Friedman, Paul A.

Background Left ventricular diastolic dysfunction (LVDD) predicts mortality in patients in cardiac intensive care units. An artificial intelligence enhanced ECG (AIECG) algorithm can predict LVDD and mortality in general populations but has not been examined in cardiac intensive care units. Methods This historical cohort study included consecutive adults admitted to Mayo Clinic cardiac intensive care unit from 2007 to 2018 with an admission AIECG. The AIECG assigned the LVDD grade (0–3). Medial mitral E/e' ratio >15 on transthoracic echocardiogram (TTE) defined elevated filling pressures. In‐hospital and 1‐year mortality was evaluated, before and after multivariable adjustment. Results We included 11 868 patients (median age 69.5 years, 37.7% female); 48% had heart failure and 44% had acute coronary syndromes. AIECG LVDD grade was 0 (normal), 33%; 1, 7%; 2, 39%; and 3, 21%. In‐hospital and 1‐year mortality increased in each higher AIECG LVDD grade. After adjustment, each higher AIECG LVDD grade was associated with higher in‐hospital (adjusted odds ratio [OR], 1.22 [95% CI, 1.13–1.32]) and 1‐year mortality (adjusted hazard ratio [HR], 1.23 [95% CI, 1.19–1.29]); this persisted after adjustment for TTE measurements. Patients with grade 2 or 3 LVDD by AIECG and medial mitral E/e' ratio >15 by TTE had the highest in‐hospital (adjusted OR, 2.54 [95% CI, 1.69–3.88]) and 1‐year (adjusted HR, 2.03 [95% CI, 1.65–2.48]) mortality, whereas patients meeting either of these criteria had similar, elevated mortality. Conclusions The AIECG LVDD grade was strongly associated with in‐hospital and 1‐year mortality in patients in cardiac intensive care units, even after adjusting for clinical variables and TTE measurements. Patients with concordant AIECG and TTE for elevated filling pressures were at highest risk.

Migraine with aura(MwA) is associated with an increased risk of stroke and adverse vascular outcomes compared to those with migraine without aura (MwoA). AI-ECG prediction models developed at our institution can evaluate the probability of atrial fibrillation (AF) and estimate a patient’s age based on a normal sinus rhythm (NSR) ECG. Delta age, AI-ECG estimated age minus chronological age, indicates endothelial dysfunction and is associated with cardiovascular mortality. We aim to assess how AI-ECG prediction model outputs, specifically the AF probability and delta age, are associated with adverse vascular outcomes in patients with migraine. Adult patients diagnosed with MwA and MwoA from 2000-2020 with at least one digital, standard 12-lead ECG were identified. The first ECG that showed NSR is used as the index ECG. Patients with any adverse vascular outcomes before the index ECG were excluded. Adverse vascular outcomes used as endpoints include acute ischemic stroke, acute myocardial infarction, deep vein thrombosis/pulmonary embolism, AF, and carotid artery dissection. A total of 31301 patients (13783 MwA, 17518 MwoA) were included in our analysis. The mean age at the time of the index ECG was 44.3 (14.5), and the average follow-up time was 71.6 (69.8) months. Based on the index ECG, the mean AF probability was significantly higher in MwA compared to MwoA (2.39 vs 2.06, p< 0.001), while the delta age was lower in MwA compared to MwoA (3.7 vs 4.2, p <.001). The prevalences of all vascular outcomes are summarized in Table 1. Multivariate Cox regression models showed that a higher AF prediction model output (every 10% increase), as well as a higher delta age (every 10-year increase), are associated with an increased risk of composite vascular outcomes (HR1.20, 95%CI 1.17-1.23, p<.001, and HR1.19, 95%CI 1.14-1.23, p < .001) [Table 2]. The Kaplan-Meier curve of adverse vascular outcome-free survival by AF prediction model output, using 1% as the cutoff (HR 1.49, 95% CI 1.41, 1.57, p<.001), and by delta age, using 2-year as the cutoff (HR 1.14, 95% CI 1.08, 1.21, p <. 001) are presented in Figure 1. Having aura, older age, male, coronary artery disease, congestive heart failure, diabetes, hypertension, and tobacco use were also associated with a higher risk of adverse vascular outcomes. Our results demonstrated the potential of using AI-ECG AF prediction model output and delta age to identify migraine patients at risk for adverse vascular outcomes.

