Fallon, Michael B.

A 6-minute walk test is a simple tool for assessing submaximal exercise capacity. We sought to determine whether a 6-minute walk distance (6MWD) predicts outcomes in patients with cirrhosis. The Pulmonary Vascular Complications of Liver Disease 2 study is a multicenter, prospective cohort study that enrolled adults with portal hypertension during liver transplantation evaluation. We excluded subjects with an incident or prevalent portopulmonary hypertension. The 6-minute walk test was performed using standardized methods. Cox proportional hazards modeling and multivariable linear regression analysis were performed to determine the relationship between baseline 6MWD and outcomes. The study sample included 352 subjects. The mean 6MWD was 391±101 m. For each 50-meter decrease in 6MWD, there was a 25% increase in the risk of death (HR 1.25, 95% CI [1.11, 1.41], p < 0.001) after adjustment for age, gender, body mass index, MELD-Na, and liver transplant as a time-varying covariate. In a multistate model, each 50-meter decrease in 6MWD was associated with an increased risk of death before the liver transplant ( p < 0.001) but not after the transplant. 6MWD was similar to MELD-Na in discriminating mortality. Each 50-meter decrease in 6MWD was associated with an increase in all-cause ( p < 0.001) and transplant-free hospitalizations ( p < 0.001) in multivariable models for time-to-recurrent events. Shorter 6MWD was associated with worse Short Form-36 physical ( p < 0.001) and mental component scores ( p = 0.05). In conclusion, shorter 6MWD is associated with an increased risk of death, hospitalizations, and worse quality of life in patients evaluated for liver transplantation. The 6-minute walk distance may be a useful adjunct for risk assessment in patients undergoing liver transplant evaluation.

AbstractBackgroundThe prognosis of acute kidney disease (AKD), defined as a glomerular filtration rate of <60 ml/min/1.73 m2 or a rise in serum creatinine (sCr) of <50% for <3 months, is not clearly known.AimTo study the prevalence, predictive factors and clinical outcomes in hospitalized cirrhotic patients with AKD.MethodsThe North American Consortium for the Study of End‐Stage Liver Disease prospectively enrolled hospitalized decompensated cirrhotic patients. Patients were separated into those with normal renal function (controls or C), AKD or stage 1 AKI as their worst renal dysfunction per International Club of Ascites definition and compared. Parameters assessed included demographics, laboratory data, haemodynamics, renal and patient outcomes.Results1244 patients with cirrhosis and ascites (C: 704 or 57%; AKD: 176 or 14%; stage 1 AKI: 364 or 29%) with similar demographics were enrolled. AKD patients had similar baseline sCr but higher hospital admission in the previous 6 months, and higher peak sCr, compared to controls, with their peak sCr being lower than that in stage 1 AKI patients (all P < .0001). The in‐hospital and 30‐day survival for AKD patients were intermediary between that for controls and stage 1 AKI patients (96% vs 91% vs 86%, P < .0001). The strongest predictors for AKD development while in hospital were the presence of a second infection (OR: 2.44) and diabetes (OR: 1.53).ConclusionsPatients with AKD had intermediate outcomes between stage 1 AKI and controls. AKD patients, especially those with diabetes and a second infection, need careful monitoring and prompt treatment for AKD to prevent negative outcomes.

INTRODUCTION: Readmission and death in cirrhosis are common, expensive, and difficult to predict. Our aim was to evaluate the abilities of multiple artificial intelligence (AI) techniques to predict clinical outcomes based on variables collected at admission, during hospitalization, and at discharge. METHODS: We used the multicenter North American Consortium for the Study of End-Stage Liver Disease (NACSELD) cohort of cirrhotic inpatients who are followed up through 90-days postdischarge for readmission and death. We used statistical methods to select variables that are significant for readmission and death and trained 3 AI models, including logistic regression (LR), kernel support vector machine (SVM), and random forest classifiers (RFC), to predict readmission and death. We used the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) from 10-fold crossvalidation for evaluation to compare sexes. Data were compared with model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) at discharge. RESULTS: We included 2,170 patients (57 ± 11 years, MELD 18 ± 7, 61% men, 79% White, and 8% Hispanic). The 30-day and 90-day readmission rates were 28% and 47%, respectively, and 13% died at 90 days. Prediction for 30-day readmission resulted in 0.60 AUC for all patients with RFC, 0.57 AUC with LR for women-only subpopulation, and 0.61 AUC with LR for men-only subpopulation. For 90-day readmission, the highest AUC was achieved with kernel SVM and RFC (AUC = 0.62). We observed higher predictive value when training models with only women (AUC = 0.68 LR) vs men (AUC = 0.62 kernel SVM). Prediction for death resulted in 0.67 AUC for all patients, 0.72 for women-only subpopulation, and 0.69 for men-only subpopulation, all with LR. MELD-Na model AUC was similar to those from the AI models. DISCUSSION: Despite using multiple AI techniques, it is difficult to predict 30- and 90-day readmissions and death in cirrhosis. AI model accuracies were equivalent to models generated using only MELD-Na scores. Additional biomarkers are needed to improve our predictive capability (See also the visual abstract at http://links.lww.com/AJG/B710).

