Shi, Qian

3533 Background: PFS has previously been established as a surrogate for OS based on IPD from first-line mCRC trials conducted before 1999. As mCRC treatment (trt) has advanced in the last decade and OS has increased from 1 to 2 years, this surrogacy required re-examination. Methods: IPD from 16,762 pts, median age 62, 62% male, 53% ECOG PS 0 were available from 22 1st line mCRC studies conducted from 1997-2006; 12 tested targeted (anti-angiogenic and/or anti-EGFR) regimens. The relationship between PFS (first event of progression or death) and OS was evaluated at patient-, trt-arm-, and trial-levels using correlation (corr.) coefficients and R2 (closer to 1 the better) from weighted least square (WLS) regression of arm-specific survival rates and trial-specific hazard ratios (HRs), estimated using Cox and Copula bivariate models. The concordance of significance (CoS) of the treatment effects (TEs) on both endpoints was calculated. Results: 44% pts received a targeted regimen. Median PFS was 8 and OS was18 months. The corr. between PFS and OS was modest at all three levels with low CoS in TE comparisons (see Table). Analyses limited to trials testing targeted trts, non-strategy trials, or superiority trials did not improve surrogacy. Conclusions: In modern mCRC trials, where survival post-first progression exceeds time to first progression, PFS TEs do not reliably predict TEs on OS. Nonetheless, until alternative endpoints of clinical benefit can be validated, PFS remains a relevant primary endpoint for 1st line mCRC trials, as our data demonstrate that the ability for any agent to produce an OS benefit from a single line of therapy is challenging. [Table: see text]

3617 Background: In metastatic colorectal cancer (CRC), previous studies suggested potential relationships between certain drug metabolizing (DM) genes (DPYD, ERCC2, GSTP1 and TYMS) and QOL prior to receipt of chemotherapy (Sloan, Plenary Session ASCO 2004). The current study is the first to examine relationships between similar DM genes and QOL in stage III CC pts. Methods: 1,583 CC pts on a randomized adjuvant stage III, phase III trial received FOLFOX, FOLFIRI, or either +/- Cetuximab. Genomic DNA and baseline QOL data via linear analogue self assessment (LASA) scales with 4 QOL variables were obtained. 53 DM SNPs were selected for known functional effect within potential regulatory sites. Two-sample t-tests assessed differences in QOL between pts with variants and wild-type status. Differences of at least 10 points on a 0-100 point QOL score were considered clinically significant. Results: 14 relationships between DM genes and QOL were detected at the nominal p < 0.05 level; six of these were related to DPYD, ERCC2, GSTP1 and TYMS. Relationships were also observed at the 0.05 level with polymorphisms of genes DPYS, ERCC1, MGMT, MTHFR, OPRT and UGT1A1 based on unadjusted and adjusted association tests. GSTP1 I105V and OPRT 5’UTR 28 A>G markers differed on fatigue scores (p=0.04, 0.005, respectively). Variants on MTHFR R594Q were associated with higher mental acuity scores (p=0.02). These relationships remained after adjusting for age, gender, race, T stage, PS, disease site, lymph nodes involved, and grade. The robustness of the observed associations varied with the multiple comparison adjustment method. Conclusions: Similar to the earlier study of stage IV CRC, we observed a possible relationship in pts with Stage III CC with regard to DM genes and QOL, although these relationships were more modest than observed in Stage IV pts. These DM genes may be in linkage disequilibrium with other genetic variants that more directly affect behavior and QOL. Further genome wide association studies are needed to clarify these relationships.

