Bax, Jeroen J.

ABSTRACT Aims Takotsubo syndrome (TTS) is associated with a substantial rate of adverse events. We sought to design a machine learning (ML)-based model to predict the risk of in-hospital death and to perform a clustering of TTS patients to identify different risk profiles. Methods and results A ridge logistic regression-based ML model for predicting in-hospital death was developed on 3482 TTS patients from the International Takotsubo (InterTAK) Registry, randomly split in a train and an internal validation cohort (75% and 25% of the sample size, respectively) and evaluated in an external validation cohort (1037 patients). Thirty-one clinically relevant variables were included in the prediction model. Model performance represented the primary endpoint and was assessed according to area under the curve (AUC), sensitivity and specificity. As secondary endpoint, a K-medoids clustering algorithm was designed to stratify patients into phenotypic groups based on the 10 most relevant features emerging from the main model. The overall incidence of in-hospital death was 5.2%. The InterTAK-ML model showed an AUC of 0.89 (0.85–0.92), a sensitivity of 0.85 (0.78–0.95) and a specificity of 0.76 (0.74–0.79) in the internal validation cohort and an AUC of 0.82 (0.73–0.91), a sensitivity of 0.74 (0.61–0.87) and a specificity of 0.79 (0.77–0.81) in the external cohort for in-hospital death prediction. By exploiting the 10 variables showing the highest feature importance, TTS patients were clustered into six groups associated with different risks of in-hospital death (28.8% vs. 15.5% vs. 5.4% vs. 1.0.8% vs. 0.5%) which were consistent also in the external cohort. Conclusion A ML-based approach for the identification of TTS patients at risk of adverse short-term prognosis is feasible and effective. The InterTAK-ML model showed unprecedented discriminative capability for the prediction of in-hospital death.

Abstract Aims To investigate the impact of statins on plaque progression according to high-risk coronary atherosclerotic plaque (HRP) features and to identify predictive factors for rapid plaque progression in mild coronary artery disease (CAD) using serial coronary computed tomography angiography (CCTA). Methods and results We analyzed mild stenosis (25–49%) CAD, totaling 1432 lesions from 613 patients (mean age, 62.2 years, 63.9% male) and who underwent serial CCTA at a ≥2 year inter-scan interval using the Progression of AtheRosclerotic PlAque DetermIned by Computed TomoGraphic Angiography Imaging (NCT02803411) registry. The median inter-scan period was 3.5 ± 1.4 years; plaques were quantitatively assessed for annualized percent atheroma volume (PAV) and compositional plaque volume changes according to HRP features, and the rapid plaque progression was defined by the ≥90th percentile annual PAV. In mild stenotic lesions with ≥2 HRPs, statin therapy showed a 37% reduction in annual PAV (0.97 ± 2.02 vs. 1.55 ± 2.22, P = 0.038) with decreased necrotic core volume and increased dense calcium volume compared to non-statin recipient mild lesions. The key factors for rapid plaque progression were ≥2 HRPs [hazard ratio (HR), 1.89; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.02–3.49; P = 0.042], current smoking (HR, 1.69; 95% CI 1.09–2.57; P = 0.017), and diabetes (HR, 1.55; 95% CI, 1.07–2.22; P = 0.020). Conclusion In mild CAD, statin treatment reduced plaque progression, particularly in lesions with a higher number of HRP features, which was also a strong predictor of rapid plaque progression. Therefore, aggressive statin therapy might be needed even in mild CAD with higher HRPs. Clinical trial registration ClinicalTrials.gov NCT02803411

