Melton, L. Joseph

Among the 1135 Rochester residents discovered to have diabetes in the period 1945–69, the prevalence of retinopathy was 2.6% at the time of initial diagnosis. Among those free of retinopathy at diagnosis of diabetes, the subsequent incidence of any retinopathy was 17.4 per 1000 person-years and for proliferative retinopathy alone was 1.6 per 1000 person-years, based on 12,000 person-years of follow-up. The incidence rate of retinopathy was almost three times greater among residents with insulin-dependent (IDDM) than with non-insulin-dependent diabetes (NIDDM); however, the actual number of retinopathy cases was over four times greater among the more numerous residents with NIDDM. By 20 yr after diagnosis of diabetes, the cumulative incidence of retinopathy approached 70% among IDDM subjects and was 30% and 36%, respectively, among the obese and nonobese NIDDM residents. The epidemiologic patterns for proliferative retinopathy were qualitatively similar to those for nonproliferative retinopathy. The risk of blindness was greater among those with proliferative than with nonproliferative retinopathy but was substantial even for those without retinopathy. Most blindness was caused by factors other than isolated diabetic retinopathy.

In a population-based investigation among the residents of Rochester, Minnesota, the diabetes mortality rate was 8.5 per 100,000 person-years with diabetes as the underlying cause of death, 31.5 per 100,000 person-years with diabetes as an underlying or contributory cause, and 82.7 per 100,000 person-years if all deaths among diabetic individuals were counted. Diabetes was not mentioned on the certificate in 62% of the 428 diabetic deaths during 1965–1974. When the clinical characteristics of the subgroup of mortality cases in 1969 were compared with those of the prevalence cases on 1 January 1970, it was found that mortality cases tended to be older, were more often on insulin therapy, and were more likely to have macro- and microvascular complications. Because mortality data are sometimes used to infer trends and characteristics for the diabetic population at large, it is important to recognize these biases.

Of all the known diabetic individuals residing in the community of Rochester, Minnesota, only about one-half would have been recognized through a review of the medical records of 1 yr. Only one-fifth of the diabetic residents were hospitalized during the index year and a similarly small proportion were attended in a diabetes clinic. This selective process produced distortion in the apparent clinical spectrum of diabetes observed at different levels in the medical care system. Notable was overestimation of the relative importance of insulin-dependent diabetes and of the vascular complications of diabetes among hospital and diabetes clinic patients. Referral bias should be taken into account when differences are noted in the epidemiologic features of diabetes as reported from different types of medical care settings.

In a population-based study in Rochester, Minnesota, the clinical characteristics of 1135 patients newly diagnosed with diabetes (1945–69) were compared with those of 810 residents with diabetes mellitus on prevalence day (1 January 1970). The prevalence patients were older and the male:female ratio was reduced from that seen among incidence cases. The prevalence patients were more likely to be on oral agents, had lower fasting blood glucose levels, were less likely to be symptomatic, but were more likely to have macrovascular and microvascular complications. These differences seemed to come about as a result of variation in survival rates among patients with specific characteristics, differential migration of certain groups of patients, and changes in the status of individuals.

The incidence of diabetes mellitus by clinical type was determined for the community of Rochester, Minnesota, 1945–69. Overall adjusted incidence rates per 100,000 person-years were 8.4 for IDDM, 80.1 for obese NIDDM, 45.6 for nonobese NIDDM, and 3.6 for secondary diabetes, using our definitions. Strict use of National Diabetes Data Group criteria would have reduced the apparent incidence of all diabetes by about 20% through the deletion of NIDDM cases. The National Diabetes Data Group classification improved the clinical homogeneity of IDDM patients compared with “juvenile-onset” diabetes but had little effect on NIDDM relative to “maturity-onset” diabetes, since essentially the same patients were included in both groups. Separation of NIDDM into obese and nonobese subcategories accomplished little in the way of defining two more homogeneous subgroups.

