Gersh, Bernard J.

Abstract Background We have demonstrated that artificial intelligence interpretation of ECGs (AI-ECG) can estimate an individual's physiologic age and that the gap between AI-ECG and chronologic age (Age-Gap) is associated with increased mortality. We hypothesized that Age-Gap would predict long-term atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) and that Age-Gap would refine the ACC/AHA Pooled Cohort Equations' (PCE) predictive abilities. Methods Using the Rochester Epidemiology Project (REP) we evaluated a community-based cohort of consecutive patients seeking primary care between 1998–2000 and followed through March 2016. Inclusion criteria were age 40–79 and complete data to calculate PCE. We excluded those with known ASCVD, AF, HF or an event within 30 days of baseline.A neural network, trained, validated, and tested in an independent cohort of ∼ 500,000 independent patients, using 10-second digital samples of raw, 12 lead ECGs. PCE was categorized as low<5%, intermediate 5–9.9%, high 10–19.9%, and very high≥20%. The primary endpoint was ASCVD and included fatal and non-fatal myocardial infarction and ischemic stroke; the secondary endpoint also included coronary revascularization [Percutaneous Coronary Intervention (PCI) or Coronary Artery Bypass Graft (CABG)], TIA and Cardiovascular mortality. Events were validated in duplicate. Follow-up was truncated at 10 years for PCE analysis. The association between Age-Gap with ASCVD and expanded ASCVD was assessed with cox proportional hazard models that adjusted for chronological age, sex and risk factors. Models were stratified by PCE risk categories to evaluate the effect of PCE predicted risk. Results We included 24,793 patients (54% women, 95% Caucasian) with mean follow up of 12.6±5.1 years. 2,366 (9.5%) developed ASCVD events and 3,401 (13.7%) the expanded ASCVD. Mean chronologic age was 53.6±11.6 years and the AI-ECG age was 54.5±10.9 years, R2=0.7865, p<0.0001. The mean Age-Gap was 0.87±7.38 years. After adjusting for age and sex, those considered older by ECG, compared to their chronologic age had a higher risk for ASCVD when compared to those with <−2 SD age gap (considered younger by ECG). (Figure 1A), with similar results when using the expanded definition of ASCVD (data not shown). Furthermore, Age-Gap enhanced predicted capabilities of the PCE among those with low 10-year predicted risk (<5%): Age and sex adjusted HR 4.73, 95% CI 1.42–15.74, p-value=0.01 and among those with high predicted risk (>20%) age and sex adjusted HR 6.90, 95% CI 1.98–24.08, p-value=0.0006, when comparing those older to younger by ECG respectively (Figure 1B). Conclusion The difference between physiologic AI-ECG age and chronologic age is associated with long-term ASCVD, and enhances current risk calculators (PCE) ability to identify high and low risk individuals. This may help identify individuals who should or should not be treated with newer, expensive risk-reducing therapies. Funding Acknowledgement Type of funding source: Foundation. Main funding source(s): Mayo Clinic

Abstract Background While the presence left ventricular (LV) remodelling after ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) is known to worsen prognosis, the impact of progressive vs. stable LV remodelling on outcome has not been established. Purpose To investigate the impact of progressive LV remodelling on outcome in STEMI patients who were treated with primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) and optimal pharmacotherapy. Methods Baseline, 3-, 6- and 12-month echocardiograms were analysed. Early LV remodelling (ER) was defined as a ≥20% increase in LV end-diastolic volume (EDV) during the first 3 months post-STEMI, and mid-term remodelling (MTR) as ≥20% LVEDV change by 6 months. Progressive LV remodelling was defined according to spline curve analyses: ≥0% LVEDV increase by 6 months (i.e. further increase after 3 months) for ER, and ≥20% by 12 months (i.e. an additional increase after 6 months) for MTR. The impact of progressive LV remodelling on outcome was evaluated with a Log rank test. Results 589 STEMI patients (mean age 61±12 years, 78% male) who demonstrated LV remodelling in the first 6 months post-infarct, were analysed: 408 (69%) ER and 181 (31%) MTR. Progressive LV remodelling occurred in 146 (36%) ER and in 12 (7%) MTR. After a median follow-up of 90 (IQR 64–117) months, 39 (10%) ER were hospitalised for heart failure. 25 (14%) MTR remodellers died after a median follow-up of 86 (IQR 66–112) months. Progressive LV remodelling in ER led to a higher rate of heart failure hospitalisation (P=0.017 vs. non-progressive ER, Fig. 1A) but no mortality difference (P=0.10 vs. non-progressive ER). In contrast, MTR with progressive LV remodelling experienced worse survival (P=0.01 vs. non-progressive MTR, Fig. 1B) but no increase in heart failure hospitalisation (P=0.65 vs. non-progressive MTR). Conclusions Progressive LV remodelling causes an increased risk of heart failure in ER post-infarct, vs. higher mortality in MTR. These two patterns of progressive, post-infarct LV remodelling possibly represent different underlying pathophysiological mechanisms: i.e. evolution of true post-infarct remodelling in ER, vs. natural history of established heart failure in MTR. Figure 1 Funding Acknowledgement Type of funding source: None