3576 Background: Identification of a marker with strong prognostic impact on clinical outcomes would aid in the management of pts with primary, curatively resected CRC. We conducted a pooled individual pt data analysis to confirm the prognostic value of pTIMP-1 for overall survival (OS) in stage II and III CRC. Methods: pTIMP-1 was determined in plasma using immunoassays. Samples and clinical data were included from 5 studies with a total of 1,042 stage II/III pts resected between 1991 – 2006 (Holten-Andersen (HA), 2000 [n=378], HA, 2004 [n=226], Waas, 2005 [52], Birgisson, 2010 [225], Nielsen, 2011[n=161]). To provide comparable measures across studies, pTIMP-1 values were rescaled using fractional ranks (FR, based on ranks and sample size). Pts were grouped by the median of the pTIMP-1 FR score. Stratified log-rank tests and multivariate Cox models assessed the association between OS and pTIMP-1 FR. Results: Overall, 59% were male; median age 69 years; 56% had stage II disease and 50% had colon cancer. The median follow-up was 5.5 years with 457 deaths. Continuous pTIMP-1 FR as a linear effect was significantly associated with OS (p < .0001, HR=1.38 for a 0.3 unit increase in FR score, 95% CI 1.25 to 1.52).Pts with pTIMP-1 FR above vs below the median had significantly shorter OS (HR, 1.72; 95% confidence interval[CI], 1.42 to 2.08, p <0.0001), which remained significant after adjusting for age, gender, stage, disease location, and serological CEA (HR, 1.31; 95%CI, 1.07 to 1.60; p = 0.009). Results by stage are shown in the table. No evidence of an interaction between pTIMP-1 and stage or disease location (colon vs. rectal) was observed (all p > 0.6). Conclusions: pTIMP-1 is a strong prognostic marker for predicting OS independent of age, gender, CEA, stage and site of disease in curatively resected stage II and III CRC. [Table: see text]

3526 Background: Prior observational studies have suggested that smoking is associated with poorer overall survival after colon cancer (CC) diagnosis. Using data from N0147, a phase III randomized adjuvant trial of patients with stage III CC, we assessed the relationship between smoking status and cancer outcomes (disease-free survival (DFS) and time to recurrence (TTR)), accounting for possible heterogeneity by patient and tumor characteristics. Methods: Patients completed a risk factor questionnaire at baseline prior to randomization to FOLFOX or FOLFOX+cetuximab (N=1968). Information was collected on smoking and other lifestyle factors, including alcohol consumption, body mass index (BMI), and physical activity. Multivariate Cox models assessed the association between smoking history and the primary trial outcome of DFS, as well TTR, adjusting for other lifestyle and clinical factors. The median follow-up was 3.5 years. Results: Overall, 52% of patients were former or current smokers. Compared to never smokers, ever smokers experienced significantly shorter DFS [3-year DFS: 70% vs 74%, hazard ratio (HR)=1.21, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.02-1.42]. This association persisted after adjusting for age, sex, tumor subsite, number of nodes involved, T-stage, mismatch repair deficiency, BRAF mutation status, performance score, physical activity, BMI, and alcohol consumption (HR=1.23, 95% CI: 1.02-1.49). There was significant interaction in this association by BRAF mutation status (p=0.02): smoking was associated with shorter DFS in BRAF wildtype CC patients (HR=1.25, 95% CI: 1.04-1.51) but not in BRAF mutant CC patients (HR=0.72, 95% CI: 0.47-1.10). Patterns of association with smoking, overall and by BRAF status, were identical in analyses of TTR. Conclusions: Overall, smoking was significantly associated with shorter DFS and TTR in CC patients. These adverse relationships were most evident in patients with BRAF wildtype CC.

