Tebbutt, Niall C.

Abstract Background Unplanned subgroup analyses from several studies have suggested primary tumor sidedness (PTS) as a potential prognostic and predictive parameter in metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC). We aimed to investigate the impact of PTS on outcomes of mCRC patients. Methods PTS data of 9277 mCRC patients from 12 first-line randomized trials in the ARCAD database were pooled. Overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) were assessed using Kaplan-Meier and Cox models adjusting for age, sex, performance status, prior radiation/chemotherapy, and stratified by treatment arm. Predictive value was tested by interaction term between PTS and treatment (cetuximab plus chemotherapy vs chemotherapy alone). All statistical tests were 2-sided. Results Compared with right-sided metastatic colorectal cancer patients (n = 2421, 26.1%), left-sided metastatic colorectal cancer patients (n = 6856, 73.9%) had better OS (median = 21.6 vs 15.9 months; adjusted hazard ratio [HRadj] = 0.71, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.67 to 0.76; P < .001) and PFS (median = 8.6 vs 7.5 months; HRadj = 0.80, 95% CI = 0.75 to 0.84; P < .001). Interaction between PTS and KRAS mutation was statistically significant (Pinteraction < .001); left-sidedness was associated with better prognosis among KRAS wild-type (WT) (OS HRadj = 0.59, 95% CI = 0.53 to 0.66; PFS HRadj =0.68, 95% CI = 0.61 to 0.75) but not among KRAS mutated tumors. Among KRAS-WT tumors, survival benefit from anti-EGFR was confirmed for left-sidedness (OS HRadj = 0.85, 95% CI = 0.75 to 0.97; P = .01; PFS HRadj = 0.77, 95% CI = 0.67 to 0.88; P < .001) but not for right-sidedness. Conclusions The prognostic value of PTS is restricted to the KRAS-WT population. PTS is predictive of anti-EGFR efficacy, with a statistically significant improvement of survival for left-sidedness mCRC patients. These results suggest treatment choice in mCRC should be based on both PTS and KRAS status.

3533 Background: PFS has previously been established as a surrogate for OS based on IPD from first-line mCRC trials conducted before 1999. As mCRC treatment (trt) has advanced in the last decade and OS has increased from 1 to 2 years, this surrogacy required re-examination. Methods: IPD from 16,762 pts, median age 62, 62% male, 53% ECOG PS 0 were available from 22 1st line mCRC studies conducted from 1997-2006; 12 tested targeted (anti-angiogenic and/or anti-EGFR) regimens. The relationship between PFS (first event of progression or death) and OS was evaluated at patient-, trt-arm-, and trial-levels using correlation (corr.) coefficients and R2 (closer to 1 the better) from weighted least square (WLS) regression of arm-specific survival rates and trial-specific hazard ratios (HRs), estimated using Cox and Copula bivariate models. The concordance of significance (CoS) of the treatment effects (TEs) on both endpoints was calculated. Results: 44% pts received a targeted regimen. Median PFS was 8 and OS was18 months. The corr. between PFS and OS was modest at all three levels with low CoS in TE comparisons (see Table). Analyses limited to trials testing targeted trts, non-strategy trials, or superiority trials did not improve surrogacy. Conclusions: In modern mCRC trials, where survival post-first progression exceeds time to first progression, PFS TEs do not reliably predict TEs on OS. Nonetheless, until alternative endpoints of clinical benefit can be validated, PFS remains a relevant primary endpoint for 1st line mCRC trials, as our data demonstrate that the ability for any agent to produce an OS benefit from a single line of therapy is challenging. [Table: see text]

3520 Background: EOTR has been suggested as a potential surrogate for overall survival (OS) in patients (pts) with mCRC and allows early assessment of treatment efficacy, facilitating adaptive trial design. We assessed at the individual patient level, the correlation between EOTR (complete or partial response) at 6, 8 and 12 weeks (wk), OS and progression free survival (PFS) in pts with mCRC treated with 1stline chemotherapy with or without a targeted agent as a first step in a surrogacy demonstration. Methods: IPD from 13,949 pts enrolled on 15 randomized Phase III trials in 1st line mCRC were used; 8 trials included targeted (anti-angiogenic and anti-EGFR) agents. EOTR prognostic value was assessed by landmark analyses using Cox models stratified by treatment assignment. P-values <0.01 were considered statistically significant to account for multiple comparisons. Results: Of 13,949 pts, 11,987 had sufficient response data to be included in the analysis. Median OS was 21.7 months (mo) in pts with an EOTR vs. 16.5 mo without EOTR at 6 wk (p<.0001, Hazard Ratio [HR] 0.64, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.58-0.70, c statistic [c] 0.55). HRs were similar whether pts were treated with targeted therapies (p<.0001, HR 0.68, 95% CI 0.58-0.80, x 0.54) or non-targeted therapies (p<.0001, HR 0.61, 95% CI 0.55-0.69, x 0.55). Median PFS was 8.4 mo in pts with EOTR at 6 wk vs. 7.0 mo in pts without EOTR (p<.0001, HR 0.79, 95% CI 0.73-0.85). EOTR at 8 and 12 wks were also significantly associated with longer OS and PFS. The prognostic value of EOTR at 6, 8 and 12 wks remained significant (p<0.0001) after adjusting for age, gender, performance statusand location of metastatic disease (lung or liver). Overall tumor response (to 26 wk) however provided superior OS prediction (p<.0001, HR 0.51, 95% CI, 0.47-0.56, CS 0.61) vs. EOTR. Conclusions: Early response measured at 6, 8 or 12 wk after starting 1st line treatment was a strong and independent predictor of both OS and PFS in patient with mCRC and warrants further consideration as a potential endpoint for future trials, particularly randomized phase II trials.

