Ballard, David

Objective: To compare an expert panel's global assessment of appropriateness of elective surgery for abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAA) with their assessment of the effect of surgery on the probability of 5-year mortality. Methods: Nine expert panel members rated the appropriateness of 120 scenarios for elective AAA repair on a nine-point scale, and also estimated the 5-year probability of AAA-related death and of non-AAA related death among 30-day survivors of AAA surgery and among patients with unoperated AAA. These probabilities were used to determine differences in 5-year probability of mortality of surgery vs. no surgery for each scenario. Three categories of appropriateness were defined based on these differences: inappropriate (< 0%), equivocal (0-5%), and appropriate (>5%). Results: The distribution of scenarios was inappropriate (39%), equivocal (12%), and appropriate (49%) based on probability estimates and inappropriate (43%), equivocal (22%), and appropriate (36%) based on global assessment. There was poor agreement between the two methods, with a Kappa coefficient=0.28 (95% CI: 0.23 to 0.32). Although a higher proportion of scenarios were rated as appropriate using probability estimation rather than global judgment, the level of agreement among members of the panel was similar, Kappa coefficient= 0.07 (95% CI: — 0.07 to 0.72) Conclusions: Experts disagree about the appropriate indications for elective surgery for AAA. Explicit estimates used in a decision analysis may provide a better assessment of appropriate indications than the global judgment of experts. Global assessment of the appropriateness of AAA surgery based on panel members' review of research evidence for increased survival appears to include implicitly their valuation of outcomes.

Clinical risk factors for nephropathy were assessed in a population-based study of Rochester, Minnesota, residents with diabetes mellitus initially diagnosed between 1945 and 1969 (incidence cohort). The 1031 Rochester residents with non-insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus (NIDDM) were followed through their complete medical records in the community to 1 January 1982. The prevalence of persistent proteinuria was 8.2% at the diagnosis of NIDDM. Among those initially free of persistent proteinuria, the subsequent incidence was 15.3/1000 person-yr. Twenty years after the diagnosis of diabetes, the cumulative incidence of persistent proteinuria was 24.6%. A proportional hazards model identified the following risk factors for persistent proteinuria in NIDDM: elevated initial fasting blood glucose (P &lt; .01); older age at onset of diabetes (P &lt; .01); male gender (P = .05); and presence of macrovascular disease (P = .05), diabetic retinopathy (P = .05), or glycosuria (P = .07) at the diagnosis of diabetes. Separate analyses controlling for attained age indicated no association between duration of NIDDM and the incidence of persistent proteinuria. Stratified analysis of the two most significant risk factors (fasting blood glucose and age) indicated that hyperglycemia was a stronger risk factor for proteinuria in younger diabetic subjects, perhaps because of a competing risk of death in the elderly diabetic patient. In contrast to a recently described decreasing secular trend of proteinuria in Danish insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus patients, there was no decrease over the past 40 yr in proteinuria risk in this NIDDM incidence cohort.

BACKGROUND Virtually all natural history studies of Wolff-Parkinson-White (WPW) syndrome have been case series and, as such, have been constrained by referral biases, skewed age and sex distributions, or brief follow-up periods. The purpose of our study was to examine the natural history, the development of arrhythmias, and the incidence of sudden death in an entire cohort of pediatric and adult WPW patients from a community-based local population. METHODS AND RESULTS We identified 113 residents of Olmsted County, Minnesota, during the period 1953-1989 using the centralized records-linkage system provided by the Mayo Clinic and the Rochester Epidemiology Program Project. Medical records and ECGs were reviewed to confirm the diagnosis and to establish pathway location by ECG criteria. Follow-up, via record review and telephone interview, was complete in 95% of subjects through 1990. The incidence of newly diagnosed cases was approximately four per 100,000 per year. Preexcitation was not present on the initial ECG of 22% of the cohort. Approximately 50% of the population was asymptomatic at diagnosis, with 30% subsequently having symptoms related to arrhythmia at follow-up. Two sudden cardiac deaths (SCD) occurred over 1,338 patient-years of follow-up, yielding an overall SCD rate of 0.0015 (95% confidence interval, 0.0002-0.0054) per patient-year. No SCD occurred in patients asymptomatic at diagnosis. CONCLUSIONS The incidence of sudden death in a local community-based population is low and suggests that electrophysiological testing should not be performed routinely in asymptomatic patients with WPW syndrome. Nevertheless, young, asymptomatic patients, particularly those < 40 years old, should return for medical follow-up should symptoms develop.