3639 Background: The first phase of the multi-center prospectively specified retrospective study Validating Indicators To Associate Recurrence (VITAR), assessing the relationship between GCC gene expression in formalin fixed (FFPE) LNs and time to recurrence (TTR) in stage II CC pts not treated with adjuvant chemotherapy (Sargent, Annals Surg Onc 2011), showed promising initial results. Here we report a validation set of 463 new stage II CC pts. Methods: GCC mRNA was quantified by RT-qPCR using FFPE LNs from untreated T3N0 CC pts diagnosed from 1999-2008 with at least 12 LNs examined , blinded to clinical outcomes. Patients were classified by GCC LN ratio (LNR) (high risk: LNR > 0.1; low risk: LNR ≤ 0.1), with LNR defined as ratio of GCC positive to GCC informative LNs. Cox regression models tested the relationship between GCC and the primary endpoint of TTR, adjusted for age, tumor grade, number of LN examined pathologically, and lymphovascular invasion. Mismatch repair (MMR) status was also assessed. All primary analyses and cut-points were pre-specified. Results: 46pts (10%) recurred (rec), median follow-up was 65 months, median LNs examined was 20, and 42% (195/463) were classified high risk. Overall, TTR was not significantly associated with binary GCC LNR risk class (HR=1.47, p=.208) or DFS (HR= 1.39, p=.097). One site’s (n=97) tissue grossing method precluded appropriate LN assessment with existing GCC qualification methods. Excluding this site resulted in a TTR HR=1.91, p=0.051 (multivariate). In a post-hocanalysis excluding this site and using a 3-level GCC risk group of high (LNR > 0.20), intermediate (0.10 < LNR < 0.20) and low (LNR < 0.10), high risk group pts had a 5-yr rec risk of 22% versus 8% in low risk (HR 2.72, p=0.006). MMR status was not significantly associated with TTR (multivariate p=0.30). Conclusions: GCC status is a promising prognostic factor in appropriately staged stage II CC pts not treated with adjuvant therapy independent of traditional histopathology risk factors, but GCC determination must be performed with methodology adapted to the tissue procurement and fixation technique. Outcome associations were strengthened when considering a 3-level GCC categorization.

3576 Background: BRAF encodes a serine-threonine kinase that is a downstream effector of activated RAS. A point mutation (V600E) in BRAF occurs in a subset of colorectal cancers (CRCs) and is associated with adverse outcome and may predict non response to anti-EGFR antibodies. Detection of a BRAFV600E mutation in a CRC with microsatellite instability indicates a sporadic origin and excludes Lynch Syndrome. While BRAFV600E mutation status is determined using a DNA-based assay, antibodies against the BRAFV600E protein have recently been developed. We examined mutant BRAFV600E protein expression and its concordance with mutation status. Methods: Primary stage III colon carcinomas (50 BRAFV600E mutation carriers and 25 wild-type cases) were studied from a completed phase III adjuvant trial comparing FOLFOX +/- cetuximab (NCCTG N0147). In archival resection specimens, immunohistochemistry (IHC) was performed using a pan-BRAF antibody and a V600E mutation-specific antibody raised against an immunogenic synthetic peptide derived from the internal region of the BRAFV600E protein. BRAFV600E mutations in codon 15 were analyzed in extracted DNA using a multiplex, allele specific PCR–based assay. BRAF staining was scored independently by two pathologists blinded to mutation status. Results: In primary colon carcinomas stained with a pan-BRAF antibody, diffuse cytoplasmic staining for BRAF proteins was detected in 74 of 75 carcinomas with one case deemed non-evaluable. Using the mutation-specific BRAFV600E antibody, diffuse cytoplasmic staining was detected in 49 of 74 tumors without appreciable heterogeneity of expression. Among these 49 tumors expressing mutant BRAFV600E proteins, all (100%) were found to carry a BRAFV600E mutation according to a DNA-based assay. In contrast, absent BRAFV600E staining was observed in all 25 tumors that were found to have wild-type copies of BRAFV600E detected using a PCR-based assay. Conclusions: For the detection of mutant BRAFV600E, complete concordance was found between IHC and a DNA-based method in colon carcinomas. This finding supports the use of IHC as a simplified strategy to screen CRCs for mutant BRAFV600E proteins in routine clinical practice to inform clinical decision-making.

