Ahearn, Thomas U.

Abstract Background: Use of menopausal hormone therapy (MHT) is associated with increased risk for breast cancer. However, the relevant mechanisms and its interaction with genetic variants are not fully understood. Methods: We conducted a genome-wide interaction analysis between MHT use and genetic variants for breast cancer risk in 27,585 cases and 34,785 controls from 26 observational studies. All women were post-menopausal and of European ancestry. Multivariable logistic regression models were used to test for multiplicative interactions between genetic variants and current MHT use. We considered interaction p-values<5x10-8 as genome-wide significant, and p-values<1x10-5 as suggestive. Linkage disequilibrium (LD)-based clumping was performed to identify independent candidate variants.Results: None of the 9.7 million genetic variants tested for interactions with MHT use reached genome-wide significance. Only 213 variants, representing 18 independent loci, had p-values<1x105. The strongest evidence was found for rs4674019 (p-value=2.27x10-7), which showed genome-wide significant interaction (p-value=3.8x10-8) with current MHT use when analysis was restricted to population-based studies only. Limiting the analyses to combined estrogen-progesterone MHT use only or to estrogen receptor (ER) positive cases did not identify any genome-wide significant evidence of interactions. Conclusions: In this large genome-wide SNP-MHT interaction study of breast cancer, we found no strong support for common genetic variants modifying the effect of MHT on breast cancer risk. These results suggest that common genetic variation has limited impact on the observed MHT–breast cancer risk association.

Abstract BackgroundCopy number variants (CNVs) are pervasive in the human genome but potential disease associations with rare CNVs have not been comprehensively assessed in large datasets. We analysed rare CNVs in genes and non-coding regions for 86,788 breast cancer cases and 76,122 controls of European ancestry with genome-wide array data.ResultsGene burden tests detected the strongest association for deletions in BRCA1 (P= 3.7E-18). Nine other genes were associated with a p-value < 0.01 including known susceptibility genes CHEK2 (P= 0.0008), ATM (P= 0.002) and BRCA2 (P= 0.008). Outside the known genes we detected associations with p-values < 0.001 for either overall or subtype-specific breast cancer at nine deletion regions and four duplication regions. Three of the deletion regions were in established common susceptibility loci.ConclusionsThis is the first genome-wide analysis of rare CNVs in a large breast cancer case-control dataset. We detected associations with exonic deletions in established breast cancer susceptibility genes. We also detected suggestive associations with non-coding CNVs in known and novel loci with large effects sizes. Larger sample sizes will be required to reach robust levels of statistical significance.

Abstract Background: Use of menopausal hormone therapy (MHT) is associated with increased risk for breast cancer. However, the relevant mechanisms and its interaction with genetic variants are not fully understood. Methods: We conducted a genome-wide interaction analysis between MHT use and genetic variants for breast cancer risk in 27,585 cases and 34,785 controls from 26 observational studies. All women were post-menopausal and of European ancestry. Multivariable logistic regression models were used to test for multiplicative interactions between genetic variants and current MHT use. We considered interaction p-values<5x10-8 as genome-wide significant, and p-values<1x10-5 as suggestive. Linkage disequilibrium (LD)-based clumping was performed to identify independent candidate variants.Results: None of the 9.7 million genetic variants tested for interactions with MHT use reached genome-wide significance. Only 213 variants, representing 18 independent loci, had p-values<1x105. The strongest evidence was found for rs4674019 (p-value=2.27x10-7), which showed genome-wide significant interaction (p-value=3.8x10-8) with current MHT use when analysis was restricted to population-based studies only. Limiting the analyses to combined estrogen-progesterone MHT use only or to estrogen receptor (ER) positive cases did not identify any genome-wide significant evidence of interactions. Conclusions: In this large genome-wide SNP-MHT interaction study of breast cancer, we found no strong support for common genetic variants modifying the effect of MHT on breast cancer risk. These results suggest that common genetic variation has limited impact on the observed MHT–breast cancer risk association.

Abstract Background: It is not known whether modifiable lifestyle factors that predict survival after invasive breast cancer differ by subtype. Methods: We analyzed data for 121,435 women diagnosed with breast cancer from 67 studies in the Breast Cancer Association Consortium with 16,890 deaths (8,554 breast cancer specific) over 10 years. Cox regression was used to estimate associations between risk factors and 10-year all-cause mortality and breast cancer–specific mortality overall, by estrogen receptor (ER) status, and by intrinsic-like subtype. Results: There was no evidence of heterogeneous associations between risk factors and mortality by subtype (Padj &gt; 0.30). The strongest associations were between all-cause mortality and BMI ≥30 versus 18.5–25 kg/m2 [HR (95% confidence interval (CI), 1.19 (1.06–1.34)]; current versus never smoking [1.37 (1.27–1.47)], high versus low physical activity [0.43 (0.21–0.86)], age ≥30 years versus &lt;20 years at first pregnancy [0.79 (0.72–0.86)]; &gt;0–&lt;5 years versus ≥10 years since last full-term birth [1.31 (1.11–1.55)]; ever versus never use of oral contraceptives [0.91 (0.87–0.96)]; ever versus never use of menopausal hormone therapy, including current estrogen–progestin therapy [0.61 (0.54–0.69)]. Similar associations with breast cancer mortality were weaker; for example, 1.11 (1.02–1.21) for current versus never smoking. Conclusions: We confirm associations between modifiable lifestyle factors and 10-year all-cause mortality. There was no strong evidence that associations differed by ER status or intrinsic-like subtype. Impact: Given the large dataset and lack of evidence that associations between modifiable risk factors and 10-year mortality differed by subtype, these associations could be cautiously used in prognostication models to inform patient-centered care.

