Gersh, Bernard J.

Background: Type 2 myocardial infarction (T2MI) occurs because of an acute imbalance in myocardial oxygen supply and demand in the absence of atherothrombosis. Despite being frequently encountered in clinical practice, the population-based incidence and trends remain unknown, and the long-term outcomes are incompletely characterized. Methods: We prospectively recruited residents of Olmsted County, Minnesota, who experienced an event associated with a cardiac troponin T >99th percentile of a normal reference population (≥0.01 ng/mL) between January 1, 2003, and December 31, 2012. Events were retrospectively classified into type 1 myocardial infarction (T1MI, atherothombotic event), T2MI, or myocardial injury (troponin rise not meeting criteria for myocardial infarction [MI]) using the universal definition. Outcomes were long-term all-cause and cardiovascular mortality and recurrent MI. T2MI was further subclassified by the inciting event for supply/demand mismatch. Results: A total of 5460 patients had at least one cardiac troponin T ≥0.01 ng/mL; 1365 of these patients were classified as index T1MI (age, 68.5±14.8 years; 63% male) and 1054 were classified as T2MI (age, 73.7±15.8 years; 46% male). The annual incidence of T1MI decreased markedly from 202 to 84 per 100 000 persons between 2003 and 2012 ( P <0.001), whereas the incidence of T2MI declined from 130 to 78 per 100 000 persons ( P =0.02). In comparison with patients with T1MI, patients with T2MI had higher long-term all-cause mortality after adjustment for age and sex, driven by early and noncardiovascular death. Rates of cardiovascular death were similar after either type of MI (hazard ratio, 0.8 [95% CI, 0.7–1.0], P =0.11). Subclassification of T2MI by cause demonstrated a more favorable prognosis when the principal provoking mechanism was arrhythmia, in comparison with postoperative status, hypotension, anemia, and hypoxia. After index T2MI, the most common MI during follow-up was a recurrent T2MI, whereas the occurrence of a new T1MI was relatively rare (estimated rates at 5 years, 9.7% and 1.7%). Conclusions: There has been an evolution in the type of MI occurring in the community over a decade, with the incidence of T2MI now being similar to T1MI. Mortality after T2MI is higher and driven by early and noncardiovascular death. The provoking mechanism of supply/demand mismatch affects long-term survival. These findings underscore the healthcare burden of T2MI and provide benchmarks for clinical trial design.

Background: Studies evaluating the effects of atrial fibrillation (AF) catheter ablation versus antiarrhythmic therapy on outcomes have shown mixed results. In addition, guidelines recommend continuing oral anticoagulation (OAC) after ablation for those at risk of stroke, but real-world data are lacking. Methods: We evaluated outcomes including death, myocardial infarction, stroke or systemic embolism, intracranial bleeding, major bleeding, and hospitalization in patients undergoing AF ablation compared with a propensity score matched cohort of patients treated with anti-arrhythmic medications only in the Outcomes Registry for Better Informed Treatment of Atrial Fibrillation registries. Cox proportional hazards regression was performed to evaluate the association between AF ablation and outcomes. We then evaluated patterns of treatment with OAC among AF ablation patients. Results: Among 21 595 patients, 1190 (6%) underwent de novo AF ablation. Our propensity score-matched cohort included 1087 patients who underwent AF ablation matched 1:1 with 1087 patients treated with antiarrhythmic medications only. There were no significant differences in the risk of all-cause and cardiovascular death, and most other major adverse cardiovascular and neurological events. AF catheter ablation was associated with an increased risk of all-cause hospitalization during follow-up (hazard ratio, 1.24 [95% CI, 1.05–1.46]), particularly in the first 3 months (the standard blanking period) after the procedure. Among those who underwent AF ablation with a CHA 2 DS 2 VASc score ≥2 for men and ≥3 for women, 23% had OAC discontinued after ablation. Among those who discontinued OAC, the median time to discontinuation was 6.2 months. Conclusions: In this large US national registry, we found no difference in adjusted rates of cardiovascular or all-cause death between patients treated with AF catheter ablation and antiarrhythmic medications only. Notably, discontinuation of OAC after ablation remains relatively common despite guideline recommendations for continued stroke prevention therapy in patients at risk of stroke.

