Yothers, Greg

419 Background: Deficient DNA mismatch repair (MMR) results in microsatellite instability (MSI) that is detected in ∼15% of sporadic colon cancers. MMR status has been shown to provide prognostic and predictive information. We developed a model to predict MMR deficiency using clinically available data, and thereby facilitate the selection of patient tumors for MMR testing. Methods: Data were utilized from stage II and III colon carcinoma patients (n = 2016) who participated in 5-fluorouracil-based adjuvant studies (NCCTG, FFCD, NCIC, GIVIO, NSABP) and an Italian cohort. MMR status in tumors had been determined by MSI testing or by immunohistochemistry for hMLH1 and hMSH2 proteins. Logistic regression and a recursive partitioning and amalgamation analysis was used to identify factors (histologic grade, gender, tumor site, stage, age, lymph node status, T-stage) predictive of MMR status. Results: Of the cancers, 357 (17.7%) showed deficient MMR. Tumor site was the most important predictor of MMR status followed by histologic grade, then stage (II vs. III) and then gender. Distal tumors had a low likelihood of deficient MMR (5% rate overall), whereas proximal tumors had a greater likelihood of deficient MMR (30%). For patients with proximal tumors, the addition of histologic grade and stage increased the prediction of deficient MMR (Table). Using tumor site, histologic grade, and stage, the logistic regression model showed excellent discrimination (c-statistic = 0.80). Conclusions: Routine clinicopathological data can facilitate the identification of MMR deficient cases. Tumor site and histologic grade were the strongest predictors of MMR deficiency. Within proximal, poorly differentiated tumors, stage was highly predictive. These findings suggest that our model can assist in selecting sporadic colon cancers for MMR testing for use in clinical decision-making, especially for stage II patients. [Table: see text] [Table: see text]

Purpose Factors associated with early mortality after surgery and treatment with adjuvant chemotherapy in colon cancer are poorly understood. We aimed to characterize the determinants of early mortality in a large cohort of colon cancer trial participants. Methods A pooled analysis of 37,568 patients in 25 randomized trials of adjuvant systemic therapy was conducted. Multivariable logistic regression models with several definitions of early mortality (30, 60, and 90 days, and 6 months) were constructed, adjusting for clinically and statistically significant variables. A nomogram for 6-month mortality was developed and validated. Results Median age among patients was 61 years, patient demographics included 54% men and 90% White, 29% and 71% had stage II and III disease, respectively, and 79%, 20%, and 1% had an Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status (PS) of 0, 1, and ≥ 2, respectively. Early mortality was low: 0.3% at 30 days, 0.6% at 60 days, 0.8% at 90 days, and 1.4% at 6 months. Of those patients who died by 6 months post–random assignment, 40% had documented disease recurrence prior to death. Early disease recurrence was associated with a markedly increased risk of death during the first 6 months post-treatment (hazard ratio, 82.6; 95%CI, 66.9 to 102.1). In prognostic analyses, advanced age, male sex, poorer PS, increasing ratio of positive to examined lymph nodes, earlier decade of enrollment, and higher tumor stage and grade predicted a greater likelihood of early mortality, whereas treatment received was not strongly predictive. A multivariable model for 6-month mortality showed strong optimism-adjusted discrimination (concordance index, 0.73) and calibration. Conclusion Early mortality was infrequent but more prevalent in patients with advanced age and a PS of ≥ 2, underscoring the need to carefully consider the risk-to-benefit ratio when making treatment decisions in these subgroups.

Purpose Fluorouracil plus leucovorin (FU + LV) adjuvant chemotherapy reduced the risk of recurrence and death across all time points in a pooled analysis of 20,898 patients with colon cancer from 18 randomized studies. The impact of oxaliplatin added to FU + LV on the time course of recurrence and survival remains unknown. Patients and Methods A total of 12,233 patients enrolled to the randomized trials C-07, C-08, N0147, MOSAIC (Adjuvant Treatment of Colon Cancer), and XELOXA (Adjuvant XELOX) were pooled to examine the impact of oxaliplatin and tumor-specific factors on the time course of recurrence and death. For each end point, continuous-time risk was modeled over 6 years post treatment in all oxaliplatin-treated patients and patients concurrently randomized to FU + LV with or without oxaliplatin; the latter analyses supported time-dependent treatment comparisons. Results Addition of oxaliplatin significantly reduced the risk of recurrence within the first 14 months post treatment for patients with stage II disease and within the first 4 years for patients with stage III disease. Oxaliplatin also significantly reduced risk of death from 2 to 6 years post treatment for patients with stage III disease, with no differences in timing of outcomes between treatment groups (ie, oxaliplatin did not simply postpone recurrence or death compared with FU + LV alone). Patients with stage II disease receiving oxaliplatin did not exhibit a significant reduction in risk of death in the first 6 years post treatment. Recurrence risk peaked near 14 months for both treatments, and risk of recurrence and death increased with increased tumor and nodal burden. Conclusions These analyses support the addition of oxaliplatin to fluoropyrimidine-based adjuvant therapy in patients with stage III disease and underscore the need for adequate surveillance of patients with colon cancer during the first 3 years after adjuvant therapy.