3539 Background: Previous studies suggest a possible gender-specific response to Bev in mCRC, showing a benefit in males, while the effect in females is less significant. Therefore, we evaluated response to Bev according to gender. Methods: Data from 3369 mCRC patients enrolled on 4 first-line randomized trials testing Bev (2000-2007) were pooled. Association between gender and progression-free survival (PFS)/overall survival (OS) was evaluated by stratified Cox regression model, adjusted for potential confounders. Predictive value was evaluated by interaction (inter.) effect between gender and treatment. In a pre-planned secondary analysis, analyses were stratified using an age cut-point of 60 years (commonly used in breast cancer trials) to evaluate the possible role of menopausal-related effects. Results: OS was not statistically different between males and females (median OS [mOS], 18.8 vs. 17.6 months [mo], adjusted hazard ratio [HRadj], 0.93, 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.84-1.03, p, 0.15) in the overall population. Bev was associated with an improved mOS in males and females, with a 2.3 and 0.6 mo benefit, respectively, as well as an improved PFS. There was no statistically significant interaction effect between gender and treatment (see table). Further stratified by age (< vs. ≥ 60 years), Bev resulted in improved PFS and OS in both genders, at all ages, except for the effect in young females which did not reach statistical significance (see table). Conclusions: Our results confirmed the mOS benefit from addition of Bev to first-line chemotherapy in mCRC in both genders, although the benefit in females was < 1 month. For females under the age of 60, there are uncertainties for mOS benefit from addition of Bev and further evaluation is needed. [Table: see text]

TPS3619 Background: Cancer stem cells are considered to be fundamentally important for resistance to therapy, recurrence and metastasis. Napabucasin is a first-in-class cancer stemness inhibitor in development identified by its ability to inhibit STAT3-driven gene transcription and spherogenesis of cancer stem cells (Li et al, PNAS 112(6):1839, 2015). Preclinically, napabucasin sensitizes cancer cells to chemotherapeutics, including 5-FU and irinotecan. Encouraging anticancer activity in advanced CRC was observed in a phase Ib/II (Bendell et al, GI ASCO 2017) study of 63 pts with disease control rate (DCR) of 93% (28/30) and overall response rate (ORR) of 33% (10/30) in FOLFIRI-naïve pts who have had an on-study RECIST evaluation. On the basis of these data, a phase III trial is being conducted in North America, Europe, Australia, and Asia. Methods: This study (ClinicalTrials.gov NCT02753127) will assess the efficacy of napabucasin+FOLFIRI vs FOLFIRI in pts with mCRC (n = 1250). Addition of bevacizumab (bev) is permissible per investigator choice. Pts must have failed 1 prior line of therapy with oxaliplatin and a fluoropyrimidine +/- bev for metastatic disease. Pts are randomized 1:1 to receive napabucasin 240 mg PO BID plus FOLFIRI bi-weekly, or FOLFIRI bi-weekly (bev may be added to FOLFIRI by investigator choice) and stratified by geography, time to progression on 1st-line therapy, RAS mutation status, bev as part of study treatment and primary tumor location. Treatment will continue until disease progression, or another discontinuation criterion. Primary endpoint is overall survival (OS) in the general study population (ITT) (HR 0.80 for OS improvement from 12.54 to 15.68 months); secondary endpoints include OS in the biomarker positive (biomarker+) population, progression free survival (PFS) in the ITT population, PFS in biomarker+ population, ORR and DCR in the ITT and in biomarker+ populations, safety and quality of life. Also, blood and tumor archival tissue will be assessed for PK and biomarker analyses. Global enrollment is underway. Clinical trial information: NCT02753127.