Background: Extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) is increasingly used in acute myocardial infarction (AMI); however, there are limited large-scale national data. Methods: Using the National Inpatient Sample database from 2000 to 2014, a retrospective cohort of AMI utilizing ECMO was identified. Use of percutaneous coronary intervention, intra-aortic balloon pump, and percutaneous left ventricular assist device (LVAD) was also identified in this population. Outcomes of interest included temporal trends in utilization of ECMO alone and with concomitant procedures (percutaneous coronary intervention, intra-aortic balloon pump, and percutaneous LVAD), in-hospital mortality, and resource utilization. Results: In ≈9 million AMI admissions, ECMO was used in 2962 (<0.01%) and implanted a median of 1 day after admission. ECMO was used in 0.5% and 0.3% AMI admissions complicated by cardiogenic shock and cardiac arrest, respectively. ECMO was used more commonly in admissions that were younger, nonwhite, and with less comorbidity. ECMO use was 11× higher in 2014 as compared with 2000 (odds ratio, 11.37 [95% CI, 7.20–17.97]). Same-day percutaneous coronary intervention was performed in 23.1%; intra-aortic balloon pump/percutaneous LVAD was used in 57.9%, of which 30.3% were placed concomitantly. In-hospital mortality with ECMO was 59.2% overall but decreased from 100% (2000) to 45.1% (2014). Durable LVAD and cardiac transplantation were performed in 11.7% as an exit strategy. Of the hospital survivors, 40.8% were discharged to skilled nursing facilities. Older age, male sex, nonwhite race, and lower socioeconomic status were independently associated with higher in-hospital mortality with ECMO use. Conclusions: In AMI admissions, a steady increase was noted in the utilization of ECMO alone and with concomitant procedures (percutaneous coronary intervention, intra-aortic balloon pump, and percutaneous LVAD). In-hospital mortality remained high in AMI admissions treated with ECMO.

Abstract Aims Most clinical risk stratification models are based on measurement at a single time-point rather than serial measurements. Artificial intelligence (AI) is able to predict one-dimensional outcomes from multi-dimensional datasets. Using data from Global Anticoagulant Registry in the Field (GARFIELD)-AF registry, a new AI model was developed for predicting clinical outcomes in atrial fibrillation (AF) patients up to 1 year based on sequential measures of prothrombin time international normalized ratio (PT-INR) within 30 days of enrolment. Methods and results Patients with newly diagnosed AF who were treated with vitamin K antagonists (VKAs) and had at least three measurements of PT-INR taken over the first 30 days after prescription were analysed. The AI model was constructed with multilayer neural network including long short-term memory and one-dimensional convolution layers. The neural network was trained using PT-INR measurements within days 0–30 after starting treatment and clinical outcomes over days 31–365 in a derivation cohort (cohorts 1–3; n = 3185). Accuracy of the AI model at predicting major bleed, stroke/systemic embolism (SE), and death was assessed in a validation cohort (cohorts 4–5; n = 1523). The model’s c-statistic for predicting major bleed, stroke/SE, and all-cause death was 0.75, 0.70, and 0.61, respectively. Conclusions Using serial PT-INR values collected within 1 month after starting VKA, the new AI model performed better than time in therapeutic range at predicting clinical outcomes occurring up to 12 months thereafter. Serial PT-INR values contain important information that can be analysed by computer to help predict adverse clinical outcomes.

