Meyerhardt, Jeffrey A.

343 Background: Alliance/CALGB 80802, a randomized phase III trial, evaluated sorafenib plus doxorubicin vs. doxorubicin in pts with HCC and showed no improvement in median overall survival (OS) (HR[95CI] 1.05[0.83-1.31]) or PFS (HR[95CI] 0.93[0.75-1.16]). In HCC surrogacy of tumor response with OS remains controversial, in part due to varying criteria used for response evaluation (e.g., RECIST1.1 and mRECIST). We evaluated the performance of several models to predict OS using pretreatment clinical and radiomic variables. Methods: In CALBG 80802, we segmented all measurable tumor lesions on sequential CT scans. A lesion’s imaging phenotype was deciphered with 23 uncorrelated quantitative imaging features measured at baseline and week (wk) 10 (first follow-up). An OS landmark survival analysis was conducted at wk 10. Patients were randomly assigned (3:1) to training (n = 92) and validation (n = 37) sets. In a training set, 6 random forest predictive models (6 signatures) used features that best predicted OS using 3 sets of variables: radiomics only (n = 23), clinical only (n = 9), radiomics and clinical (n = 32). Two time points (baseline only or baseline + wk 10) were assessed. Each signature's output was an individualized prediction and a continuous value ranging from 0 to 1 (from most to least favorable predicted OS). The primary endpoint was to compare these models' performance to predict OS using error rate (Harrell's concordance-index) in the validation set. Results: Of the 6 training signatures evaluated, the one achieving the highest performance in the validation set was an 8-feature signature combining radiomics and clinical variables measured at two time points (baseline + wk 10) with an error rate of 35.6%. The variables [rank of importance] (table) selected by the signature included baseline clinical features (albumin[1], AFP[2], Child-Pugh[4]), baseline radiomics features (component 17[3], component 1[5], component 9[7], tumor volume[8]) and wk 10 radiomics features (delta tumor volume[6]). Variable delta tumor volume [6] used a more enhanced estimation of tumor burden at baseline and a delta tumor volumetric measurement; compared to RECIST1.1 measurement of percentage change in unidimensional measurement of a subset of target lesions. The four quartiles of the signature were significantly associated with OS (Log-Rank, P < 0.0001). Conclusions: The selected combined radiomic and clinical composite signature provided the best prediction for OS in the 80802 study patients’ population. It is a suggested way forward to go beyond single anatomic measurement techniques such as RECIST or mRECIST. [Table: see text]

325 Background: Alliance/CALGB 80802 randomized phase III trial evaluated DO+S vs. S in pts with aHCC, and showed no improvement in median OS. Multi-drug resistant pathway mitigation by the Ras/Raf/MEK/ERK pathway and bFGF-mediated activation of Raf-1 promotes the formation of antiapoptotic Raf-1 and ASK1 complex, induced by anthracyclines. S efficiently blocks NS5A-recruited c-Raf mediated HCV replication and viral gene expression. Once inhibited by S, VEGF expression of HepG2 may limit HCV cellular entry. Release of Raf-1-Ask-1 dimer and inhibition of Raf-1 via S putatively differ in the presence or absence of DO. We hypothesize treatment with S reduces HCV titer levels (TL) and influence pts’ outcome. Methods: In 80802 HCV pts, TL were evaluated in both arms at baseline and post-baseline at Day 1 of Cycles 2, 3, and every 2 cycles and at progression or discontinuation of therapy. HCV undetectable (HCV-UN) levels were defined as < 50 copies/mL. TL were evaluated in relation to OS and PFS. HCV RNA levels were measured by TaqMan PCR and by genotype. Results: Of 356 pts, 83 were HCV+ with more Black/African American (25/50 = 50%) vs. White (54/239 = 23%) or other race groups (4/67 = 6%) (p < 0.0001). HCV titer data were available on 54 pts (S: 28, DO+S: 26). At baseline, 12 pts (S: 7, DO+S: 5) were HCV-UN, and post-baseline HCV TL did not significantly differ between treatment arms; one patient in each arm went from detectable (HCV-D) to HCV-UN. Post-baseline, 40 pts were HCV-D vs. 14 who were HCV-UN (S+DO: 8, S: 6 pts). Except for the two pts who became HCV-UN, baseline HCV-D vs. HCV-UN titers was similar to that status post-baseline. PFS and OS between HCV-D and HCV-UN both at baseline and post-baseline are delineated in the table. Conclusions: We observed that S did not influence HCV TL. Pts treated with DO+S vs. S had worse PFS if they had HCV-UN, and further that higher levels of HCV titers at baseline were associated with significantly improved PFS. Given the small sample size, these findings warrant further prospective evaluation. Support: U10CA180821, U10CA180882, U24CA196171; Bayer, Bristol-Myers-Squibb, and Sanofi. https://acknowledgments.alliancefound.org . Clinical trial information: NCT01015833. [Table: see text]