OBJECTIVE—Increasing obesity within the general population has been accompanied by rising rates of diabetes. The extent to which obesity has increased among people with diabetes is unknown, as are the potential consequences for diabetes outcomes. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS—Community medical records (hospital and ambulatory) of all Rochester, Minnesota, residents aged ≥30 years who first met standardized research criteria for diabetes from 1970 to 1989 (n = 1,306) were reviewed to obtain data on BMI and related characteristics as of the diabetes identification date (±3 months). Vital status as of 31 December 1999 and date of death for those who died were obtained from medical records, State of Minnesota death tapes, and active follow-up. RESULTS—As of the identification date, data on BMI were available for 1,290 cases. Of the 272 who first met diabetes criteria in 1970–1974, 33% were obese (BMI ≥30), including 5% who were extremely obese (BMI ≥40). These proportions increased to 49% (P < 0.001) and 9% (P = 0.012), respectively, for the 426 residents who first met diabetes criteria in 1985–1989. BMI increased significantly with increasing calendar year of diabetes identification in multivariable regression analysis. Analysis of survival revealed an increased hazard of mortality for BMI ≥41, relative to BMI of 23–25 (hazard ratio 1.60, 95% CI 1.09–2.34, P = 0.016). CONCLUSIONS—The prevalence of obesity and extreme obesity among individuals at the time they first met criteria for diabetes has increased over time. This is disturbing in light of the finding that diabetic individuals who are extremely obese are at increased risk of mortality compared with their nonobese diabetic counterparts.

OBJECTIVE To evaluate both the concordance in the classification of diabetes by clinical and C-peptide criteria and, prospectively, the consistency of the classification by C-peptide. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS Individuals with diabetes who were enlisted in the prospective epidemiological study of diabetic neuropathy (Rochester Diabetic Neuropathy Study [RDNS]) were classified clinically by National Diabetes Data Group (NDDG) criteria to IDDM and NIDDM at entry to the study. In addition, C-peptide response to 1 mg glucagon was measured at entry for the classification to IDDM (basal C-peptide, < 0.17 pmol/ml; increment above basal, < 0.07 pmol/ml) and NIDDM (all other responses) and for concordance with the clinical classification made. The consistency of the C-peptide response was assessed every 2 years for up to 8 years. RESULTS Among 346 individuals with diabetes, 84 were classified as IDDM and 262 as NIDDM by clinical algorithm. COncordance with the C-peptide response occurred in 89% of the patients and remained consistent during 8 years of follow-up. Among the 37 patients with discordant clinical and C-peptide classification, those considered clinically to have NIDDM had a consistent IDDM C-peptide response during follow-up, and most of those considered to have IDDM clinically eventually showed an IDDM C-peptide response during follow-up. CONCLUSIONS Clinical criteria for the classification of diabetes are highly correlated with the assessment of insulin secretory reserve. A small number of individuals considered to have NIDDM clinically or by C-peptide have or develop an IDDM peptide response.

Objective: Although the epidemiology of microscopic colitis has been described in Europe, no such data exist from North America. We studied the incidence, prevalence and temporal trends of microscopic colitis in a geographically defined US population. Design and setting: In this population based cohort study, residents of Olmsted County, Minnesota, with a new diagnosis of microscopic colitis, and all who had colon biopsies for evaluation of diarrhoea, between 1 January 1985 and 31 December 2001 were identified. Biopsies were reviewed for confirmation (cases) and to identify missed cases (diarrhoea biopsies). Main outcome measures: Incidence rates, age and sex adjusted to the 2000 US white population. Poisson regression assessed the association of calendar period, age and sex with incidence. Results: We identified 130 incident cases for an overall rate of 8.6 cases per 100 000 person-years. There was a significant secular trend, with incidence increasing from 1.1 per 100 000 early in the study to 19.6 per 100 000 by the end (p<0.001). Rates increased with age (p<0.001). By subtype, the incidence was 3.1 per 100 000 for collagenous colitis and 5.5 per 100 000 for lymphocytic colitis. Collagenous colitis was associated with female sex (p<0.001) but lymphocytic colitis was not. Prevalence (per 100 000 persons) on 31 December 2001 was 103.0 (39.3 for collagenous colitis and 63.7 for lymphocytic colitis). Conclusions: The incidence of microscopic colitis has increased significantly over time, and by the end of the study, the incidence and prevalence were significantly higher than reported previously. Microscopic colitis is associated with older age, and collagenous colitis is associated with female sex.