Abstract Background Moderate-severe mitral annulus calcification (MAC) and left ventricular (LV) diastolic dysfunction are both linked to increased risks of heart failure and mortality. Assessing LV diastolic function (LVDF) in moderate-severe-MAC by echocardiography is frequently challenging and unreliable. We recently validated an AI-ECG model for LVDF. We aimed to determine if this tool can predict long-term mortality in patients with moderate-severe-MAC and whether it can help establish MAC-specific echocardiographic LVDF parameter cutoffs. Methods This retrospective study included all patients from the AI-ECG LVDF study test cohort who underwent comprehensive transthoracic echocardiography confirming moderate-severe-MAC and ECG within fourteen days of each other at Mayo Clinic between 09/2001 and 06/2022. AI-ECG LVDF was determined based on the index ECG. Patients were categorized based on AI-ECG into groups representing normal/grade-1 LVDF, grade-2 LVDF, or grade-3 LVDG (DF-1, DF-2, and DF-3, respectively). Results Of 2,506 patients with moderate-severe-MAC [mean age 77, 64.1% females], 709 (28.3%), 1,510 (60.3%), and 287 (11.5%) were classified as DF-1, DF-2, and DF-3, respectively. Worse LVDF grade was associated with older age, male sex, lower LV ejection fraction, and higher rates of noncardiovascular and cardiovascular comorbidities. Over a median follow-up of 2.8 years, 1,059 (42.3%) patients died. In multivariable survival analysis, DF-2 [adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) 1.43, 95% confidence interval (95%CI) 1.21-1.68] and DF-3 (aHR 1.54, 95%CI 1.22-1.93) were independently associated with a higher risk of death (figure). Findings were also consistent after adjusting to mitral inflow gradients. When comparing LVDF echocardiographic parameters in controls without MAC matched by age, sex, left ventricular ejection fraction, and AI-ECG DF grade, significant differences were observed. Patients with moderate to severe MAC generally exhibited lower e' velocities, higher TR velocities, elevated E/e' ratios, and increased LAVi. Interestingly, the E/A ratio between MAC patients and their matched controls across AI-ECG LVDF grades remained consistent. Conclusion AI-ECG LVDF predicts mortality risk in patients with moderate-severe-MAC, regardless of mitral inflow gradients. Utilizing AI-ECG LVDF might aid in the risk stratification of patients with significant MAC.

AbstractBackgroundThere is increasing need for noninvasive biomarkers of Alzheimer’s Disease (AD) neuropathologic change for early detection and intervention through risk‐factor modification and disease‐modifying therapies. One such biomarker is the prediction of chronological age from routine clinical tests such as an electrocardiogram (EKG) to discriminate between observed biological age from chronological age for healthy aging. Deviation of true age from predicted age has been associated with heart failure, hypertension, and coronary heart disease. However, the association between EKG‐based age and underlying neuropathology has not been studied.MethodWe used a cohort of 336 participants from the Mayo Clinic Study of Aging, a population‐based prospective study of residents in Olmsted County, Minnesota, with antemortem EKG and post‐mortem brain autopsy (Table 1 & 2). Age was predicted from EKG using a validated convolutional neural network algorithm. We used ordinal logistic regression to identify associations between lower neuropathologic scores of AD (Thal phase, neuritic plaque score, Braak stage, and overall AD neuropathologic change) and the Age‐Gap, defined as EKG‐predicted age minus chronological age. Results were controlled for true age, sex, and APOE e4 carrier status. Neuropathologic scales were grouped into none, low, intermediate, and high categories. Observations were weighted by the inverse of years between last EKG and time of death to account for the time difference between acquisition of EKG and autopsy.ResultWe found that an increasing Age‐Gap (i.e. older predicted age) was inversely associated with lower overall AD neuropathologic change (OR 0.93 [0.89, 0.97], p = 0.002). Investigation of the components of AD neuropathologic change showed that an increasing Age‐Gap was also inversely associated with lower amyloid metrics such as Thal phase (OR 0.85 [0.80, 0.89], p < 0.001) and neuritic plaque scores (OR 0.91 [0.87, 0.96], p < 0.001), but not tau metrics like Braak staging (OR 1.05 [1.00, 1.10], p = 0.05).ConclusionIn this work, we show that older predicted age on EKG, a noninvasive biomarker associated with vascular and biological aging, is associated with higher amyloid burden and neuropathologic change of AD.