Abstract Purpose: Clinical trials are expensive and lengthy, where success of a given trial depends on observing a prospectively defined number of patient events required to answer the clinical question. The point at which this analysis time occurs depends on both patient accrual and primary event rates, which typically vary throughout the trial's duration. We demonstrate real-time analysis date projections using data from a collection of six clinical trials that are part of the IDEA collaboration, an international preplanned pooling of data from six trials testing the duration of adjuvant chemotherapy in stage III colon cancer, and we additionally consider the hypothetical impact of one trial's early termination of follow-up. Patients and Methods: In the absence of outcome data from IDEA, monthly accrual rates for each of the six IDEA trials were used to project subsequent trial-specific accrual, while historical data from similar Adjuvant Colon Cancer Endpoints (ACCENT) Group trials were used to construct a parametric model for IDEA's primary endpoint, disease-free survival, under the same treatment regimen. With this information and using the planned total accrual from each IDEA trial protocol, individual patient accrual and event dates were simulated and the overall IDEA interim and final analysis times projected. Projections were then compared with actual (previously undisclosed) trial-specific event totals at a recent census time for validation. The change in projected final analysis date assuming early termination of follow-up for one IDEA trial was also calculated. Results: Trial-specific predicted event totals were close to the actual number of events per trial for the recent census date at which the number of events per trial was known, with the overall IDEA projected number of events only off by eight patients. Potential early termination of follow-up by one IDEA trial was estimated to postpone the overall IDEA final analysis date by 9 months. Conclusions: Real-time projection of the final analysis time during a trial, or the overall analysis time during a trial collaborative such as IDEA, has practical implications for trial feasibility when these projections are translated into additional time and resources required.

Purpose With improved patient care, better diagnosis, and more treatment options after tumor recurrence, outcomes after fluorouracil (FU) -based treatment are expected to have improved over time in early-stage colon cancer. Data from 18,449 patients enrolled onto 21 phase III trials conducted from 1978 to 2002 were evaluated for potential differences in time to recurrence (TTR), time from recurrence to death (TRD), and overall survival (OS) with regard to FU-based adjuvant regimens. Methods Trials were predefined as old versus newer era using initial accrual before or after 1995. Outcomes were compared between patients enrolled onto old- or newer-era trials, stratified by stage. Results Within the first 3 years, recurrence rates were lower in newer- versus old-era trials for patients with stage II disease, with no differences among those with stage III disease. Both TRD and OS were significantly longer in newer-era trials overall and within each stage. The lymph node (LN) ratio (ie, number of positive nodes divided by total nodes harvested) in those with stage III disease declined over time. TTR improved slightly, with larger number of LNs examined in both stages. Conclusion Improved TRD in newer trials supports the premise that more aggressive intervention (oxaliplatin- and irinotecan-based chemotherapy and/or surgery for recurrent disease) improves OS for patients previously treated in the adjuvant setting. Lower recurrence rates with identical treatments in those with stage II disease enrolled onto newer-era trials reflect stage migration over time, calling into question historical data related to the benefit of FU-based adjuvant therapy in such patients.