Abstract We evaluated the joint associations between a new 313-variant PRS (PRS313) and questionnaire-based breast cancer risk factors for women of European ancestry, using 72 284 cases and 80 354 controls from the Breast Cancer Association Consortium. Interactions were evaluated using standard logistic regression and a newly developed case-only method for breast cancer risk overall and by estrogen receptor status. After accounting for multiple testing, we did not find evidence that per-standard deviation PRS313 odds ratio differed across strata defined by individual risk factors. Goodness-of-fit tests did not reject the assumption of a multiplicative model between PRS313 and each risk factor. Variation in projected absolute lifetime risk of breast cancer associated with classical risk factors was greater for women with higher genetic risk (PRS313 and family history) and, on average, 17.5% higher in the highest vs lowest deciles of genetic risk. These findings have implications for risk prevention for women at increased risk of breast cancer.

Abstract Background: Prospective validation of breast cancer risk models integrating classical risk factors and genetic variants is required for risk-stratified prevention and screening strategies. The objective of this study was to validate a breast cancer risk model integrating classical risk factors and a 313-variant polygenic risk score (PRS) in multiple prospective cohort studies, and to project five-year risk of breast cancer in six different countries. Methods: The study population included 7,529 cases and 230,103 controls from 14 prospective cohort studies in Australia, Germany, the Netherlands, Sweden, UK, and USA. We used the Individualized Coherent Absolute Risk Estimator (iCARE) tool for risk model building, validation, and risk projection. Expected five-year risk of invasive or in situ breast cancer was compared to observed risk, overall and within deciles of expected risk using goodness of fit statistics. We evaluated calibration of the relative risk through meta-analysis across cohorts, and of the absolute risk within each cohort. Model discrimination was evaluated using the area under the curve (AUC), and percentages of women crossing risk thresholds. Projections of five-year risk distributions were estimated for women of European ancestry aged 50-70 years in the general populations of these six countries. Results: Analysis showed overall good calibration of the integrated iCARE-based model relative risk for both women younger than 50 years (χ2=14.9, P=0.09) and aged 50 years or older (χ2=14.6, P=0.10), with a small overestimation of risk for women in the highest decile of expected risk (RR = 3.5 expected vs 2.3 (95% CI 1.6 to 3.2) observed for women &lt;50 years; and 2.8 expected vs 2.3 (95% CI 2.0 to 2.7) observed for women 50+ years). The age-adjusted AUCs for the integrated model were 63.1 (95% CI 60.9 to 65.3) and 62.9 (95% CI 61.8 to 64.0), for the two age groups respectively. The calibration of absolute risk showed substantial variation across cohorts, particularly for the older group, but had no systematic bias. Model based projections in the general populations showed that compared to the population average, women in the 1st and 99th percentiles of the integrated risk score had relative risks 0.19 and 3.56 respectively. The proportion of women of European ancestry aged 50-70 years with a five-year risk greater than 3% (threshold for consideration of risk-lowering drugs by U.S. Preventive Services Task Force) ranged from 7.1% in Germany to 18.2% in the US, which corresponds to ~5.5 million women in the US. Conclusions: Five-year risk predictions from a model with classical risk factors and PRS are well calibrated and provide substantial risk stratification across multiple cohorts in six different countries. Further studies are needed to evaluate the clinical utility of the validated model for risk stratified screening and prevention of breast cancer. Citation Format: Parichoy Pal Choudhury, Amber Wilcox, Chi Gao, Brian Carter, Anika Husing, Mark Brook, Mikael Eriksson, Kara Martin, Chris Scott, Min Shi, Thomas Ahearn, Michael Jones, Nick Orr, Minouk Schoemaker, Kamila Czene, Jenny Chang-Claude, Jacques Simard, Doug Easton, Marjanka K. Schmidt, Dale Sandler, Clarice R. Weinberg, Celine Vachon, Roger Milne, Per Hall, Anthony Swerdlow, Rudolph Kaaks, Myrto Barrdahl, Mia Gaudet, Antonis Antoniou, Peter Kraft, Montserrat Garcia-Closas, Nilanjan Chatterjee. Validation of breast cancer risk model incorporating classical risk factors and polygenic risk scores in 14 prospective cohort studies in 6 countries [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the American Association for Cancer Research Annual Meeting 2019; 2019 Mar 29-Apr 3; Atlanta, GA. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2019;79(13 Suppl):Abstract nr 962.