Abstract Background and Aims Artificial intelligence (AI) algorithms in 12-lead electrocardiogram (ECG) provides promising age prediction methods. This study investigated whether the discrepancy between ECG-derived AI-predicted age (AI-ECG age) and chronological age, termed electrocardiographic aging (ECG aging), is associated with atrial fibrillation (AF) risk. Methods An AI-ECG age prediction model was developed using a large-scale dataset (1 533 042 ECGs from 689 639 participants) and validated with six independent and multi-national datasets (737 133 ECGs from 330 794 participants). The AI-ECG age gap was calculated across two South Korean cohorts [mean (standard deviation) follow-up: 4.1 (4.3) years for 111 483 participants and 6.1 (3.8) years for 37 517 participants], one UK cohort [3.0 (1.6) years; 40 973 participants], and one US cohort [12.9 (8.6) years; 90 639 participants]. Participants were classified into two groups: normal group (age gap &lt; 7 years) and ECG-aged group (age gap ≥ 7 years). The predictive capability of ECG aging for new- and early-onset AF risk was assessed. Results The mean AI-ECG ages were 51.9 (16.2), 47.4 (12.5), 68.4 (7.8), and 56.7 (14.6) years with age gaps of .0 (6.8), −.1 (6.0), 4.7 (8.7), and −1.4 (8.9) years in the two South Korean, UK, and US cohorts, respectively. In the ECG-aged group, increased risks of new-onset AF were observed with hazard ratios (95% confidence intervals) of 2.50 (2.24–2.78), 1.89 (1.46–2.43), 1.90 (1.55–2.33), and 1.76 (1.67–1.86) in the two South Korean, UK, and US cohorts, respectively. For early-onset AF, odds ratios were 2.89 (2.47–3.37), 1.94 (1.39–2.70), 1.58 (1.06–2.35), and 1.79 (1.62–1.97) in these cohorts compared with the normal group. Conclusions The AI-derived ECG aging was associated with the risk of new- and early-onset AF, suggesting its potential utility to identify individuals for AF prevention across diverse populations.