Purpose Prior studies have suggested that patients with stage II/III colon cancer receive similar benefit from intravenous (IV) fluoropyrimidine adjuvant therapy regardless of age. Combination regimens and oral fluorouracil (FU) therapy are now standard. We examined the impact of age on colon cancer recurrence and mortality after adjuvant therapy with these newer options. Patients and Methods We analyzed 11,953 patients age < 70 and 2,575 age ≥ 70 years from seven adjuvant therapy trials comparing IV FU with oral fluoropyrimidines (capecitabine, uracil, or tegafur) or combinations of fluoropyrimidines with oxaliplatin or irinotecan in stage II/III colon cancer. End points were disease-free survival (DFS), overall survival (OS), and time to recurrence (TTR). Results In three studies comparing oxaliplatin-based chemotherapy with IV FU, statistically significant interactions were not observed between treatment arm and age (P interaction = .09 for DFS, .05 for OS, and .36 for TTR), although the stratified point estimates suggested limited benefit from the addition of oxaliplatin in elderly patients (DFS hazard ratio [HR], 0.94; 95% CI, 0.78 to 1.13; OS HR, 1.04; 95% CI, 0.85 to 1.27). No significant interactions by age were detected with oral fluoropyrimidine therapy compared with IV FU; noninferiority was supported in both age populations. Conclusion Patients age ≥ 70 years seemed to experience reduced benefit from adding oxaliplatin to fluoropyrimidines in the adjuvant setting, although statistically, there was not a significant effect modification by age, whereas oral fluoropyrimidines retained their efficacy.

Purpose Limited data exist regarding the outcomes of adjuvant therapy in younger patients with stage II and III colon cancer. We examined disease-free survival (DFS), overall survival (OS), recurrence-free interval (RFI), and grade 3+ adverse events (AEs) in younger patients in the 33,574 patient Adjuvant Colon Cancer Endpoints Group data set. Patients and Methods Individual patient data from 24 randomized phase III clinical trials were obtained for survival outcomes, which included 10 clinical trials for AE outcomes. Two age-based cutoff points were used to define younger patients: age younger than 40 years and younger than 50 years. Adjuvant therapy benefit analyses were limited to the nine clinical trials in which the investigational chemotherapeutic arm demonstrated benefit. Results One thousand seven hundred fifty-eight patients (5.2%) were younger than 40 years, 5,817 patients (17.3%) were younger than 50 years, and only 299 patients (0.9%) were younger than 30 years. No meaningful differences in sex or stage were noted in younger versus older patients. Younger and older patients did not differ in RFI (age, < 40 years: hazard ratio [HR], 1.0; P = .62 and age < 50 years: HR, 1.02; P = .35). Younger patients (both cutoff points), had longer OS and DFS than older patients. In trials demonstrating adjuvant therapy benefit, similar DFS benefit was observed by age. Younger patients experienced less leukopenia and stomatitis, but more frequent nausea/vomiting. Conclusion Among patients on clinical trials, younger and older patients with stage II and III colon cancer had similar RFI and adjuvant therapy benefit. Younger patients have longer OS and DFS, which is likely primarily because of fewer competing causes of death. Adjuvant therapy is beneficial for colon cancer in patients younger than 50 years who meet typical clinical trial eligibility criteria.

PurposeAlthough the importance of obesity in colon cancer risk and outcome is recognized, the association of body mass index (BMI) with DNA mismatch repair (MMR) status is unknown.Patients and MethodsBMI (kg/m2) was determined in patients with TNM stage II or III colon carcinomas (n = 2,693) who participated in randomized trials of adjuvant chemotherapy. The association of BMI with MMR status and survival was analyzed by logistic regression and Cox models, respectively.ResultsOverall, 427 (16%) tumors showed deficient MMR (dMMR), and 630 patients (23%) were obese (BMI ≥ 30 kg/m2). Obesity was significantly associated with younger age (P = .021), distal tumor site (P = .012), and a lower rate of dMMR tumors (10% v 17%; P < .001) compared with normal weight. Obesity remained associated with lower rates of dMMR (odds ratio, 0.57; 95% CI, 0.41 to 0.79; P < .001) after adjusting for tumor site, stage, sex, and age. Among obese patients, rates of dMMR were lower in men compared with women (8% v 13%; P = .041). Obesity was associated with higher recurrence rates (P = .0034) and independently predicted worse disease-free survival (DFS; hazard ratio [HR], 1.37; 95% CI, 1.14 to 1.64; P = .0010) and overall survival (OS), whereas dMMR predicted better DFS (HR, 0.59; 95% CI, 0.47 to 0.74; P < .001) and OS. The favorable prognosis of dMMR was maintained in obese patients.ConclusionColon cancers from obese patients are less likely to show dMMR, suggesting obesity-related differences in the pathogenesis of colon cancer. Although obesity was independently associated with adverse outcome, the favorable prognostic impact of dMMR was maintained among obese patients.