Abstract Aims This study aims to explore long-term clinical outcomes of cardiopoiesis-guided stem cell therapy for ischaemic heart failure assessed in the Congestive Heart Failure Cardiopoietic Regenerative Therapy (CHART-1) trial. Methods and results CHART-1 is a multinational, randomized, and double-blind trial conducted in 39 centres in heart failure patients (n = 315) on standard-of-care therapy. The ‘active’ group received cardiopoietic stem cells delivered intramyocardially using a retention-enhanced catheter. The ‘control’ group underwent patient-level sham procedure. Patients were followed up to 104 weeks. In the entire study population, results of the primary hierarchical composite outcome were maintained neutral at Week 52 [Mann–Whitney estimator 0.52, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.45–0.59, P = 0.51]. Landmark analyses suggested late clinical benefit in patients with significant left ventricular enlargement receiving adequate dosing. Specifically, beyond 100 days of follow-up, patients with left ventricular end-diastolic volume of 200–370 mL treated with ≤19 injections of cardiopoietic stem cells showed reduced risk of death or cardiovascular hospitalization (hazard ratio 0.38, 95% CI 0.16–0.91, P = 0.031) and cardiovascular death or heart failure hospitalization (hazard ratio 0.28, 95% CI 0.09–0.94, P = 0.040). Cardiopoietic stem cell therapy was well tolerated long term with no difference in safety readouts compared with sham at 2 years. Conclusions Longitudinal follow-up documents that cardiopoietic stem cell therapy is overall safe, and post hoc analyses suggest benefit in an ischaemic heart failure subpopulation defined by advanced left ventricular enlargement on tolerable stem cell dosing. The long-term clinical follow-up thus offers guidance for future targeted trials.

Background: There are limited data on how sex influences the outcomes of acute myocardial infarction-cardiogenic shock (AMI-CS) in young adults. Methods: A retrospective cohort of AMI-CS admissions aged 18 to 55 years, during 2000 to 2017, was identified using the National Inpatient Sample. Use of coronary angiography, percutaneous coronary intervention, mechanical circulatory support and noncardiac interventions was identified. Outcomes of interest included in-hospital mortality, use of cardiac interventions, hospitalization costs, and length of stay. Results: A total 90 648 AMI-CS admissions ≤55 years of age were included, of which 26% were women. Higher rates of CS were noted in men (2.2% in 2000 to 4.8% in 2017) compared with women (2.6% in 2000 to 4.0% in 2017; P <0.001). Compared with men, women with AMI-CS were more frequently of Black race, from a lower socioeconomic status, with higher comorbidity, and admitted to rural and small hospitals (all P <0.001). Women had lower rates of ST-segment elevation presentation (73.0% versus 78.7%), acute noncardiac organ failure, cardiac arrest (34.3% versus 35.7%), and received less-frequent coronary angiography (78.3% versus 81.4%), early coronary angiography (49.2% versus 54.1%), percutaneous coronary intervention (59.2% versus 64.0%), and mechanical circulatory support (50.3% versus 59.2%; all P <0.001). Female sex was an independent predictor of in-hospital mortality (23.0% versus 21.7%; adjusted odds ratio, 1.11 [95% CI, 1.07–1.16]; P <0.001). Women had lower hospitalization costs ($156 372±$198 452 versus $167 669±$208 577; P <0.001) but comparable lengths of stay compared with men. Conclusions: In young AMI-CS admissions, women are treated less aggressively and experience higher in-hospital mortality than men.

Background Recent investigations suggest that inflammation and autoimmunity might have a role in the pathophysiology of atrial fibrillation (AF). Given that abnormal ventriculovascular coupling often coexists with AF, we hypothesize that autoimmune vasculitis plays a significant role in the pathogenetic mechanism of AF. Methods and Results A standardized retrospective population‐based case–control study was conducted to evaluate the association between autoimmune vasculitis and AF, and all‐cause mortality. The study included 8459 patients with a new diagnosis of AF and 8459 age‐, sex‐, and registration calendar year–matched controls in Olmsted County, Minnesota, between January 1, 1980 and December 31, 2010. The association of each clinical characteristic, diagnosis, and treatment was assessed using conditional logistic regression to account for the matched case–control study design. Cox proportional hazards regression models and Kaplan‐Meier curves were used to detect independent predictors of mortality and examine cumulative survival. Of a total of 16 918 patients (mean age 72.3+14.4 years; 48.7% women), 320 (1.9%) were diagnosed with autoimmune vasculitis before the index date during the 30‐year period. Among the cases, the prevalence of any autoimmune vasculitis was 2.3%, whereas the frequency of autoimmune vasculitis in controls was 1.5% ( P <0.001). After adjusting for potential confounders, the odds of autoimmune vasculitis in AF cases was 1.5 times higher than in controls (odds ratio, 1.47; 95% CI, 1.04–2.01; P =0.03). Patients with AF and autoimmune vasculitis had worse 5‐year survival than those without autoimmune vasculitis or AF (44.7% versus 77.2%; log‐rank P <0.001). Conclusions Autoimmune vasculitis is significantly associated with AF and independently confers worse survival. These observations may represent one mechanism linking autoimmunity and inflammation to the pathogenesis and prognosis of AF.