Background: We previously developed deep-learning algorithms that identify coronary artery disease (CAD) risk based on (i) coronary artery calcium (CAC), (ii) obstructive CAD by angiography, and (iii) left ventricular akinesis in ≥1 segment by echocardiogram, using a 12-lead electrocardiogram (CAD ECG-AI). We tested the hypothesis that those with increased probability of CAD by CAD ECG-AI algorithms will have an increased risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) events and would refine the AHA Predicting Risk of Cardiovascular Disease Events (PREVENT TM ) equations’ predictive capabilities. Methods: We assessed a group of consecutive patients who sought primary care in Olmsted County, MN, between 1997 and 2003. Passive follow-up was conducted using the Rochester Epidemiology Project's record linkage system. Patients included met the same criteria of the original PREVENT TM equations. The probability output of each CAD ECG-AI algorithm was used to predict ASCVD (fatal and non-fatal myocardial infarction and ischemic stroke) and ASCVD-Plus [further including percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI), coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG), and all-cause mortality]. Events were validated in duplicate. Cox proportional hazard models adjusted for age, sex, and risk factors while modeling each CAD ECG-AI algorithm as an individual and additive predictor (see footnote). PREVENT TM risk categories stratified analysis to evaluate the effect of the CAD ECG-AI models on predicted ASCVD risk. Results: We included 21,193 patients, with mean ± SD age 51.6 ± 12.0, 54% women and 95% white. After 14.2±12.4 years follow-up, 1,351 (6.4%) developed ASCVD, and 2,808 (13.2%) had ASCVD-Plus. The risk of ASCVD and ASCVD-Plus increased with positivity for the CAD ECG-AI algorithms after adjustments for age, sex, and PREVENT TM equations factors, all p for trend <0.001 (data not shown). In additive analyses, the risk of ASCVD and ASCVD-Plus increased with increased CAD ECG-AI factors, all p for trend <0.001 ( Fig. A-B ). Furthermore, the CAD ECG-AI algorithm enhanced the predictive capabilities of PREVENT TM equations across most risk subgroups ( Fig. C-E ). Conclusions: The deep-learning CAD ECG-AI algorithms displayed an independent and additive association with long-term ASCVD and ASCVD-Plus events in the community and improved the PREVENT TM predicted ASCVD risk. The CAD ECG-AI algorithms could help identify individuals at risk in primary prevention of cardiovascular events.

Background: Artificial intelligence (AI) can be used to predict a person’s age from the electrocardiogram (ECG) (AI-ECG age) and has been proposed as a measurement of biological age. The difference between AI-ECG age and chronological age (defined as delta-age) is an independent predictor of mortality in the general population. This study assessed the relationship between AI ECG estimated age and mortality among adults living with congenital heart disease (CHD). Methods: A previously validated neural network to estimate AI-ECG age was used to analyze standard digital 12-lead ECGs in a cohort of subjects aged >18 years seen in the adult CHD (ACHD) clinic between 1992 to 2023. A single ECG, collected during the year of the first visit to the ACHD clinic was analyzed to compute the delta-age.. A positive delta-age indicates an AI ECG estimated age higher than the subject’s chronological age. The relationship between the delta-age and mortality was evaluated using Cox proportional hazard models adjusting for influential clinical factors including chronologic age, sex, ACHD severity, NYHA class and history of arrhythmia. Results: Of 5,780 subjects tested (50% females), the mean chronological age was 39.1 ± 15.0 years. AI ECG estimated age was 52.3 ± 16.6 years. Complexity of CHD was classified as mild, moderate, and severe in 7.4%, 73.9% and 18.7% of patients respectively. Patients with severe CHD had the highest delta-age of 17.1 (±18.2) years followed by moderate 12.7 (±13.6) y and simple 7.7 (±11.5) y. Patients with single ventricle had the highest deviation in AI estimated age [median delta-age 21.0 (IQR 28.6) y] followed by those with a systemic right ventricle [median delta-age of 16.3 (IQR 29.3) y]. During a median follow-up of 6.4 y (25th – 75th centile 1.58 – 13.7 y), mortality occurred in 839 (14.5%) patients. After adjusting for chronological age, CHD severity, and other clinical variables, delta-age gap was associated with increased mortality risk (HR 1.06 (1.03 – 1.09) per 5-year increment in delta-age, p<0.005), Table 1. Conclusion: The difference between AI ECG and chronological age is an independent predictor of all-cause mortality in ACHD patients.

