Allegra, Carmen J.

PurposeAlthough the importance of obesity in colon cancer risk and outcome is recognized, the association of body mass index (BMI) with DNA mismatch repair (MMR) status is unknown.Patients and MethodsBMI (kg/m2) was determined in patients with TNM stage II or III colon carcinomas (n = 2,693) who participated in randomized trials of adjuvant chemotherapy. The association of BMI with MMR status and survival was analyzed by logistic regression and Cox models, respectively.ResultsOverall, 427 (16%) tumors showed deficient MMR (dMMR), and 630 patients (23%) were obese (BMI ≥ 30 kg/m2). Obesity was significantly associated with younger age (P = .021), distal tumor site (P = .012), and a lower rate of dMMR tumors (10% v 17%; P < .001) compared with normal weight. Obesity remained associated with lower rates of dMMR (odds ratio, 0.57; 95% CI, 0.41 to 0.79; P < .001) after adjusting for tumor site, stage, sex, and age. Among obese patients, rates of dMMR were lower in men compared with women (8% v 13%; P = .041). Obesity was associated with higher recurrence rates (P = .0034) and independently predicted worse disease-free survival (DFS; hazard ratio [HR], 1.37; 95% CI, 1.14 to 1.64; P = .0010) and overall survival (OS), whereas dMMR predicted better DFS (HR, 0.59; 95% CI, 0.47 to 0.74; P < .001) and OS. The favorable prognosis of dMMR was maintained in obese patients.ConclusionColon cancers from obese patients are less likely to show dMMR, suggesting obesity-related differences in the pathogenesis of colon cancer. Although obesity was independently associated with adverse outcome, the favorable prognostic impact of dMMR was maintained among obese patients.

PurposeProgression-free survival (PFS) is not an optimal end point to evaluate therapeutic strategies in advanced colorectal cancer (ACRC). Therefore, composite end points have been proposed to evaluate a chemotherapy strategy when sequential treatments are available: duration of disease control (DDC) and time to failure of strategy (TFS). The goal of this study was to evaluate these alternative end points and their potential surrogacy for overall survival (OS).MethodsWe pooled individual patient data from three randomized trials evaluating chemotherapy strategy, which accrued 1,042 patients with previously untreated ACRC. In these trials, first-line treatment was either oxaliplatin- or irinotecan-based chemotherapy. Compared with TFS, DDC included neither time interval between progression and next sequence of treatment nor time to progression if the best result of the next sequence of treatment was progression.ResultsThere was good correlation between DDC and OS (correlation of median: r, 0.62; correlation of hazard ratio [HR]: adjusted copula R2, 0.72) and between TFS and OS (correlation of median: r, 0.59; correlation of HR: adjusted copula R2, 0.67). There was no correlation between PFS and OS (correlation of median: r, 0.45; correlation of HR: adjusted copula R2, 0.47).ConclusionDDC and TFS roughly achieved the same results. Both are acceptable new end points to evaluate a therapeutic strategy in ACRC. Although TFS achieved a pragmatic evaluation of a multiline strategy, DDC captured the effect of a specific sequence in a therapeutic strategy.

Purpose The role of high-degree microsatellite instability (MSI-H) as a marker to predict benefit from adjuvant chemotherapy remains unclear. Patients and Methods To help define its impact, we conducted an analysis of National Surgical Adjuvant Breast and Bowel Project (NSABP) patients who were randomly assigned to a surgery-alone group (untreated cohort) and patients assigned to an adjuvant fluorouracil (FU) -treated group (treated cohort). MSI-H and other potential markers were assessed (TGF-BRII, p53, thymidylate synthase, and Ki67). Results In all, 98 (18.1%) of 542 patients exhibited MSI-H, and there was a strong inverse relationship between MSI-H and mutant p53 status (P < .001). The prognostic analyses showed increased recurrence-free survival (RFS) for MSI-H patients versus MSS/MSI-L patients (P = .10), but showed no difference in overall survival (OS; P = .67). There was a potential interaction between MSI-H and mutant p53 in terms of improved RFS (P = .03). In the predictive marker analysis, we observed no interaction between MSI status and treatment for either RFS (P = .68) or OS (P = .62). Hazard ratios (HR) for RFS for MSI-H versus MSS/MSI-L patients were 0.77 (95% CI, 0.40 to 1.48) in the untreated-patients group and 0.60 (95% CI, 0.30 to 1.19) in the treated-patients group. HRs for OS were 0.82 (95% CI, 0.44 to 1.51) and 1.02 (95% CI, 0.56 to 1.85) for the respective groups. There was a trend toward improved RFS in patients with MSI-H and mutant p53. Conclusion These results do not support the use of MSI-H as a predictive marker of chemotherapy benefit.

