Goldberg, Richard M.

Abstract Purpose: The categorical definition of response assessed via the Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors has documented limitations. We sought to identify alternative metrics for tumor response that improve prediction of overall survival. Experimental Design: Individual patient data from three North Central Cancer Treatment Group trials (N0026, n = 117; N9741, n = 1,109; and N9841, n = 332) were used. Continuous metrics of tumor size based on longitudinal tumor measurements were considered in addition to a trichotomized response [TriTR: response (complete or partial) vs. stable disease vs. progression). Cox proportional hazards models, adjusted for treatment arm and baseline tumor burden, were used to assess the impact of the metrics on subsequent overall survival, using a landmark analysis approach at 12, 16, and 24 weeks postbaseline. Model discrimination was evaluated by the concordance (c) index. Results: The overall best response rates for the three trials were 26%, 45%, and 25%, respectively. Although nearly all metrics were statistically significantly associated with overall survival at the different landmark time points, the concordance indices (c-index) for the traditional response metrics ranged from 0.59 to 0.65; for the continuous metrics from 0.60 to 0.66; and for the TriTR metrics from 0.64 to 0.69. The c-indices for TriTR at 12 weeks were comparable with those at 16 and 24 weeks. Conclusions: Continuous tumor measurement–based metrics provided no predictive improvement over traditional response–based metrics or TriTR; TriTR had better predictive ability than best TriTR or confirmed response. If confirmed, TriTR represents a promising endpoint for future phase II trials. Clin Cancer Res; 17(20); 6592–9. ©2011 AACR.

Abstract Systemic therapy has led to a median survival time for patients with advanced colorectal cancer (CRC) almost fourfold longer than that expected with best supportive care, an outcome achieved through combining chemotherapeutic and targeted biologic agents. Although the latter can include anti–epidermal growth factor receptor antibodies, such as cetuximab and panitumumab, we now have strong evidence that patients whose tumors harbor mutated KRAS will not benefit from this class of agent. Acceptance of the reliability and importance of the KRAS data took several years to evolve, however, for a variety of reasons. The timeline from the presentation and publication of small, retrospective phase II studies to widespread acceptance of the KRAS predictive value and changes in behavior—specifically, modifications of ongoing national trials in advanced/metastatic CRC, changes in national guidelines and practice patterns, and adjustments to the labeled indications for the monoclonal antibodies—was lengthy. In this commentary, we discuss whether or not the process of data disclosure regarding KRAS status and treatment of advanced CRC patients was effective in permitting timely decisions regarding ongoing publicly funded clinical trials and whether or not such decisions were rational and ethical. The overall goals are to highlight lessons learned regarding early disclosure of clinical trial results, as well as vetting and adoption of new scientific data, and to propose modifications for handling similar situations in the future.

PurposeColorectal cancer predominantly occurs in the elderly, but approximately 5% of patients are 50 years old or younger. We sought to determine whether young age is prognostic, or whether it influences efficacy/toxicity of chemotherapy, in patients with advanced disease.MethodsWe analyzed individual data on 6,284 patients from nine phase III trials of advanced colorectal cancer (aCRC) that used fluorouracil-based single-agent and combination chemotherapy. End points included progression-free survival (PFS), overall survival (OS), response rate (RR), and grade 3 or worse adverse events. Stratified Cox and adjusted logistic-regression models were used to test for age effects and age-treatment interactions.ResultsA total of 793 patients (13%) were younger than 50 years old; 188 of these patients (3% of total patients) were younger than 40 years old. Grade 3 or worse nausea (10% v 7%; P = .01) was more common, and severe diarrhea (11% v 14%; P = .001) and neutropenia (23% v 26%; P < .001) were less common in young (younger than 50 years) than in older (older than 50 years) patients. Age was prognostic for PFS, with poorer outcomes occurring in those younger than 50 years (median, 6.0 v 7.5 months; hazard ratio, 1.10; P = .02), but it did not affect RR or OS. In the subset of monotherapy versus combination chemotherapy trials, the relative benefits of multiagent chemotherapy were similar for young and older patients. Results were comparable when utilizing an age cut point of 40 years.ConclusionYoung age is modestly associated with poorer PFS but not OS or RR in treated patients with aCRC, and young patients have more nausea but less diarrhea and neutropenia with chemotherapy in general. Young versus older patients derive the same benefits from combination chemotherapy. Absent results of a clinical trial, standard combination chemotherapy approaches are appropriate for young patients with aCRC.

