Ahn, Joseph

Background and Aims: Alcohol-associated hepatitis (AH) poses significant short-term mortality. Existing prognostic models lack precision for 90-day mortality. Utilizing artificial intelligence in a global cohort, we sought to derive and validate an enhanced prognostic model. Approach and Results: The Global AlcHep initiative, a retrospective study across 23 centers in 12 countries, enrolled patients with AH per National Institute for Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism criteria. Centers were partitioned into derivation (11 centers, 860 patients) and validation cohorts (12 centers, 859 patients). Focusing on 30 and 90-day postadmission mortality, 3 artificial intelligence algorithms (Random Forest, Gradient Boosting Machines, and eXtreme Gradient Boosting) informed an ensemble model, subsequently refined through Bayesian updating, integrating the derivation cohort’s average 90-day mortality with each center’s approximate mortality rate to produce posttest probabilities. The ALCoholic Hepatitis Artificial INtelligence Ensemble score integrated age, gender, cirrhosis, and 9 laboratory values, with center-specific mortality rates. Mortality was 18.7% (30 d) and 27.9% (90 d) in the derivation cohort versus 21.7% and 32.5% in the validation cohort. Validation cohort 30 and 90-day AUCs were 0.811 (0.779–0.844) and 0.799 (0.769–0.830), significantly surpassing legacy models like Maddrey’s Discriminant Function, Model for End-Stage Liver Disease variations, age-serum bilirubin-international normalized ratio-serum Creatinine score, Glasgow, and modified Glasgow Scores (p < 0.001). ALCoholic Hepatitis Artificial INtelligence Ensemble score also showcased superior calibration against MELD and its variants. Steroid use improved 30-day survival for those with an ALCoholic Hepatitis Artificial INtelligence Ensemble score > 0.20 in both derivation and validation cohorts. Conclusions: Harnessing artificial intelligence within a global consortium, we pioneered a scoring system excelling over traditional models for 30 and 90-day AH mortality predictions. Beneficial for clinical trials, steroid therapy, and transplant indications, it’s accessible at: https://aihepatology.shinyapps.io/ALCHAIN/.

Background: The natural history of primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC) among African Americans (AA) is not well understood. Methods: Transplant-free survival and hepatic decompensation–free survival were assessed using a retrospective research registry from 16 centers throughout North America. Patients with PSC alive without liver transplantation after 2008 were included. Diagnostic delay was defined from the first abnormal liver test to the first abnormal cholangiogram/liver biopsy. Socioeconomic status was imputed by the Zip code. Results: Among 850 patients, 661 (77.8%) were non-Hispanic Whites (NHWs), and 85 (10.0%) were AA. There were no significant differences by race in age at diagnosis, sex, or PSC type. Inflammatory bowel disease was more common in NHWs (75.8% vs. 51.8% p =0.0001). The baseline (median, IQR) Amsterdam-Oxford Model score was lower in NHWs (14.3, 13.4–15.2 vs. 15.1, 14.1–15.7, p =0.002), but Mayo risk score (0.03, −0.8 to 1.1 vs. 0.02, −0.7 to 1.0, p =0.83), Model for End-stage Liver Disease (5.9, 2.8–10.7 vs. 6.4, 2.6–10.4, p =0.95), and cirrhosis (27.4% vs. 27.1%, p =0.95) did not differ. Race was not associated with hepatic decompensation, and after adjusting for clinical variables, neither race nor socioeconomic status was associated with transplant-free survival. Variables independently associated with death/liver transplant (HR, 95% CI) included age at diagnosis (1.04, 1.02–1.06, p <0.0001), total bilirubin (1.06, 1.04–1.08, p <0.0001), and albumin (0.44, 0.33–0.61, p <0.0001). AA race did not affect the performance of prognostic models. Conclusions: AA patients with PSC have a lower rate of inflammatory bowel disease but similar progression to hepatic decompensation and liver transplant/death compared to NHWs.

Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is considered an independent risk factor for the development of cardiovascular disease. However, the association between changes in NAFLD status and the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) remains uncertain. Starting January 1, 2013, participants were followed until the occurrence of CVD event, death, or December 31, 2020. This was a population-based cohort study that included data from adults aged ≥ 20, who underwent 2 consecutive health screenings from 2009 to 2012. NAFLD was defined as a Fatty Liver Index ≥ 60 at each screening. The primary endpoint was a CVD event, which encompassed ischemic heart disease and cerebrovascular disease. The association between changes in NAFLD status and the risk of CVD was determined using multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression. This cohort comprised 4656,305 adults with a median age of 53 years. During 36,396,968 person-years of follow-up, 238,933 (5.1%) CVD events were observed. Compared to patients with no NAFLD at both screenings, patients who developed NAFLD at the second screening exhibited an increased risk of CVD (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.15; 95% confidence interval, 1.13–1.17). In contrast, individuals who recovered from NAFLD at the second screening demonstrated a reduced CVD risk compared to those with persistent NAFLD (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.91; 95% confidence interval, 0.90–0.92). The reversal of NAFLD is associated with a reduced risk of CVD. Therefore, focusing on NAFLD treatment could serve as a clinical target for lowering CVD risk.