10 Background: In colon cancer, tumor deposits (TD) have been associated with worse prognosis, but they are included in the TNM staging system only in the absence of lymph node metastasis (i.e., stage III pN1c tumors). Here we aimed at evaluating the prognostic value of TD and the impact of the addition of TD in the count of lymph node metastases in patients with stage III colon cancer from the CALGB/SWOG 80702 phase III trial (NCT01150045). Methods: Pathological reports of all patients were reviewed for the presence and the count of TD, primary tumor sidedness, lymphovascular invasion and perineural invasion. Cases without available pathological report or without specific information of TD were excluded. Prognostic associations were evaluated by multi-variable Cox models adjusting for treatment arm, T-stage, N-stage, lymphovascular invasion, perineural invasion and lymph node ratio. Results: Overall, 2028 patients were included, with 524 (26%) TD-positive and 1504 (74%) TD-negative stage III tumors. Of the TD-positive patients, 80 (15.4%) were node negative (i.e., pN1c), 239 (46.1%) were pN1a/b and 200 (38.55%) were pN2. 17.2% and 37.0% of all pN1a/b and pN2 tumors had TD. Overall median follow-up was 69.3 months. The presence of TD was associated with poorer DFS (adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) = 1.59, 95%CI 1.28-1.91) and OS (aHR = 1.52, 95%CI 1.18-1.95) in the overall population. The negative effect of TD on DFS and OS was observed for both pN1a/b and pN2 groups and confirmed in multivariate Cox model. Among TD-positive patients, the number of TD had a linear negative effect on DFS and OS. Adding TD to the count of lymph node metastases, 104 of 1570 (6.6%) patients initially considered as pN1 were re-staged as pN2. Re-staged pN2 patients experienced worse DFS (3-year DFS rate: 65.5% versus 80.3%, P = .0003) and OS (5-year OS rate: 69.1 versus 87.8%, P = .0005) than patients confirmed as pN1. Re-staged pN2 patients had similar DFS than patients initially staged as pN2 (3-year DFS rate: 65.5% versus 63.1%, P = .1992). OS curves of these 2 groups crossed, with better outcomes during the first 3 years of follow-up but poorer 5-year estimates for re-staged pN2 patients (5-year OS rate: 69.1% versus 74.8%, P = .0436). Conclusions: TD are found in more than one fourth of stage III colon cancer specimens. The number of TD has a linear deleterious effect on patients’ prognosis. Adding the number of TD to the count of lymph node metastases improves the prognostication accuracy of the TNM staging. Support: U10CA180821, U10CA180882; https://acknowledgments.alliancefound.org . Clinical trial information: NCT01150045.

4010 Background: Prior studies suggested that older and younger pts with colon cancer receive similar benefit from IV fluoropyrimidine (FU) adjuvant (adj) therapy (rx). Combination and/or oral FU rx are increasingly given as adj rx. We sought to determine the impact of pts age <70 v ≥70 yrs on colon cancer recurrence and mortality from adj rx with these newer options. Methods: We used data from 10,499 pts <70 yrs and 2,170 pts ≥70 yrs in 6 phase III adj rx trials comparing IV FU to combinations with irinotecan, oxaliplatin or oral FU (capecitabine and UFT/LV) in stage II/III colon cancer from the ACCENT database. Endpoints were overall survival (OS; time to death), disease-free survival (DFS; time to recurrence or death), and time to recurrence (TTR; censoring at last follow-up). Cox models were stratified by age and adjusted for gender and stage; interaction testing was used to explore the differential benefit by age. Results: Approximately 75% of pts had stage III disease (74% age<70, 77% age≥70). OS, DFS, and TTR were statistically significantly improved for those in the experimental v control arms among pts <70 but not those >70 ( table ); the interaction between age and rx was statistically significant for all endpoints (p=0.01 for OS, DFS, and TTR). These results were consistent whether experimental rx was oxaliplatin-based, irinotecan-based or oral FU. Deaths in first 6 month of adj rx were not statistically significantly different between experimental and control arm. Conclusions: Our results show conclusively that pts >70 do not receive the same benefit from combination and/or oral FU as those <70. Any benefit, if present, compared to IV FU/LV would not be clinically meaningful. Outcomes of experimental (combination or oral FU) vs control (IV 5-FU) by treatment and age [Table: see text] [Table: see text]

AbstractBackgroundEnergy balance-related biomarkers are associated with risk and prognosis of various malignancies. Their relationship to survival in metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC) requires further study.MethodsBaseline plasma insulin-like growth factor (IGF)-1, IGF-binding protein (IGFBP)-3, IGFBP-7, C-peptide, and adiponectin were measured at time of trial registration in a prospective cohort of patients with mCRC participating in a National Cancer Institute–sponsored trial of first-line systemic therapy. We used Cox proportional hazards regression to adjust for confounders and examine associations of each biomarker with overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS). P values are 2-sided.ResultsMedian follow-up for 1086 patients was 6.2 years. Compared with patients in the lowest IGFBP-3 quintile, patients in the highest IGFBP-3 quintile experienced an adjusted hazard ratio (HR) for OS of 0.57 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.42 to 0.78; Pnonlinearity &lt; .001) and for PFS of 0.61 (95% CI = 0.45 to 0.82; Ptrend = .003). Compared with patients in the lowest IGFBP-7 quintile, patients in the highest IGFBP-7 quintile experienced an adjusted hazard ratio for OS of 1.60 (95% CI = 1.30 to 1.97; Ptrend &lt; .001) and for PFS of 1.38 (95% CI = 1.13 to 1.69; Ptrend &lt; .001). Plasma C-peptide and IGF-1 were not associated with patient outcomes. Adiponectin was not associated with OS; there was a nonlinear U-shaped association between adiponectin and PFS (Pnonlinearity = .03).ConclusionsAmong patients with mCRC, high plasma IGFBP-3 and low IGFBP-7 were associated with longer OS and PFS. Extreme levels of adiponectin were associated with shorter PFS. These findings suggest potential avenues for prognostic and therapeutic innovation.