Abstract Aims Indications for surgery in patients with degenerative mitral regurgitation (DMR) are increasingly liberal in all clinical guidelines but the role of secondary outcome determinants (left atrial volume index ≥60 mL/m2, atrial fibrillation, pulmonary artery systolic pressure ≥50 mmHg and moderate to severe tricuspid regurgitation) and their impact on post-operative outcome remain disputed. Whether these secondary outcome markers are just reflective of the DMR severity or intrinsically affect survival after DMR surgery is uncertain and may have critical importance in the management of patients with DMR. To address these gaps of knowledge the present study gathered a large cohort of patients with quantified DMR, accounted for the number of secondary outcome markers and examined their independent impact on survival after surgical correction of the DMR. Methods and results The Mitral Regurgitation International DAtabase-Quantitative registry includes patients with isolated DMR from centres across North America, Europe, and the Middle East. Patient enrolment extended from January 2003 to January 2020. All patients undergoing mitral valve surgery within 1 year of registry enrolment were selected. A total of 2276 patients [65 (55–73) years, 32% male] across five centres met study eligibility criteria. Over a median follow-up of 5.6 (3.6 to 8.7) years, 278 patients (12.2%) died. In a comprehensive multivariable Cox regression model adjusted for age, EuroSCORE II, symptoms, left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF), left ventricular end-systolic diameter (LV ESD) and DMR severity, the number of secondary outcome determinants was independently associated with post-operative all-cause mortality, with adjusted hazard ratios of 1.56 [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.11–2.20, P = 0.011], 1.78 (95% CI: 1.23–2.58, P = 0.002) and 2.58 (95% CI: 1.73–3.83, P < 0.0001) for patients with one, two, and three or four secondary outcome determinants, respectively. A model incorporating the number of secondary outcome determinants demonstrated a higher C-index and was significantly more concordant with post-operative mortality than models incorporating traditional Class I indications alone [the presence of symptoms (P = 0.0003), or LVEF ≤60% (P = 0.006), or LV ESD ≥40 mm (P = 0.014)], while there was no significant difference in concordance observed compared with a model that incorporated the number of Class I indications for surgery combined (P = 0.71). Conclusion In this large cohort of patients treated surgically for DMR, the presence and number of secondary outcome determinants was independently associated with post-surgical survival and demonstrated better outcome discrimination than traditional Class I indications for surgery. Randomised controlled trials are needed to determine if patients with severe DMR who demonstrate a cardiac phenotype with an increasing number of secondary outcome determinants would benefit from earlier surgery.

Background: Mitral valve prolapse (MVP) is responsible for a considerable disease burden but is widely heterogeneous. The lack of a comprehensive prognostic instrument covering the entire MVP spectrum, encompassing the quantified consequent degenerative mitral regurgitation (DMR), hinders clinical management and therapeutic trials. Methods: The new Mitral Regurgitation International Database Quantitative (MIDA-Q) registry enrolled 8187 consecutive patients (ages 63±16 years, 47% women, follow-up 5.5±3.3 years) first diagnosed with isolated MVP, without or with DMR quantified prospectively (measuring effective regurgitant orifice [ERO] and regurgitant volume) in routine practice of 5 tertiary care centers from North America, Europe, and the Middle East. The MIDA-Q score ranges from 0 to 15 by accumulating guideline-based risk factors and DMR severity. Long-term survival under medical management was the primary outcome end point. Results: MVP was associated with DMR absent/mild (ERO <20 mm 2 ) in 50%, moderate (ERO 20–40 mm 2 ) in 25%, and severe or higher (ERO ≥40 mm 2 ) in 25%, with mean ERO 24±24 mm 2 , regurgitant volume 37±35 mL. Median MIDA-Q score was 4 with a wide distribution (10%–90% range, 0–9). MIDA-Q score was higher in patients with EuroScore II ≥1% versus <1% (median, 7 versus 3; P < 0.0001) but with wide overlap (10%–90% range, 4–11 versus 0–7) and mediocre correlation ( R 2 0.18). Five-year survival under medical management was strongly associated with MIDA-Q score, 97±1% with score 0, 95±1% with score 1 to 2, 82±1% with score 3 to 4, 67±1% with score 5 to 6, 60±1% with score 7 to 8, 44±1% with score 9 to 10, 35±1% with score 11 to 12, and 5±4% with MIDA-Q score ≥13, with hazard ratio 1.31 [1.29–1.33] per 1-point increment. Excess mortality with higher MIDA-Q scores persisted after adjustment for age, sex, and EuroScore II (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.13 [1.11–1.15] per 1-point increment). Subgroup analysis showed persistent association of MIDA-Q score with mortality in all possible subsets, in particular, with EuroScore II<1% (hazard ratio, 1.08 [1.02–1.14]) or ≥1% (hazard ratio, 1.11 [1.08–1.13]) and with no/mild DMR (hazard ratio, 1.14 [1.10–1.19]) or moderate/severe DMR (hazard ratio, 1.13 [1.10–1.16], all per 1-point increment with P <0.0001). Nested-model and bootstrapping analyses demonstrated incremental prognostic power of MIDA-Q score (all P <0.0001). Conclusions: This large, international cohort of isolated MVP, with prospective DMR quantification in routine practice, demonstrates the wide range of risk factor accumulation and considerable heterogeneity of outcomes after MVP diagnosis. The MIDA-Q score is strongly, independently, and incrementally associated with long-term survival after MVP diagnosis, irrespective of presentation, and is therefore a crucial prognostic instrument for risk stratification, clinical trials, and management of patients diagnosed with all forms of MVP.