Background: Our team recently developed an Artificial Intelligence model that enables the identification of increased left ventricular filling pressures using a single-lead electrocardiogram (AI-ECG) with excellent performance (AUC 0.91). However, its ability to predict incident heart failure (HF) in the community is yet to be evaluated. Hypothesis: We tested the hypothesis that the output from the AI-ECG will predict the long-term incidence of heart failure (HF) and HF with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF), and would refine the HF predictive capabilities of the AHA Predicting Risk of Cardiovascular Disease EVENTs (PREVENT TM ) Equations. Methods: Leveraging the resources of the Rochester Epidemiology Project (REP) we analyzed data from patients who sought primary care in Olmsted County, MN, between 1997-2003 with passive follow-up until April 2024. We included those with a digital ECG at baseline and excluded those who were part of the original algorithm development or history of heart failure. The diagnosis of heart failure was ascertained by using ICD codes (ICD9-428,ICD10-I.50) and a word search for the terms related to heart failure. HFpEF was ascertained using the Ejection Fraction (EF) data closest to the heart failure diagnosis date, using EF more than 40% as the criterion. We tested the association between AI-ECG predicted probabilities and new-onset HF and HFpEF using Cox proportional hazard models. These models were also adjusted for cardiovascular risk factors and were stratified to evaluate the effect of the AI-ECG output on PREVENT TM -predicted HF at 10 years. Results: We included 20,276 subjects, mean age 55±14.03, 52% women, 92% non-Hispanic white. After 18.2±8.5 years of follow-up, 4,008 (19.76%) were diagnosed with HF and 3,812 (18.8%) HFpEF. Risks of HF and HFpEF significantly increased in patients with increased left ventricular filling pressures by AI-ECG, independent of risk factors, all p for trend <0.001, see Fig A-B , respectively. AI-ECG enhanced the prediction capabilities of the PREVENT TM score across all risk groups, see Fig-C. Conclusions: AI-ECG-Derived increased left ventricular filling pressure is associated with new-onset HF and HFpEF in the community and was associated with incidental heart failure at any PREVENT TM risk category. Those results suggest a potential role of AI ECG in predicting heart failure.

Background: AI-ECG is a cost-effective tool for left ventricular dysfunction (LVD) screening. However, its cost-effectiveness for other forms of structural heart disease (SHD) is unknown. While AI-ECG is inexpensive, a drawback is low positive predictive value (PPV), which leads to high costs from unnecessary follow-up tests. Therefore, strategies to improve the yield of AI-ECG-based screening are needed. Aim: To evaluate the cost savings of a stepwise approach to SHD screening with AI-ECG followed by POCUS compared to AI-ECG alone. Methods: 286 adult outpatients undergoing AI-ECG were selected at random. Participants received same-day POCUS and had a recent TTE (our gold standard for SHD). We evaluated four SHDs: aortic stenosis (AS), cardiac amyloidosis (CA), HCM, and LVD. The costs of AI-ECG ($75) and TTE ($1,305) were obtained from Healthcare Bluebook. The cost of POCUS ($100) was estimated independently. Cost savings were analyzed for simultaneous screening for all forms of SHD and screening for individual SHDs. Results: AI-ECG identified potential SHD in 125 patients, but only 39 were true positives by TTE (31% PPV). In AI-ECG positive patients, POCUS demonstrated findings of SHD in 52/125. Compared to TTE, this stepwise approach yielded 32 true positives and 20 false positives (62% PPV). The cost per patient diagnosed with SHD was $4,733 with AI-ECG alone but decreased to $3,182 with stepwise screening (33% cost savings). Screening for individual SHDs resulted in cost reduction from $18,724 to $6,315 (66% savings) for AS, $21,023 to $12,230 (42% savings) for CA, $9,883 to $6,175 (38% savings) for HCM, and $4,019 to $3,582 (11% savings) for LVD. Conclusions: Stepwise screening for SHD with AI-ECG followed by POCUS significantly reduces costs compared to AI-ECG alone. We also suggest a model for parallel screening for multiple SHDs, which is likely more cost-effective than screening for individual SHDs.