Aisen, Paul

AbstractWith increasing numbers of people with Alzheimer's and other dementias across the globe, many countries have developed national plans to deal with the resulting challenges. In the United States, the National Alzheimer's Project Act, signed into law in 2011, required the creation of such a plan with annual updates thereafter. Pursuant to this, the US Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) released the National Plan to Address Alzheimer's Disease in 2012, including an ambitious research goal of preventing and effectively treating Alzheimer's disease by 2025. To guide investments, activities, and the measurement of progress toward achieving this 2025 goal, in its first annual plan update (2013) HHS also incorporated into the plan a set of short, medium and long‐term milestones. HHS further committed to updating these milestones on an ongoing basis to account for progress and setbacks, and emerging opportunities and obstacles. To assist HHS as it updates these milestones, the Alzheimer's Association convened a National Plan Milestone Workgroup consisting of scientific experts representing all areas of Alzheimer's and dementia research. The workgroup evaluated each milestone and made recommendations to ensure that they collectively constitute an adequate work plan for reaching the goal of preventing and effectively treating Alzheimer's by 2025. This report presents these Workgroup recommendations.

AbstractMotivationDiseases that progress slowly are often studied by observing cohorts at different stages of disease for short periods of time. The Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) follows elders with various degrees of cognitive impairment, from normal to impaired. The study includes a rich panel of novel cognitive tests, biomarkers, and brain images collected every 6 months for as long as 6 years. The relative timing of the observations with respect to disease pathology is unknown. We propose a general semiparametric model and iterative estimation procedure to estimate simultaneously the pathological timing and long‐term growth curves. The resulting estimates of long‐term progression are fine‐tuned using cognitive trajectories derived from the long‐term “Personnes Agées Quid” study.ResultsWe demonstrate with simulations that the method can recover long‐term disease trends from short‐term observations. The method also estimates temporal ordering of individuals with respect to disease pathology, providing subject‐specific prognostic estimates of the time until onset of symptoms. When the method is applied to ADNI data, the estimated growth curves are in general agreement with prevailing theories of the Alzheimer's disease cascade. Other data sets with common outcome measures can be combined using the proposed algorithm.AvailabilitySoftware to fit the model and reproduce results with the statistical software R is available as the grace package. ADNI data can be downloaded from the Laboratory of NeuroImaging.