Abstract Adverse cardiac remodelling is the main determinant of patient prognosis in degenerative valvular heart disease (VHD). However, to give an indication for valvular intervention, current guidelines include parameters of cardiac chamber dilatation or function which are subject to variability, do not directly reflect myocardial structural changes, and, more importantly, seem to be not sensitive enough in depicting early signs of myocardial dysfunction before irreversible myocardial damage has occurred. To avoid irreversible myocardial dysfunction, novel biomarkers are advocated to help refining indications for intervention and risk stratification. Advanced echocardiographic modalities, including strain analysis, and magnetic resonance imaging have shown to be promising in providing new tools to depict the important switch from adaptive to maladaptive myocardial changes in response to severe VHD. This review, therefore, summarizes the current available evidence on the role of these new imaging biomarkers in degenerative VHD, aiming at shifting the clinical perspective from a valve-centred to a myocardium-focused approach for patient management and therapeutic decision-making.

Abstract Funding Acknowledgements Type of funding sources: None. Background Pulmonary hypertension is a frequent complication of severe degenerative mitral regurgitation (DMR) associated with major outcome implications. However, whether pulmonary hypertension is linked with worse outcome in less that severe MR is uncertain and even more unsubstantiated is the link of elevated systolic pulmonary artery pressure (sPAP) &lt; 50mmHg with clinical presentation and outcome. Purpose To assess the outcome implication of sPAP elevation, even moderate, among mitral regurgitation severity subgroups. Methods The MIDA-Quantitative (MIDA-Q) unprecedented registries included 7373 consecutive patients (age 64 ± 17 years, 45% women, follow-up 5.5 ± 3.4 years) with isolated DMR diagnosed at tertiary (European/North-American/Middle East) centers in which systolic pulmonary artery pressure (sPAP) was measured prospectively at baseline. Long-term survival overall, under medical management and post-mitral surgery was analyzed. Results Elevated pulmonary pressure (sPAP &gt;50mmHg) was observed in 1371 patients (19%, mean 63 ± 13mmHg) and moderate increase in pulmonary pressure (35&lt; sPAP &lt; 50mmHg) in 1874 patients (25%, mean 41 ± 14mmHg), with no/mild MR in 4067 (50%), moderate in 2073 (25%), and severe or above in 2047 (25%), mean ERO 0.24 ± 24cm2, RVol 37 ± 35mL and posterior leaflet prolapse in 34%. sPAP severe but also moderate both strongly and independently linked to more severe clinical presentation, with more dyspnea, more AFib, and impaired renal function (P ≤ 0.0001). &lt;SPAP&lt; &gt;By sPAP categories, 35 &lt; sPAP&lt; 50mmHg (vs. 35mmHg) was independently associated with worse outcome under medical management adjusted-HR 1.62[1.40-1/87], with considerable excess-mortality for sPAP &gt; 50mmHg (vs. &lt;35mmHg) adjusted-HR 2.54[2.17-2.96], all P &lt; 0.0001. As continuous variable, sPAP was associated with worse outcome adjusted-HR 1.25[1.21-1.29], P &lt; 0.0001 per 10mmHg-increase. Mitral valve surgery (performed in 2378 patients, 32%) improved outcome without alleviating completely higher mortality associated with sPAP &gt; 50mmHg (P &lt; 0.0001). Conclusion In this very large international cohort of patients with DMR of all range and prospective sPAP grading, higher sPAP is associated at diagnosis with more severe clinical presentation. Long term, sPAP &gt; 50mmHg but also 35-50mmHg is independently of all confounders, associated with worse mortality. Thus careful assessment and consideration for mitral surgery/transcatheter therapy is warranted even in patients with sPAP &lt;50mmHg.&lt;/SPAP&lt; &gt; Abstract Figure. Survival stratified by sPAP Categories Abstract Figure. Postop survival by sPAP Categories

Abstract Aims The current definition of post ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) left ventricular (LV) remodelling is purely structural (LV dilatation) and does not consider LV function (ejection fraction, EF), even though it is known to be a predictor of long-term post-STEMI outcome. This study aimed to reclassify LV remodelling after STEMI by integrating LV dilatation and function (LVEF) and to investigate the prognostic implications. Methods and results Data from an ongoing registry of STEMI patients who were treated with primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) were retrospectively evaluated. Four distinct remodelling subgroups were identified: (i) no LV dilatation, no LVEF impairment,(ii) no LV dilatation but LVEF impairment, (iii) LV dilatation but no LVEF impairment, and (iv) LV dilatation and LVEF impairment. The impact of functional LV remodelling on outcomes was analysed. A total of 2346 patients were studied (mean age 60 ± 11 years, 76% men). During a median follow-up of 76 (interquartile range 52 to 107) months, 282 (12%) died, while the composite of death and heart failure hospitalization occurred in 305 (13%) patients. Those with LV remodelling and LVEF impairment had a significantly lower survival rate (P &lt; 0.001) and event-free survival rate (P &lt; 0.001) compared with other functional LV remodelling groups. Conclusions Employing a functional LV post-infarct remodelling classification has the potential to improve risk stratification beyond structural LV remodelling alone. Identification of patients with the worst prognosis by using a functional LV remodelling approach may allow institution of early preventative therapies.