Background and Purpose Despite growing concern over the large numbers of specialists in the United States, little information is available on how stroke treatment varies by the specialty of the attending physician. This study compares the costs and outcomes of acute stroke patients by physician specialty, especially between neurologists and other specialists. Methods We selected a random sample of Medicare patients aged 65 years and older admitted with cerebral infarction between January 1 and September 30, 1991, identified from the principal diagnosis on Medicare Provider Analysis and Review records. All Medicare claims for these patients were extracted from the date of admission through 90 days. The attending physician was identified as that physician billing for routine hospital visits during the first 7 days of the stay. Results Neurologists treating stroke patients were significantly more expensive than other physicians but obtained better outcomes. Ninety-day mortality rates for patients treated by neurologists were significantly lower than those for other specialists. These cost and outcome differences persisted even after adjustment for patient age, comorbidity, hospital teaching status, and other characteristics. Compared with other attending physicians, neurologists were significantly more likely to order diagnostic cerebrovascular tests (especially brain MRI scans), more likely to prescribe warfarin, and more likely to discharge patients to inpatient rehabilitation facilities. Conclusions Systematic triaging to neurologists based on clinical characteristics unmeasured by administrative data might explain these observed differences between neurologists and other physicians. Alternatively, these specialists may have been better able to identify the mechanism of stroke, information that then affected the course of treatment. Given current pressures to substitute generalists for specialists, however, more research is needed on these stroke treatment differences.

Background and Purpose The purpose of this study was to clarify whether mitral valve prolapse increases the subsequent risk of stroke. Methods A historical cohort study was conducted on 1079 residents of Olmsted County, Minnesota, who had an initial echocardiographic diagnosis of mitral valve prolapse between 1975 and 1989 without prior stroke or transient ischemic attack and who were followed up for first stroke occurrence. Results There was an overall twofold increase in the incidence of stroke among individuals with mitral valve prolapse relative to the reference population (standardized morbidity ratio, 2.1; 95% confidence interval, 1.3 to 3.2). Sex, duration of follow-up from the diagnosis of mitral valve prolapse, or calendar year of initial diagnosis did not modify the association. Within the cohort of patients who were at least 35 years old at diagnosis of mitral valve prolapse, a time-dependent proportional-hazards multivariate model and a person-years analysis revealed that age, ischemic heart disease, congestive heart failure, and diabetes mellitus were important determinants for stroke when person-years of observation after mitral valve replacement were excluded. Among seven persons with mitral valve replacement, three strokes occurred in 24 person-years of follow-up. For those with an auscultatory diagnosis of mitral valve prolapse only as the indication for echocardiography (44%), the risk of stroke relative to the population was 1.0 (95% confidence interval, 0.2 to 2.9); for those with another cardiac diagnosis, the standardized morbidity ratio was 2.5 (95% confidence interval, 1.5 to 4.0). Conclusions Individuals with uncomplicated mitral valve prolapse did not have an increased risk of stroke, although a small increase in the risk may not have been detected.

Retinopathy is an important sequela of diabetes mellitus, but clinical risk factors for this condition have rarely been assessed in a geographically defined population. In this population-based study, the 1135 Rochester, Minnesota, residents with diabetes mellitus initially diagnosed between 1945 and 1969 (incidence cohort) were followed through their complete medical records in the community to January 1, 1982. Because most of the cases of diabetic retinopathy in Rochester residents developed in patients with non-insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus (NIDDM), risk factors for diabetic retinopathy were examined in this group (N = 1031). A proportional hazards model identified the following risk factors for diabetic retinopathy in NIDDM: elevated initial fasting blood glucose level, marked obesity, and earlier age at onset of diabetes. Stratified analyses indicated that duration of diabetes was also significantly associated with an increased risk of retinopathy. Two secular trends, increasing detection of “mild” NIDDM and decreasing risk of diabetic retinopathy, had a major effect on retinopathy risk assessment. These data also suggest that insulin therapy is not an independent risk factor for diabetic retinopathy.

Among the 1135 Rochester residents discovered to have diabetes in the period 1945–69, the prevalence of retinopathy was 2.6% at the time of initial diagnosis. Among those free of retinopathy at diagnosis of diabetes, the subsequent incidence of any retinopathy was 17.4 per 1000 person-years and for proliferative retinopathy alone was 1.6 per 1000 person-years, based on 12,000 person-years of follow-up. The incidence rate of retinopathy was almost three times greater among residents with insulin-dependent (IDDM) than with non-insulin-dependent diabetes (NIDDM); however, the actual number of retinopathy cases was over four times greater among the more numerous residents with NIDDM. By 20 yr after diagnosis of diabetes, the cumulative incidence of retinopathy approached 70% among IDDM subjects and was 30% and 36%, respectively, among the obese and nonobese NIDDM residents. The epidemiologic patterns for proliferative retinopathy were qualitatively similar to those for nonproliferative retinopathy. The risk of blindness was greater among those with proliferative than with nonproliferative retinopathy but was substantial even for those without retinopathy. Most blindness was caused by factors other than isolated diabetic retinopathy.