Abstract Introduction: Epidemiologic data support an inverse association between statin use and risk of lethal prostate cancer, but contributing mechanisms have not been elucidated. Herein, using data from the Health Professionals Follow-up Study (HPFS), we updated our previous analysis of statins and lethal prostate cancer with a decade of additional follow-up, and incorporated immunohistochemistry (IHC)-based biomarkers and gene expression profiling to identify putative molecular mechanisms contributing to the association. Methods: We included data from 44,076 HPFS participants who were cancer free in 1990, with follow-up through 2012. Participants reported prediagnostic statin use on biennial questionnaires. Statin use was categorized as current vs. never/past use, with current users further categorized as long-term vs. short-term users (≥6 vs. &lt;6 years). To classify prostate cancer molecular subtypes, genetically validated IHC assays for TMPRSS2:ERG fusion and PTEN loss were conducted on tissue microarrays for 891 and 660 cases, respectively. Whole-genome mRNA profiling of tumor and adjacent normal tissue was completed for 237 and 114 cases, respectively, using Affymetrix GeneChip Human Gene 1.0 ST arrays. We used Cox proportional hazards analysis to generate hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for associations between statin use and risk of overall, advanced (stage T3b or higher at diagnosis, metastatic or fatal), and lethal (metastatic or fatal) prostate cancer, as well as molecular subtypes, adjusted for PSA testing behavior and potential confounders including obesity and smoking. Moreover, we explored gene expression pathways in tumor and adjacent normal prostate tissue of statin users vs. nonusers using gene set enrichment analysis (GSEA). Results: During 22 years of follow-up, 6,144 men were diagnosed with prostate cancer; 1,051 (17%) had advanced disease and 827 (13%) developed lethal prostate cancer. Of cases with molecular subtype available, 48% were ERG-positive and 14% PTEN-null. In multivariable analysis, relative to never/past use, current statin use was inversely associated with risk of advanced (HR 0.84; 95% CI 0.68-1.04) and lethal (HR 0.78; 95% CI 0.68-1.01) prostate cancer. These associations were more pronounced in long-term users, where ≥6 years of prediagnosis statin use was significantly associated with a lower risk of advanced (HR 0.72; 95% CI 0.53-0.97) and lethal prostate cancer (HR 0.64; 95% CI 0.45-0.92), relative to nonuse. Long-term statin use was not associated with overall prostate cancer risk, whether ERG-positive (HR 0.89; 95% CI 0.59-1.35) or ERG-negative (HR 1.06; 95% CI 0.74-1.50). However, relative to nonuse, a longer duration of prediagnosis statin use was associated with reduced risk of PTEN-null cancers (HR 0.42; 95% CI 0.20-0.90), but not PTEN-intact disease (HR 1.18; 95% CI 0.95-1.46; p-heterogeneity=0.01). In GSEA, we identified T cell, B cell, and phosphatidylinositol (PI3K) signaling among the top pathways enriched in tumor-adjacent normal prostate tissue of current statin users, relative to never users. Intriguingly, no gene sets were differentially expressed by statin use in the tumor. Discussion: Our updated findings from the HPFS are consistent with our prior findings and other epidemiologic data supporting a role for statins in lethal prostate cancer prevention. Molecular classification of tumors identified PTEN/PI3K signaling and inflammation/immune activation as two potential mechanisms contributing to this association. Elucidating molecular mechanisms mediating the association between statin use and lower risk of lethal prostate cancer will provide support for a causal effect of statins on lethal prostate cancer risk and could inform statin clinical trials with appropriate intermediate endpoints. Citation Format: Emma H. Allott, Ericka M. Ebot, Amparo G. Gonzalez-Feliciano, Sarah C. Markt, Kathryn M. Wilson, Thomas U. Ahearn, Travis A. Gerke, Mary K. Downer, Konrad H. Stopsack, Jennifer R. Rider, Stephen J. Freedland, Elizabeth A. Platz, Meir J. Stampfer, Edward L. Giovannucci, Christopher J. Sweeney, Stephen P. Finn, Lorelei A. Mucci. Molecular tumor profiling to identify mechanisms linking statin use with lower risk of lethal prostate cancer: Results from the Health Professionals Follow-up Study [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the AACR Special Conference: Prostate Cancer: Advances in Basic, Translational, and Clinical Research; 2017 Dec 2-5; Orlando, Florida. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2018;78(16 Suppl):Abstract nr A015.