Abstract Background The Mitral Regurgitation International Database (MIDA) score is a validated tool for Degenerative Mitral Regurgitation (DMR) management, being able to position a given patient within a continuous spectrum of short and long term mortality. However, whether this score may be applicable and incremental in the entire span of Floppy Mitral Valves (FMV), regardless of DMR severity, remains unsubstantiated. Methods The MIDA-Quantitative (MIDA-Q) unprecedented registries include 8187 consecutive patients (age 64±17 years, 45% women, follow-up 5.5±3.4 years) with isolated degenerative mitral valve disease diagnosed at tertiary (European/ North-American/ Middle Eastern) centers in whom DMR severity used both integrative and quantitative grading. The MIDA-Q Score ranged from 0 to 15 depending on accumulating risk factors. Long-term survival overall, under medical management and post-mitral surgery was analysed. Results By quantitative grading, MR was no/trivial in 1938 (24%), mild in 1423 (17%), moderate in 2027 (25%) and severe in 2799 (34%), with ERO 0.24±24cm2, RVol 37±35mL, and posterior leaflet prolapse in 49%. MIDA-Q Scores stratified in 8 categories were 0 (score 0, n=851), 1 (score 1–2, n=1301), 2 (score 3–4, n=2043), 3 (score 5–6, n=1581), 4 (score 7–8, n=1273), 5 (score 9–10, n=718), 6 (score 11–12, n=331) and 7 (score 13–15, n=89). In the whole MIDA-Q population (n=8187 patients), 5-year survival under medical management with Scores categories 0–1, 2–4, and 5–7 was 96±1%, 73±1%, and 61±3% respectively (P&lt;0.0001). Five-year mortality ranged from 3% with MIDA Q-score 0 to 95% with MIDA Q-score 13–15 (P&lt;0.0001). After mitral surgery, 1-year mortality with Scores categories 0–1, 2–4, and 5–7 was 0%, 1%, and 6% respectively and 5-year post-operative survival was 99±1%, 94±1%, and 82±2% (all P&lt;0.0001). In models including age, sex and all guideline-provided prognostic markers, the EuroScoreII and the MIDA Score without DMR severity, the MIDA-Q Score provided incremental prognostic information (P&lt;0.001). Conclusion This unheard international cohort of patients with FMV and prospective mitral severity quantitative grading, enables for the first time the calculation of a MIDA-Q Score, highly determinant of survival after diagnosis of FMV with any degree of DMR, that may be very useful for mitral valve prolapse management. Funding Acknowledgement Type of funding sources: Public Institution(s). Main funding source(s): Mayo Fundation Figure 1

Background Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a major risk factor for mortality. The prevalence, clinical correlates, and prognostic impact of AF in Takotsubo syndrome (TTS) have not yet been investigated in a large patient cohort. This study aimed to investigate the prevalence, clinical correlates, and prognostic impact of AF in patients with TTS. Methods and Results Patients with TTS were enrolled from the International Takotsubo Registry, which is a multinational network with 26 participating centers in Europe and the United States. Patients were dichotomized according to the presence or absence of AF at the time of admission. Of 1584 patients with TTS, 112 (7.1%) had AF. The mean age was higher ( P <0.001), and there were fewer women ( P =0.046) in the AF than in the non‐AF group. Left ventricular ejection fraction was significantly lower ( P =0.001), and cardiogenic shock was more often observed ( P <0.001) in the AF group. Both in‐hospital ( P <0.001) and long‐term mortality ( P <0.001) were higher in the AF group. Multivariable Cox regression analysis revealed that AF was independently associated with higher long‐term mortality (hazard ratio, 2.31; 95% CI, 1.50–3.55; P <0.001). Among patients with AF on admission, 42% had no known history of AF before the acute TTS event, and such patients had comparable in‐hospital and long‐term outcomes compared with those with a history of AF. Conclusions In patients presenting with TTS, AF on admission is significantly associated with increased in‐hospital and long‐term mortality rates. Whether antiarrhythmics and/or cardioversion are beneficial in TTS with AF should thus be tested in a future trial. Registration URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov ; Unique identifier: NCT01947621.