3520 Background: EOTR has been suggested as a potential surrogate for overall survival (OS) in patients (pts) with mCRC and allows early assessment of treatment efficacy, facilitating adaptive trial design. We assessed at the individual patient level, the correlation between EOTR (complete or partial response) at 6, 8 and 12 weeks (wk), OS and progression free survival (PFS) in pts with mCRC treated with 1stline chemotherapy with or without a targeted agent as a first step in a surrogacy demonstration. Methods: IPD from 13,949 pts enrolled on 15 randomized Phase III trials in 1st line mCRC were used; 8 trials included targeted (anti-angiogenic and anti-EGFR) agents. EOTR prognostic value was assessed by landmark analyses using Cox models stratified by treatment assignment. P-values <0.01 were considered statistically significant to account for multiple comparisons. Results: Of 13,949 pts, 11,987 had sufficient response data to be included in the analysis. Median OS was 21.7 months (mo) in pts with an EOTR vs. 16.5 mo without EOTR at 6 wk (p<.0001, Hazard Ratio [HR] 0.64, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.58-0.70, c statistic [c] 0.55). HRs were similar whether pts were treated with targeted therapies (p<.0001, HR 0.68, 95% CI 0.58-0.80, x 0.54) or non-targeted therapies (p<.0001, HR 0.61, 95% CI 0.55-0.69, x 0.55). Median PFS was 8.4 mo in pts with EOTR at 6 wk vs. 7.0 mo in pts without EOTR (p<.0001, HR 0.79, 95% CI 0.73-0.85). EOTR at 8 and 12 wks were also significantly associated with longer OS and PFS. The prognostic value of EOTR at 6, 8 and 12 wks remained significant (p<0.0001) after adjusting for age, gender, performance statusand location of metastatic disease (lung or liver). Overall tumor response (to 26 wk) however provided superior OS prediction (p<.0001, HR 0.51, 95% CI, 0.47-0.56, CS 0.61) vs. EOTR. Conclusions: Early response measured at 6, 8 or 12 wk after starting 1st line treatment was a strong and independent predictor of both OS and PFS in patient with mCRC and warrants further consideration as a potential endpoint for future trials, particularly randomized phase II trials.

3510 Background: Prediction of 5-FU-related adverse events (5FU-AEs) continues to be problematic. Pharmacogenetic studies on the rate-limiting enzyme in 5-FU metabolism, dihydropyrimidine dehydrogenase (DPD), suggest a link between three variants and both decreased enzyme activity and increased toxicity: c.1905+1 G>A (DPYD*2A; rs3918290), c.1679 T>G (I560S; DPYD*13; rs55886062), and c.2846A>T (D949V; rs67376798). Since the adverse impact of DPYD variants on 5-FU toxicity remains controversial, we determined associations between the three known DPYD variants and 5FU-AEs in stage III CC patients receiving FOLFOX or FOLFIRI (+ cetuximab) after curative resection. Methods: 2886 patients were genotyped by multiplexed single-base extension assays using the IPLEX Gold Kit and analyzed on the Sequenom MassARRAY system. Grade 3+ AEs were recorded per CTCAE v3. Fisher’s exact test, unequal variance two-sample t-test, and Wilcoxon rank sum test were used to compare categorical variables, continuous variables, and counts between patients with wild-type and mutant status. Logistic regressions were used to assess univariate and multivariate associations. Results: Patients displayed the following characteristics: male gender 53.2%, median age 58 [19-86], proficient DNA mismatch repair status 88.6%, PS-0 76.6%, + irinotecan 8.1%, and + cetuximab 45.9%. A total of 27 (0.9%), 4 (0.1%), and 32 (1.1%) patients carried the DPYD*2A, I560S, and D949V variants, respectively. Analysis identified significant associations between DPYD*2A and D949V variants and toxicity, with grade 3+ 5FU-AEs identified in 22 DPYD*2A carriers (OR=11.9, 95% CI 4.0-32.7, p<0.0001) and 22 D949V carriers (OR=5.5, 95% CI 2.5-12.1, p< 0.0001). No interaction effect was found between DPYD*2Aand D949V on grade 3+ 5FU-AEs (p = 0.98), nor on overall grade 3+ AEs (p = 0.97). No significant association was identified between I560S and grade 3+ 5FU-AEs. Conclusions: In the largest study to date, statistically significant associations were found between DPYD*2A and D949V variants and increased incidence of grade 3+ 5FU-AEs, suggesting utility in 5-FU toxicity prediction.