Background: Alcohol-associated hepatitis (AH) is among the deadliest liver diseases, but its incidence is poorly defined. The aim of our study was to define the incidence of AH meeting the National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism criteria and to identify risk factors for AH. Methods: We conducted a retrospective cohort study using the Rochester epidemiology project database on adult patients hospitalized with AH between January 1, 2000 and December 31, 2018. Patients were screened using ICD-9 codes and then included if they met the National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism criteria on manual chart review. Baseline demographics, comorbidities, access to care, liver-related complications, and outcomes were obtained. The HOUsing-based index of SocioEconomic status index was used to measure socioeconomic status. Incidence rates were calculated in cases per 100,000 person-years of follow-up. Results: Among 204 patients, the cumulative AH incidence was 6.8 per 100,000 person-years. Between 2000–2004 and 2015–2018, AH incidence among males increased from 8.4 to 14.7 per 100,000 py, whereas AH incidence among females increased by 7-fold from 0.8 to 5.9 per 100,000 py. Such increases among females were accompanied by increases in comorbid depression and anxiety. The proportion of patients with AH in the lower socioeconomic status quartiles increased from 62.9% between 2000 and 2004 to 73.3% between 2015 and 2019. Conclusions: The incidence of AH is increasing rapidly, especially among females and individuals of lower socioeconomic status. There are areas of unmet need in preventative measures and treatments for comorbid psychiatric disorders in patients at high risk of AH.

(1) Background: The association between proton pump inhibitor (PPI) use and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) has been controversial, especially in the general population. We aimed to determine the impact of PPI on HCC risk in participants without liver cirrhosis or chronic hepatitis virus infection. (2) Methods: We assessed 406,057 participants from the Korean National Health Insurance Service database who underwent health screening from 2003 to 2006. We evaluated exposure to PPI before the index date using a standardized daily defined dose (DDD) system. The association of proton pump inhibitor use with the risk of HCC was evaluated using multivariable-adjusted Cox proportional hazards regression. (3) Results: Compared with non-users, PPI use was not associated with the HCC risk in low (<30 DDDs; aHR, 1.07; 95% CI, 0.91–1.27), intermediate (30 ≤ PPI < 60 DDDs; aHR, 0.96; 95% CI, 0.73–1.26), and high (≥60 DDDs; aHR, 0.86; 95% CI, 0.63–1.17) PPI groups in the final adjustment model. In addition, risks of cirrhosis-associated HCC and non-cirrhosis-associated HCC were not significantly associated with PPI use. The results remained consistent after excluding events that occurred within 1, 2, and 3 years to exclude pre-existing conditions that may be associated with the development of HCC. We also found no PPI-associated increase in HCC risk among the selected population, such as those with obesity, older age, and chronic liver diseases. (4) Conclusions: PPI use may not be associated with HCC risk regardless of the amount. We call for future studies conducted in other regions to generalize our findings.

Abstract Background and Aims Immunotherapy has emerged as an effective treatment for patients with advanced‐stage HCC. We aimed to investigate the efficacy of immunotherapy for advanced HCC in a nationwide cohort and racial and ethnic disparities in access to immunotherapy. Approach and Results We used the US National Cancer Database to identify patients with tumor‐node‐metastasis stage 3 or 4 HCC between 2017 and 2018. We performed multivariable Cox regression to identify factors associated with overall survival (OS) and logistic regression to identify factors associated with receipt of immunotherapy. Of the 3,990 patients treated for advanced HCC, 3,248 (81.4%) patients received chemotherapy and 742 (18.6%) patients received immunotherapy as a first‐line treatment. Immunotherapy was associated with improved OS compared with chemotherapy (adjusted HR: 0.76, 95% CI: 0.65–0.88) after adjusting for covariates. There were racial and ethnic disparities in access to immunotherapy, with Hispanic (adjusted OR [aOR]: 0.63, 95% CI: 0.46–0.83) and Black patients (aOR: 0.71, 95% CI: 0.54–0.89) less likely to receive immunotherapy compared with White patients. There was a significant interaction between race‐ethnicity and facility type, with higher disparity observed in nonacademic centers (interaction p = 0.004). Conclusions Immunotherapy was associated with improved OS compared with chemotherapy in advanced HCC. There are significant disparities in early access to immunotherapy, likely due to differential access to clinical trials and experimental therapies. A comprehensive approach to monitoring and eliminating racial‐ethnic disparities in the management of advanced HCC is urgently needed.

Abstract Background : Studies have proposed an inverse association between allergic diseases and cancer risk, but few studies to date have specifically investigated the risk of primary liver cancer (hepatocellular carcinoma, HCC; intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma, ICC) in patients with or without allergic diseases. Objective : The aim of this study was to evaluate the association between allergic diseases and risk of developing liver cancer.Methods: A retrospective cohort study of the Korean National Health Insurance Service database was performed to study 405,512 South Korean adults ages 40 and above who underwent routine health screening after January 1st, 2005. All participants were followed for liver cancer diagnosis or death until December 31st, 2013. Those who died before the index date, had pre-diagnosed cancer, or did not undergo health screening were excluded. Cox proportional hazards regression was performed to determine the adjusted hazard ratios(aHRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for risk of developing liver cancer according presence or absence of atopic dermatitis, asthma and allergic rhinitis.Results: The aHR (95% CI) for overall liver cancer among allergic patients was 0.72 (0.64-0.81). Allergic patients had significantly reduced risk of HCC (aHR: 0.70, 95% CI: 0.61-0.81) but not ICC (aHR: 0.99, 95% CI: 0.71-1.08). Presence of allergic diseases was associated with significantly lower risk of liver cancer in both patients with (aHR: 0.61, 95% CI: 0.47-0.8) or without (aHR: 0.74, 95% CI: 0.65-0.85) chronic Hepatitis B/C infections. Presence of allergic diseases was associated with significantly lower risk of liver cancer in patients without cirrhosis (aHR: 0.72, 95% CI 0.63-0.82), but not in those with cirrhosis (aHR: 0.98, 95% CI 0.68-1.41). Patients with multiple allergies had even lower risk of liver cancer compared to patients with single allergy. Conclusion: Patients with allergic diseases have significantly lower risk of developing liver cancer compared to those without allergic diseases, which supports the rationale for immunotherapy as an effective treatment of liver cancer.