Abstract Purpose: Colon cancer cells with high-frequency microsatellite instability (MSI-H) display resistance to 5-fluorouracil (5-FU) that can be reversed by restoring DNA mismatch repair (MMR) proficiency. Given that thymidylate synthase (TS) is inhibited by 5-FU, we studied the relationship between MSI and TS expression, and the prognostic effect of these and other markers (i.e., p53 and 17p allelic imbalance). Experimental Design: Dukes' stage B2 and C colon carcinomas (n = 320) from participants in 5-FU-based adjuvant therapy trials were analyzed for MSI and 17p allelic imbalance. Expression of MMR (hMLH1, hMSH2), TS, and p53 proteins were analyzed by immunohistochemistry. Correlations between markers and associations with overall survival were determined. Results: Of 320 cancers studied, 60 (19%) were MSI-H. TS expression variables were similar in MSI-H and microsatellite stable/low-frequency MSI (MSS/MSI-L) cancers, and unrelated to MMR proteins. MSI-H tumors had lower stage (P = 0.0007), fewer metastatic lymph nodes (P = 0.004), and improved overall survival (P = 0.01). Loss of MMR proteins was also associated with better overall survival (P = 0.006). None of the TS variables were prognostic. Histologic grade (P = 0.0008) and nodal status (P = 0.0002) were associated with overall survival, in contrast to 17p allelic imbalance or p53. Only MSI status or loss of MMR proteins, histologic grade, and tumor stage were independent markers for overall survival. Conclusions: MSI-H tumors show earlier stage at presentation and better stage-adjusted survival rates. MSI status and TS expression were unrelated and TS was not prognostic, suggesting that TS levels cannot explain therapeutic resistance to 5-FU reported in MSI-H colon cancers.

Current staging and risk-stratification methods in oncology, while helpful, fail to adequately predict malignancy aggressiveness and/or response to specific treatment. Increased knowledge of cancer biology is generating promising marker candidates for more accurate diagnosis, prognosis assessment, and therapeutic targeting. To apply these exciting results to maximize patient benefit, a disciplined application of well-designed clinical trials for assessing the utility of markers should be used. In this article, we first review the major issues to consider when designing a clinical trial assessing the usefulness of a predictive marker. We then present two classes of clinical trial designs: the Marker by Treatment Interaction Design and the Marker-Based Strategy Design. In the first design, we assume that the marker splits the population into groups in which the efficacy of a particular treatment will differ. This design can be viewed as a classical randomized clinical trial with upfront stratification for the marker. In the second design, after the marker status is known, each patient is randomly assigned either to have therapy determined by their marker status or to receive therapy independent of marker status. The predictive value of the marker is assessed by comparing the outcome of all patients in the marker-based arm to that of all of the patients in the non–marker-based arm. We present detailed sample size calculations for a specific clinical scenario. We discuss the advantages and disadvantages of the two trial designs and their appropriateness to specific clinical situations to assist investigators seeking to design rigorous, marker-based clinical trials.

PURPOSE: To evaluate the value of thymidylate synthase (TS), Ki-67, and p53 as prognostic markers in patients with Dukes’ B2 and C colon carcinoma. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective analysis to evaluate the prognostic value of TS, Ki-67, and p53 in 465 patients with Dukes’ B2 (220 patients) or Dukes’ C (245 patients) colon carcinoma. Patients represent a nonrandom subset obtained from five randomized phase III trials and were treated with either surgery alone (151 patients) or surgery plus fluorouracil-based chemotherapy (314 patients). All three markers were assayed using immunohistochemical techniques. RESULTS: With a minimum follow-up of 5 years, our retrospective analysis failed to demonstrate a consistent and significant association between TS, Ki-67, or p53 and either disease-free survival or overall survival. Exploratory analyses did not reveal a convincing explanation for these results that are in conflict with the published literature. Notable interactions were observed. In particular, high Ki-67 levels were associated with increased (decreased) survival in patients with low (high) TS intensity. Patients whose tumors stained positively for p53 seemed to benefit substantially from the use of adjuvant chemotherapy compared with those who were not treated (P = .05). CONCLUSION: This retrospective investigation failed to demonstrate a significant association between TS, Ki-67, or p53 staining and clinical outcome.