The NCCN Guidelines for Rectal Cancer provide recommendations for the diagnosis, evaluation, treatment, and follow-up of patients with rectal cancer. These NCCN Guidelines Insights summarize the panel discussion behind recent important updates to the guidelines. These updates include clarifying the definition of rectum and differentiating the rectum from the sigmoid colon; the total neoadjuvant therapy approach for localized rectal cancer; and biomarker-targeted therapy for metastatic colorectal cancer, with a focus on new treatment options for patients with BRAF V600E– or HER2 amplification–positive disease.

Abstract Background: Hyperinsulinemia is considered to be important in the development of colon cancer, but few studies have investigated the associations of hyperinsulinemia with colon cancer survival via dietary scores. Methods: Empirical dietary index for hyperinsulinemia (EDIH) was derived to assess the insulinemic potential of daily diets reflecting the long-term insulin exposure, with higher (more positive) scores indicating higher insulinemic diets. We prospectively estimated the HRs and 95% confidence intervals (CI) to investigate the association of EDIH with disease-free, recurrence-free, and overall survival among patients with stage III colon cancer (1999–2009) enrolled in a randomized adjuvant chemotherapy trial (CALGB 89803). Results: Of 1,024 patients (median follow-up: 7.3 years), 311 died, 350 had recurrences, and 394 had events for disease-free survival. Compared with patients in the lowest quintile of EDIH, the corresponding HRs of patients in the highest quintile for disease-free survival events, cancer recurrence, and overall mortality were 0.80 (95% CI, 0.56–1.15), 0.76 (95% CI, 0.51–1.11), and 0.77 (95% CI, 0.52–1.14). Conclusions: Higher EDIH was not associated with the risk of colon cancer recurrence or mortality in this population of patients with stage III colon cancer. Impact: EDIH, as a measure of dietary insulinemic potential, may be associated with colon cancer risk but not survival in patients with late-stage colon cancer.

e16076 Background: Median overall survival (mOS) of patients (pt) with metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC) has improved steadily over the past two decades. However, epidemiological data suggest that cancer outcomes for rural compared to urban dwelling pts are worse. In this study, we retrospectively compared progression free survival (PFS) and OS among mCRC pts residing in urban versus rural areas enrolled in N9741 (1997-2004) and CALGB 80405 (2005-2012) clinical trials. Methods: Zip code data from the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) were used to classify pts into rural or urban dwellers. Chi-square and Kruskal Wallis analyses were used to compare the groups. Survival outcomes were evaluated using Kaplan-Meier estimates, compared by stratified log rank and cox proportional hazards models. Results: In N9741 and 80405 respectively, 217 (35%) and 521 (21%) pts resided in rural areas. Median age of mCRC pts at diagnosis was 60.5 yrs. (rural) compared to 58.6 yrs. (urban) in 80405 (P < 0.01) and 59.6 yrs. to 60.2 yrs. in N9741 (P = 0.4). In 80405, pts in rural areas were less likely to be female (35% vs 43%, P < 0.01) black (6.6% vs 15.1%, P < 0.01), unmarried (51% vs 62%, P < 0.01), and to have private insurance (PI) (45% vs 50%, P = 0.03) when compared to pts in urban areas. In N9741, gender (P = 0.8) and PI (P = 0.3) distribution was similar; pts in rural areas were less likely to be black (1.4% vs 9.1%, P < 0.01). Rural vs urban pt PFS was no different in either trial. MOS was worse in pts in rural areas when compared to urban dwellers in 80405 (Table). OS outcomes stratified based on the use of cetuximab based regimen in 80405 showed worse outcomes for pts in rural compared to urban dwellers (21.9 vs 26.3 mo. HR: 1.22 (1.03-1.44), P = 0.02). Conclusions: MCRC pts from rural areas had a significantly worse mOS when compared to pts in urban areas in 80405. Furthermore, mOS with cetuximab based regimens was 4.4 months shorter in rural pts. The observed rural vs urban dweller mOS disparities in 80405 pts justifies additional research searching for causal factors and the necessity to identify actionable approaches in order to improve pt outcomes in rural areas. Support: U10CA180821, U10CA180882, U10CA180888, UG1CA180830; Pfizer, Sanofi, BMS, Genentech, https://acknowledgments.alliancefound.org . ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT00003594, NCT00265850. [Table: see text]