Background: The use of nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) with oral anticoagulants has been associated with an increased risk of bleeding. We investigated the risk of bleeding and major cardiovascular outcomes in patients with atrial fibrillation taking NSAIDs and apixaban or warfarin. Methods: The ARISTOTLE trial (Apixaban for Reduction in Stroke and Other Thromboembolic Events in Atrial Fibrillation; n=18 201) compared apixaban with warfarin in patients with atrial fibrillation at an increased risk of stroke. Patients in ARISTOTLE without severe renal (creatine clearance ≤30 mL/min) or liver disease were included in this analysis (n=17 423). NSAID use at baseline, NSAID use during the trial (incident NSAID use), and never users were described. The primary outcome was major bleeding. Secondary outcomes included clinically relevant nonmajor bleeding, gastrointestinal bleeding, heart failure hospitalization, stroke or systemic embolism, and all-cause mortality. NSAID use during the trial, and the interaction between randomized treatment, was analyzed using time-dependent Cox proportional hazards models. Results: Those with baseline NSAID use (n=832 [4.8%]), incident NSAID use (n=2185 [13.2%]), and never users were similar in median age (age [25th, 75th]; 70 [64, 77] versus 70 [63, 75] versus 70 [62, 76]). Those with NSAID use at baseline and incident NSAID use were more likely to have a history of bleeding than never users (24.5% versus 21.0% versus 15.6%, respectively). During a median follow-up (25th, 75th) of 1.8 (1.4, 2.3) years and when excluding those taking NSAID at baseline, we found that incident NSAID use was associated with an increased risk of major bleeding (hazard ratio [HR], 1.61 [95% CI, 1.11–2.33]) and clinically relevant nonmajor bleeding (HR, 1.70 [95% CI, 1.16–2.48]), but not gastrointestinal bleeding. No significant interaction was observed between NSAID use and randomized treatment for any outcome. Conclusions: A substantial number of patients in the ARISTOTLE trial took NSAIDs. Incident NSAID use was associated with major and clinically relevant nonmajor bleeding, but not with gastrointestinal bleeding. The safety and efficacy of apixaban versus warfarin appeared not significantly to be altered by NSAID use. This study warrants more investigation of the effect of NSAIDs on the outcomes of patients treated with apixaban. Clinical Trial Registration: URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov . Unique identifier: NCT00412984.

Abstract Background Obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) is common in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). It is not well understood if OSA impacts cardiovascular outcomes in patients with AF. Purpose To investigate patient characteristics and major adverse cardiovascular and neurological events (MACNE) in patients with AF and OSA. Methods Using the Outcomes Registry for Better Informed Treatment of Atrial Fibrillation (ORBIT-AF I) and ORBIT-AF II we compared the adjusted risk of the composite of cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, stroke/transient ischemic attack/non-CNS embolism (stroke/SE), and new-onset heart failure (MACNE) according to the presence or absence of OSA, using multivariable adjusted Cox proportional hazard models. Secondary outcomes were the individual components of MACNE. Results Among 22,760 patients with AF, there were 4,045 (17.8%) with OSA at baseline. Median follow-up time was 1.5 (IQR: 1–2.2) years. OSA patients were younger (median [IQR] 68 [61–75] years vs. 74 [66–81] years, were more likely to be male (70.7% vs. 55.3%), and had markedly increased body mass index (BMI) (median 34.6 kg/m2 [29.8–40.2] vs. 28.7 kg/m2 [25.2–33.0]). Those with OSA had a higher prevalence of diabetes (39.2% vs. 25.2%), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) (20% vs. 12%), heart failure (32.2% vs. 25.1%), and hyperlipidemia (73.2% vs. 66.7%). After adjustment, the presence of OSA was significantly associated with MACNE (HR: 1.16 [95% CI: 1.03–1.31], p=0.011) [Figure]. Stroke/SE was higher in patients with OSA (HR: 1.38 [95% CI 1.12–1.70], p=0.003). Addition of OSA to a model containing the CHA2DS2-VASc risk factors slightly improved discrimination for stroke/SE: CHA2DS2-VASc risk factors alone C-index (Standard Error) was 0.6867 (0.0125) vs. CHA2DS2-VASc risk factors plus OSA 0.6876 (0.0124), p=0.022. Figure 1. Hazard ratios with 95% confidence intervals and event rates for the association between obstructive sleep apnea and major adverse cardiovascular and neurological events combined and separately. Abbreviations: OSA; obstructive sleep apnea MACNE; major adverse cardiovascular and neurological events, CV; cardiovascular, TIA; transient ischemic attack. Conclusion One in five patients with AF in community practice had OSA. The presence of OSA was associated with higher risk of MACNE and stroke/SE. Addition of OSA to CHA2DS2-VASc risk factors only slightly improved discrimination for the occurrence of stroke. Acknowledgement/Funding The Danish Heart Foundation, T32 NIH Grant HL079896. The ORBIT-AF registry is sponsored by Janssen.