Abstract Learning Objectives After completing this course, the reader will be able to: Explain the difference in survival prediction between response criteria (WHO) when used as a two-level variable (CR/PR vs. other) and as a three-level variable (CR/PR vs. SD vs. PD).Describe the limited benefit of using actual tumor measurements over traditional criteria (as a three-level variable) in predicting survival in colorectal cancer. This article is available for continuing medical education credit at CME.TheOncologist.com Purpose. We explored the prognostic value of actual tumor measurements (TM) versus World Health Organization (WHO) criteria as three-level (responder, stable, and progression) and two-level (responder and non-responder) variables at 12 and 24 weeks as predictors of survival in Intergroup Trial N9741, a phase III trial in metastatic colorectal cancer (CRC). Methods. All patients with measurable disease (N = 1,188) were included. The percentage changes in TM from baseline to 12 and 24 weeks were calculated. The prognostic values of TM versus WHO criteria (as three- and two-level variables) at 12 and 24 weeks were compared, using Cox models for overall survival (OS) in a landmark analysis, adjusting for baseline tumor size, performance status, and treatment arm. Results. Tumor status at 12 weeks by WHO criteria (three or two levels) or actual TM were all strongly associated with OS. Actual TM provided no meaningful additional benefit compared with the three-level WHO criteria. Tumor status at 24 weeks was also strongly associated with survival, but added no additional prognostic value compared with the 12-week assessment. At 12 weeks, actual TM improved prognostic characterization of patients with WHO status of response, but provided no additional value in patients with stable disease or progression. Conclusions. In N9741, the use of actual TM, or following tumor status beyond 12 weeks, did not improve survival prediction compared with a single three-level response assessment at 12 weeks, suggesting that 12-week tumor status could be an appropriate phase II trial endpoint in metastatic CRC.

Purpose Previous studies have suggested that higher plasma 25-hydroxyvitamin D3 [25(OH)D] levels are associated with decreased colorectal cancer risk and improved survival, but the prevalence of vitamin D deficiency in advanced colorectal cancer and its influence on outcomes are unknown. Patients and Methods We prospectively measured plasma 25(OH)D levels in 515 patients with stage IV colorectal cancer participating in a randomized trial of chemotherapy. Vitamin D deficiency was defined as 25(OH)D lower than 20 ng/mL, insufficiency as 20 to 29 ng/mL, and sufficiency as ≥ 30 ng/mL. We examined the association between baseline 25(OH)D level and selected patient characteristics. Cox proportional hazards models were used to calculate hazard ratios (HR) for death, disease progression, and tumor response, adjusted for prognostic factors. Results Among 515 eligible patients, 50% of the study population was vitamin D deficient, and 82% were vitamin D insufficient. Plasma 25(OH)D levels were lower in black patients compared to white patients and patients of other race (median, 10.7 v 21.1 v 19.3 ng/mL, respectively; P < .001), and females compared to males (median, 18.3 v 21.7 ng/mL, respectively; P = .0005). Baseline plasma 25(OH)D levels were not associated with patient outcome, although given the distribution of plasma levels in this cohort, statistical power for survival analyses were limited. Conclusion Vitamin D deficiency is highly prevalent among patients with stage IV colorectal cancer receiving first-line chemotherapy, particularly in black and female patients.

Purpose With three available chemotherapy drugs for advanced colorectal cancer (CRC), response rate (RR) and survival outcomes have improved with associated morbidity, accentuating the need for tools to select optimal individualized treatment. Pharmacogenetics identifies the likelihood of adverse events or response based on variants in genes involved in drug transport, metabolism, and cellular targets. Patients and Methods Germline DNA was extracted from 520 patients on the North American Gastrointestinal Intergroup N9741 study. Three study arms were evaluated: IFL (fluorouracil [FU] + irinotecan [IRN]), FOLFOX (FU + oxaliplatin), and IROX (IRN + oxaliplatin). Information on adverse events, response, and disease-free survival was available. Thirty-four variants in 15 candidate genes for analysis based on previous associations with adverse events or outcome were assessed. Genotyping was performed using pyrosequencing. Results All variants were polymorphic. The homozygous UGT1A1*28 allele observed in 9% of patients was associated with risk of grade 4 neutropenia in patients on IROX (55% v 15%; P = .002). Deletion in GSTM1 was associated with grade 4 neutropenia after FOLFOX (28% v 16%; P = .02). Patients with a homozygous variant genotype for GSTP1 were more likely to discontinue FOLFOX because of neurotoxicity (24% v 10%; P = .01). The presence of a CYP3A5 variant was significantly associated with RR on IFL (29% v 60%; P = .0074). Most previously published genotype-toxicity or -efficacy relationships were not validated in this study. Conclusion This study provides a platform to evaluate pharmacogenetic predictors of response or severe adverse events in advanced CRC. Pharmacogenetic studies can be conducted in multicenter trials, and our findings demonstrate that with continued research, clinical application is practical.

Purpose To improve the understanding of the appropriate design of phase II oncology clinical trials, we compared error rates in single-arm, historically controlled and randomized, concurrently controlled designs. Patients and Methods We simulated error rates of both designs separately from individual patient data from a large colorectal cancer phase III trials and statistical models, which take into account random and systematic variation in historical control data. Results In single-arm trials, false-positive error rates (type I error) were 2 to 4 times those projected when modest drift or patient selection effects (eg, 5% absolute shift in control response rate) were included in statistical models. The power of single-arm designs simulated using actual data was highly sensitive to the fraction of patients from treatment centers with high versus low patient volumes, the presence of patient selection effects or temporal drift in response rates, and random small-sample variation in historical controls. Increasing sample size did not correct the over optimism of single-arm studies. Randomized two-arm design conformed to planned error rates. Conclusion Variability in historical control success rates, outcome drifts in patient populations over time, and/or patient selection effects can result in inaccurate false-positive and false-negative error rates in single-arm designs, but leave performance of the randomized two-arm design largely unaffected at the cost of 2 to 4 times the sample size compared with single-arm designs. Given a large enough patient pool, the randomized phase II designs provide a more accurate decision for screening agents before phase III testing.