4075 Background: EAC recurrence after surgery with curative intent is believed to carry a uniformly dismal prognosis that may discourage further therapy. To date, the post-recurrence survival of patients has not been examined in EAC. Our aim was to examine site of recurrence in relation to outcome in EAC patients after surgery. Methods: Among EAC patients (N = 796) rendered margin-free at surgery performed at Mayo Clinic, most were T3-4 and lymph node (LN)-positive; none received neoadjuvant therapy. The patient subset who had documented disease recurrence (N = 401) formed the current study population. Cox models were used to examine overall survival (OS) post-recurrence. Results: Among patients with recurrence, median time to recurrence (TTR) was 11 months. Site of recurrence included loco-regional (regional LNs, esophagogastric, anastomosis), chest, abdomen, or distant sites in 97 (27%), 144 (40%), 181 (50%), and 88 (24%) patients, respectively. Most recurrences (66%) were limited to one site. Chest-involved recurrence was significantly associated with improved OS (hazard ratio [HR] 0.78, P = .047), even after adjusting for TTR, number of recurrence sites, tumor pathology, and palliative chemotherapy. This result was confirmed when multivariate analysis was restricted to patients who had only 1 recurrence site (Table) or who had biopsy-proven recurrence (P = .080). In separate models, abdomen-involved (HR = 1.3, P = .016) or bone-involved (HR = 1.6, P= .008) recurrences were independently associated with worse OS. Conclusions: Chest-involved recurrence of EAC independently predicts for improved survival, whereas abdominal and bony sites of recurrence predict for worse outcome. Primary tumor grade and node number were durable prognosticators after recurrence. These novel data provide useful prognostic information and have the potential to influence clinical decision-making. [Table: see text]

4009 Background: HER2 expression in upper digestive cancer is reported to be heterogeneous, which substantially affects interpretation of HER2 positivity in the clinic. Yet the frequency and prognostic impact of HER2 genetic heterogeneity and polysomy 17 (poly17) are unknown in EAC. Methods: HER2 amplification (fluorescence in situ hybridization) and protein expression were examined in untreated surgical EAC specimens (N = 661) at Mayo Clinic. HER2 genetic heterogeneity was defined per ASCO/CAP as amplification (HER2/CEP17 ratio ≥ 2) in 5-50% of cancer cells; poly17 refers to ≥ 3 copies of chromosome 17. Most tumors were T3-4 (68%) or lymph node (LN)-positive (73%). Cox models were used to assess disease-specific (DSS) and overall survival (OS). Results: HER2 amplification was detected in 117 of 661 EACs (18%), of which 20 (17%) showed HER2 heterogeneity. HER2 heterogeneous tumors had a significantly higher frequency of poly17 and high tumor grade. HER2 heterogeneity by amplification vs expression were correlated. Since heterogeneity was limited to HER2-amplified tumors, survival analysis was stratified by amplification status. In multivariable analysis, only HER2 heterogeneity and metastatic LN number were prognostic (Table). Conclusions: Among HER2 amplified EACs, 17% show HER2 heterogeneity, which is associated with increased poly17 and independently predicts 2-fold higher risk of cancer-specific death. Among HER2-nonamplified cases, poly17 is independently associated with worse survival. These novel findings demonstrate aggressive subgroups in HER2-amplified and -nonamplified EACs that have important implications for HER2 analysis and evaluation of benefit from HER2 targeted therapy. [Table: see text]