AbstractIntroductionMyocardial infarction (MI) is associated with an increase in subsequent heart failure (HF), recurrent ischemic events, sudden cardiac arrest, and ventricular arrhythmias (SCA‐VA). The primary objective of the study to determine the role of intercurrent HF and ischemic events on the development of SCA‐VA following first type I MI.Methods and resultsA retrospective cohort study of patients experiencing first type 1 MI in Olmsted County, Minnesota (2002‐2012) was conducted by identifying patients using the medical records linkage system (Rochester epidemiology project). Patients aged ≥18 years were followed from the time of MI till death or 31 July, 2017. Intercurrent HF and ischemic events were the primary exposures following MI and their association with outcome SCA‐VA was assessed. Eight hundred and sixty‐seven patients (mean age was 63 ± 14.5 years; 69% male; 49.8% ST‐elevation myocardial infarction) who had their first type I MI during the study period were included. Majority of acute MI patients were revascularized using percutaneous coronary intervention and bypass surgery (628 [72.43%] and 87 [10.03%] respectively). During a mean follow‐up of 7.69 ± 4.17 years, HF, recurrent ischemic events and SCA‐VA occurred in 155 (17.9%), 245 (28.3%), and 40 (4.61%) patients respectively. Low ejection fraction (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 0.95; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.93‐0.98; P < .001), intercurrent HF (adjusted HR 3.11; 95% CI, 1.39‐6.95; P = .006) and recurrent ischemic events (adjusted HR 3.47; 95% CI, 1.68‐7.18; P < .001) were associated with subsequent SCA‐VA.ConclusionSCA‐VA occurred in a small proportion of patients after MI and is associated with intercurrent HF and recurrent ischemic events.

Background Atrial fibrillation is the most common arrhythmia worldwide. Data regarding 30‐day readmission rates after discharge for atrial fibrillation remain poorly reported. Methods and Results The Nationwide Readmission Database (2010–2014) was queried using the International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision ( ICD‐9 ) codes to identify study population. Incidence, etiologies of 30‐day readmission and predictors of 30‐day readmissions, and cost of care were analyzed. Among 1 723 378 patients who survived to discharge, 249 343 (14.4%) patients were readmitted within 30 days. Compared with the readmitted group, the nonreadmitted group had higher utilization of electrical cardioversion and catheter ablation. Atrial fibrillation was the most common cause of readmission (24.1%). Median time to 30‐day readmission was 13 days. Advancing age, female sex, and longer stay during index hospitalization predicted higher 30‐day readmissions, whereas private insurance, electrical cardioversion, catheter ablation, higher income, and elective admissions correlated with lower 30‐day readmission. Comorbidities such as heart failure, neurological disorder, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, diabetes mellitus, chronic kidney disease, chronic liver failure, coagulopathy, anemia, peripheral vascular disease, and electrolyte disturbance, correlated with increased 30‐day readmissions and cost burden. Trend analysis showed a progressive decline in 30‐day readmission rates from 14.7% in 2010 to 14.3% in 2014 ( P trend, <0.001). Conclusions Approximately 1 in 7 patients were readmitted within 30 days of discharge, with symptomatic atrial fibrillation being the most common cause. We identified a predictive model for increased risk of readmissions and treatment expense. Electrical cardioversion during index admission was associated with a significant reduction in 30‐day readmissions and service charges. The 30‐day readmissions correlated with a substantial rise in the cost of care.