident CRC in the Colon Cancer Family Registry from 1998 through 2007. They estimated the sensitivity and specificity of family history–based criteria jointly recommended by the American Cancer Society, the US Multi‐Society Task Force on CRC, and the American College of Radiology in 2008 for early screening, and the age at which each participant could have been recommended screening initiation if these criteria had been applied. Results Family history–based early screening criteria were met by approximately 25% of cases (614 of 2473 cases) and 10% of controls (74 of 772 controls), with a sensitivity of 25% and a specificity of 90% for identifying EOCRC cases aged 40 to 49 years. Among 614 individuals meeting early screening criteria, 98.4% could have been recommended screening initiation at an age younger than the observed age of diagnosis. Conclusions Of CRC cases aged 40 to 49 years, 1 in 4 met family history–based early screening criteria, and nearly all cases who met these criteria could have had CRC diagnosed earlier (or possibly even prevented) if earlier screening had been implemented as per family history–based guidelines. Additional strategies are needed to improve the detection and prevention of EOCRC for individuals not meeting family history criteria for early screening.

Abstract Background: People with germline mutation in one of the DNA mismatch repair (MMR) genes have increased colorectal cancer risk. For these high-risk people, study findings of the relationship between alcohol consumption and colorectal cancer risk have been inconclusive. Methods: 1,925 MMR gene mutations carriers recruited into the Colon Cancer Family Registry who had completed a questionnaire on lifestyle factors were included. Weighted Cox proportional hazard regression models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for the association between alcohol consumption and colorectal cancer. Results: Colorectal cancer was diagnosed in 769 carriers (40%) at a mean (SD) age of 42.6 (10.3) years. Compared with abstention, ethanol consumption from any alcoholic beverage up to 14 g/day and >28 g/day was associated with increased colorectal cancer risk (HR, 1.50; 95% CI, 1.09–2.07 and 1.69; 95% CI, 1.07–2.65, respectively; Ptrend = 0.05), and colon cancer risk (HR, 1.78; 95% CI, 1.27–2.49 and 1.94; 95% CI, 1.19–3.18, respectively; Ptrend = 0.02). However, there was no clear evidence for an association with rectal cancer risk. Also, there was no evidence for associations between consumption of individual alcoholic beverage types (beer, wine, spirits) and colorectal, colon, or rectal cancer risk. Conclusions: Our data suggest that alcohol consumption, particularly more than 28 g/day of ethanol (∼2 standard drinks of alcohol in the United States), is associated with increased colorectal cancer risk for MMR gene mutation carriers. Impact: Although these data suggested that alcohol consumption in MMR carriers was associated with increased colorectal cancer risk, there was no evidence of a dose-response, and not all types of alcohol consumption were associated with increased risk. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev; 26(3); 366–75. ©2016 AACR.

AbstractBackground and AimTumor testing of colorectal cancers (CRC) for mismatch repair (MMR) deficiency is an effective approach to identify carriers of germline MMR gene mutation (Lynch syndrome). The aim of this study was to identify MMR gene mutation carriers in two cohorts of population‐based CRC utilizing a combination of tumor and germline testing approaches.MethodsColorectal cancers from 813 patients diagnosed with CRC < 60 years of age from the Australasian Colorectal Cancer Family Registry (ACCFR) and from 826 patients from the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study (MCCS) were tested for MMR protein expression using immunohistochemistry, microsatellite instability (MSI), BRAFV600E somatic mutation, and for MLH1 methylation. MMR gene mutation testing (Sanger sequencing and Multiplex Ligation Dependent Probe Amplification) was performed on germline DNA of patients with MMR‐deficient tumors and a subset of MMR‐proficient CRCs.ResultsOf the 813 ACCFR probands, 90 probands demonstrated tumor MMR deficiency (11.1%), and 42 had a MMR gene germline mutation (5.2%). For the MCCS, MMR deficiency was identified in the tumors of 103 probands (12.5%) and seven had a germline mutation (0.8%). All the mutation carriers were diagnosed prior to 70 years of age. Probands with a MMR‐deficient CRC without MLH1 methylation and a gene mutation were considered Lynch‐like and comprised 41.1% and 25.2% of the MMR‐deficient CRCs for the ACCFR and MCCS, respectively.ConclusionsIdentification of MMR gene mutation carriers in Australian CRC‐affected patients is optimized by immunohistochemistry screening of CRC diagnosed before 70 years of age. A significant proportion of MMR‐deficient CRCs will have unknown etiology (Lynch‐like) proving problematic for clinical management.

Germline mutations in the DNA base excision repair gene MUTYH are known to increase a carrier's risk of colorectal cancer. However, the risks of other (extracolonic) cancers for MUTYH mutation carriers are not well defined. We identified 266 probands (91% Caucasians) with a MUTYH mutation (41 biallelic and 225 monoallelic) from the Colon Cancer Family Registry. Mutation status, sex, age and histories of cancer from their 1,903 first‐ and 3,255 second‐degree relatives were analyzed using modified segregation analysis conditioned on the ascertainment criteria. Compared with incidences for the general population, hazard ratios (HRs) (95% confidence intervals [CIs]) for biallelic MUTYH mutation carriers were: urinary bladder cancer 19 (3.7–97) and ovarian cancer 17 (2.4–115). The HRs (95% CI) for monoallelic MUTYH mutation carriers were: gastric cancer 9.3 (6.7–13); hepatobiliary cancer 4.5 (2.7–7.5); endometrial cancer 2.1 (1.1–3.9) and breast cancer 1.4 (1.0–2.0). There was no evidence for an increased risk of cancers at the other sites examined (brain, pancreas, kidney or prostate). Based on the USA population incidences, the estimated cumulative risks (95% CI) to age 70 years for biallelic mutation carriers were: bladder cancer 25% (5–77%) for males and 8% (2–33%) for females and ovarian cancer 14% (2–65%). The cumulative risks (95% CI) for monoallelic mutation carriers were: gastric cancer 5% (4–7%) for males and 2.3% (1.7–3.3%) for females; hepatobiliary cancer 3% (2–5%) for males and 1.4% (0.8–2.3%) for females; endometrial cancer 3% (2%–6%) and breast cancer 11% (8–16%). These unbiased estimates of both relative and absolute risks of extracolonic cancers for people, mostly Caucasians, with MUTYH mutations will be important for their clinical management.