Abstract In a population-based, cross-sectional study, we related age-associated changes in vBMD and in bone structural parameters to circulating bioavailable estradiol and testosterone levels in men. Associations between these bone mass/structural parameters and sex steroid levels were progressively stronger with age. Our previously postulated “threshold” for skeletal estrogen deficiency was most evident at cortical sites. Introduction: Serum sex steroids, particularly estrogen levels, are associated with bone mass in men, and previous work has suggested that there may be a “threshold” bioavailable estradiol (bio E2) level below which the male skeleton becomes estrogen deficient. However, previous studies addressing this issue have exclusively used DXA, which cannot separate trabecular from cortical bone or provide information on bone geometry or structure. Materials and Methods: In an age-stratified population sample of 314 men (age, 22-91 years), we assessed volumetric BMD (vBMD) and bone geometry by QCT at the lumbar spine, femoral neck, distal radius, and distal tibia and related these to circulating bio E2 and bio testosterone (T) levels. Results: Compared with young men (age, 20-39 years), middle-aged men (age, 40-59 years) had significantly lower bio T (−26%, p &lt; 0.001) and bio E2 (−9%, p = 0.038) levels, and these decreases were even greater in the elderly men (age ≥ 60 years, −60% and −38% for bio T and bio E2, respectively, p &lt; 0.001 for both). Reflecting their intact gonadal status, vBMD/structural parameters were not related to sex steroid levels in young men, whereas bio E2 levels were associated consistently with vBMD and variably with bone geometric parameters in the elderly men; middle-aged men showed associations with bio E2 and bio T at some sites. At all cortical sites, vBMD was associated with bio E2 at low (&lt;30 pM, R = 0.27-0.41, p &lt; 0.05-0.001) but not high (≥30 pM, R = −0.003 to 0.12, p = not significant) levels; no such differences were evident at trabecular sites. Conclusions: In men, bio E2 is the most consistent predictor of vBMD and some bone geometric variables as assessed by QCT. We also extend our previous findings on a possible “threshold” for skeletal estrogen deficiency by showing that this is most evident for cortical sites.

Abstract Localized disruption of bone architecture leads to an increased risk of pathological fractures in patients with Paget's disease, but the impact of the disease on overall fracture risk is unknown. We addressed this issue among 236 Olmsted County, Minnesota residents (107 women and 129 men) first diagnosed with Paget's disease from 1950 through 1994. These subjects (mean ± SD age at diagnosis, 69.6 ± 12.2 years) were followed subsequently for 2798 person-years. During this period of observation, 33 pathological fractures were attributed to Paget's disease (1 skull, 11 vertebra, 1 shaft/distal humerus, 1 pelvis, 6 proximal femur, 2 shaft/distal femur, and 11 tibia/fibula). Excluding the fractures through pagetic bone, there was no increase in overall fracture risk in this cohort (standardized incidence ratio [SIR], 1.2; 95% CI, 0.9-1.4). However, there was a statistically significant increase in the risk of subsequent vertebra (SIR, 3.0; 95% CI, 2.2-4.1) and rib fractures (SIR, 1.7; 95% CI, 1.1-2.4) but not fractures of the proximal femur (SIR, 0.6; 95% CI, 0.3-1.1) or distal forearm (SIR, 1.4; 95% CI, 0.7-2.5). Thus, unselected patients with Paget's disease in the community, who mostly have mild disease, have a significantly increased risk of vertebral fractures, although this may relate partly to increased surveillance. Additional work is needed to clarify the relationship between Paget's disease and vertebral fractures and to identify individuals at increased risk for more aggressive therapy.