Background and Aims Portopulmonary hypertension (POPH) was previously associated with a single‐nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) rs7175922 in aromatase (cytochrome P450 family 19 subfamily A member 1 [CYP19A1]). We sought to determine whether genetic variants and metabolites in the estrogen signaling pathway are associated with POPH. Approach and Results We performed a multicenter case‐control study. POPH patients had mean pulmonary artery pressure >25 mm Hg, pulmonary vascular resistance >240 dyn‐sec/cm−5, and pulmonary artery wedge pressure ≤15 mm Hg without another cause of pulmonary hypertension. Controls had advanced liver disease, right ventricular (RV) systolic pressure <40 mm Hg, and normal RV function by echocardiography. We genotyped three SNPs in CYP19A1 and CYP1B1 using TaqMan and imputed SNPs in estrogen receptor 1 using genome‐wide markers. Estrogen metabolites were measured in blood and urine samples. There were 37 patients with POPH and 290 controls. Mean age was 57 years, and 36% were female. The risk allele A in rs7175922 (CYP19A1) was significantly associated with higher levels of estradiol (P = 0.02) and an increased risk of POPH (odds ratio [OR], 2.36; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.12‐4.91; P = 0.02) whereas other SNPs were not. Lower urinary 2‐hydroxyestrogen/16‐α‐hydroxyestrone (OR per 1‐ln decrease = 2.04; 95% CI, 1.16‐3.57; P = 0.01), lower plasma levels of dehydroepiandrosterone‐sulfate (OR per 1‐ln decrease = 2.38; 95% CI, 1.56‐3.85; P < 0.001), and higher plasma levels of 16‐α‐hydroxyestradiol (OR per 1‐ln increase = 2.16; 95% CI, 1.61‐2.98; P < 0.001) were associated with POPH. Conclusions Genetic variation in aromatase and changes in estrogen metabolites were associated with POPH.

We investigated the prevalence of spirometric restriction in liver transplantation (LT) candidates and the clinical impacts of restriction. We performed a cross‐sectional study within the Pulmonary Vascular Complications of Liver Disease 2 (PVCLD2) study, a multicenter prospective cohort study of patients being evaluated for LT. Patients with obstructive lung disease or missing spirometry or chest imaging were excluded. Patients with and without restriction, defined as a forced vital capacity (FVC) <70% predicted, were compared. Restriction prevalence was 18.4% (63/343). Higher Model for End‐Stage Liver Disease–sodium score (odds ratio [OR], 1.06; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.02‐1.11; P = 0.007), the presence of pleural effusions (OR, 3.59; 95% CI, 1.96‐6.58; P < 0.001), and a history of ascites (OR, 2.59; 95% CI, 1.26‐5.33; P = 0.01) were associated with the presence of restriction, though one‐third with restriction had neither pleural effusions nor ascites. In multivariate analysis, restriction was significantly and independently associated with lower 6‐minute walk distances (least squares mean, 342.0 [95% CI, 316.6‐367.4] m versus 395.7 [95% CI, 381.2‐410.2] m; P < 0.001), dyspnea (OR, 2.69; 95% CI, 1.46‐4.95; P = 0.002), and lower physical component summary Short Form 36 scores indicating worse quality of life (least squares mean, 34.1 [95% CI, 31.5‐36.7] versus 38.2 [95% CI, 36.6‐39.7]; P = 0.004). Lower FVC percent predicted was associated with an increased risk of death (hazard ratio, 1.16; 95% CI, 1.04‐1.27 per 10‐point decrease in FVC percent predicted; P = 0.01). Restriction and abnormal lung function are common in LT candidates; can be present in the absence of an obvious cause, such as pleural effusions or ascites; and is associated with worse exercise capacity, quality of life, and survival.

OBJECTIVES: Nosocomial infections (NIs) can be a major cause of morbidity and mortality in cirrhosis. This study aims to define the determinants of NI development and its impact on 30-day outcomes among hospitalized patients with cirrhosis. METHODS: North American Consortium for the Study of End-Stage Liver Disease enrolled patients with cirrhosis who were admitted nonelectively. Admission variables and 30-day outcomes were compared between patients with and without NI. These were also compared based on whether there was an isolated admission infection, NI, or both. Models were created for NI development using admission variables and for 30-day mortality. RESULTS: The study included 2,864 patients; of which, 15% (n = 436) developed NI. When comparing NI vs no NI, 1,866 patients were found to be infection free, whereas 562 had admission infections only, 228 had only NI, and 208 had both infections. At admission, patients with NI were more likely to be infected and have advanced cirrhosis. NIs were associated with higher rates of acute-on-chronic liver failure, death, and transplant regardless of admission infections. Patients with NI had higher respiratory infection, urinary tract infection, Clostridium difficile infection, fungal infections, and infection with vancomycin-resistant enterococci compared with patients without NI. Risk factors for NIs were admission infections, model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) > 20, systemic inflammatory response syndrome criteria, proton pump inhibitor, rifaximin, and lactulose use, but the regression model (sensitivity, 0.67; specificity, 0.63) was not robust. Age, alcohol etiology, admission MELD score, lactulose use, acute-on-chronic liver failure, acute kidney injury, intensive care unit, and NI increased the risk of death, whereas rifaximin decreased the risk of death. DISCUSSION: NIs are prevalent in hospitalized patients with cirrhosis and are associated with poor outcomes. Although higher MELD scores and systemic inflammatory response syndrome are associated with NI, all hospitalized patients with cirrhosis require vigilance and preventive strategies.