Purpose We previously validated disease-free survival (DFS) as a surrogate for overall survival (OS) in fluorouracil-based adjuvant colon cancer clinical trials. New therapies have extended survival after recurrence from 1 to approximately 2 years. We examined the possible impact of this improvement on the DFS/OS association. Methods The Adjuvant Colon Cancer Endpoints (ACCENT) data set of 20,898 patients was analyzed. In an exploratory fashion, time from recurrence to death in patients experiencing recurrence was extended using several algorithms, and the association of DFS after 3 years of median follow-up and OS after varying lengths of follow-up (median of 5, 6, and 7 years) was assessed. Results Seven thousand four hundred two patients (35%) experienced recurrence. Median time from recurrence to death was 24 months in the hypothetical data sets. When times from recurrence to death were doubled, the association between treatment effects on DFS and 5-year OS was modest (R2 = 0.51 for both 2- and 3-year DFS) but remained strong for DFS and 6-year OS (R2 = 0.67 for both 2- and 3-year DFS) and 7-year OS (R2 = 0.70 for both 2- and 3-year DFS). The reduced DFS/OS association with extended survival after recurrence was greater in stage II than stage III patients. Multiple simulations provided consistent findings. Conclusion Extended survival after recurrence reduces the association between treatment effects on 3-year DFS and 5-year OS, particularly in stage II patients; longer follow-up strengthens the association. In modern adjuvant trials, 6 or 7 years may be required to demonstrate OS improvements, further supporting DFS as the preferred primary end point for future adjuvant colon cancer clinical trials.

Purpose Racial disparities in colorectal cancer (CRC) survival are documented, but there are few data on comparative response to chemotherapy. A subgroup analysis of a multisite National Cancer Institute–sponsored trial (N9741) was performed comparing outcomes of black and white patients with metastatic CRC receiving uniform treatment. Patients and Methods Adverse events (AEs), response rate (RR), time to progression (TTP), overall survival (OS), and dose-intensity were examined as a function of self-reported race in 1,412 patients treated with irinotecan/fluorouracil, fluorouracil/oxaliplatin, or irinotecan/oxaliplatin. Pharmacogenetic analysis was performed on 486 patients with blood available for germline DNA analysis. Results OS was 1.5 months shorter and TTP was 0.6 months shorter in black than white patients (OS: hazard ratio [HR] = 1.13; 95% CI, 0.90 to 1.42; TTP: HR = 0.91, 95% CI, 0.73 to 1.13); neither difference was statistically significant. RR was significantly higher in whites (41%) than blacks (28%; P = .008). Grade 3 or greater AEs were also higher in whites (48%) than blacks (34%; P = .004). These relationships were maintained in multivariate models adjusting for arm, age, sex, and performance status. There was no difference in dose-intensity of delivered therapy. Significant racial differences in prevalence of pharmacogenetic variants were observed, although small sample size precluded investigating the relationship between treatment, race, and genotype. Conclusion OS and TTP are similar in black and white patients treated per protocol with standardized therapy for metastatic CRC. However, RR and AEs vary considerably by race. The marked racial differences in relevant pharmacogenetics, a potential explanation for differing RR and AEs, are worthy of future study.

Purpose In February 2000, the criteria for measuring tumor shrinkage as an indicator of antitumor activity were redefined by the Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors (RECIST). This resulted in simplifying bidimensional to unidimensional measurement of lesions. Under RECIST, all lesions, up to 10, must be measured. Scanning and measuring multiple lesions is costly, time-consuming, and a disincentive to participation in clinical trials. We investigated whether fewer than 10 lesions can be measured without compromising the accuracy of assessing a regimen's activity. Patients and Methods Thirty-two North Central Cancer Treatment Group trials including 2,374 patients were analyzed. Twelve studies were conducted before RECIST; 20 were conducted post-RECIST. Agreement between objective status by cycle, confirmed response, overall response rate, and time to progression (TTP) was evaluated based on all 10 versus the largest one through five lesions. Results The median number of lesions reported on RECIST trials did not differ from pre-RECIST trials (median = 2.0). One lesion at baseline was reported in 49% of patients, two lesions in 28% of patients, three lesions in 12% of patients, four lesions in 6% of patients, and five lesions in 5% of patients in post-RECIST trials. Utilizing the largest two lesions produced excellent concordance with that using all lesions for all end points. In no trial did the overall response rate differ by more than 3% when two versus all lesions were considered. Evaluating more than two lesions did not significantly improve agreement. Conclusion Based on these trials, the assessment of more than two lesions did not alter the conclusions regarding a treatment's efficacy as judged by response rate or TTP.