Shi, Qian

Predicting the times of milestone events, ie, interim and final analyses in clinical trials, helps resource planning. This manuscript presents and compares several easily implemented methods for predicting when a milestone event is achieved. We show that it is beneficial to combine the predictions from different models to craft a better predictor through prediction synthesis. Furthermore, a Bayesian approach provides a better measure of the uncertainty involved in prediction of milestone events. We compare the methods through two simulations where the model has been correctly specified and where the models are a mixture of three incorrectly specified model classes. We then apply the methods on two real clinical trial data, North Central Cancer Treatment Group (NCCTG) N0147 and N9841. In summary, the Bayesian prediction synthesis methods automatically perform well even when the data collection is far from homogeneous. AnRshiny app is under development to carry out the prediction in a user‐friendly fashion.

Background More than half of the 40,000 incident rectal cancer patients in the United States each year are diagnosed at clinical stage II and III (locally advanced stage). For this group, high rates of cure can be achieved with the combination of pelvic radiation and sensitizing 5-fluorouracil (chemoradiation), surgery and chemotherapy, but treatment is long, arduous and toxicities are substantial. The PROSPECT trial (N1048, NCT01515787) was designed to determine whether neoadjuvant chemotherapy with 5-fluorouracil and oxaliplatin (FOLFOX) could be used as an alternative to neoadjuvant chemoradiation without compromising treatment outcomes and to spare these patients excess toxicity. The statistical design balanced the twin co-primary goals of achieving low local and distant recurrence rates. Study design features contended with the need for stringent safeguards given limited phase II data, the need for straightforward criteria to facilitate both accrual and protocol fidelity and the importance of patients’ perspectives on symptom burden and treatment toxicity. Methods PROSPECT is an ongoing multi-site two-group seamless phase II/III randomized trial comparing standard neoadjuvant chemoradiation versus neoadjuvant chemotherapy with selective use of chemoradiation for patients with locally advanced rectal cancer. Challenges addressed in the design and conduct of PROSPECT have included the following: (1) setting safety thresholds given limited single-center phase II data, (2) establishing workable eligibility criteria, (3) balancing competing time to local and distant recurrence as co-primary endpoints and (4) obtaining reliable and complete data for patients’ symptom burden. The design and implementation challenges, choices, modifications and their implications for the design of future national cooperative group clinical trials are presented. Results PROSPECT incorporated stringent thresholds for both complete surgical resection (R0) and the time to local recurrence as early stopping rules. When predetermined stopping criteria were not met after evaluation of the first 366 participants in the randomized phase II, the study transitioned seamlessly to phase III with cumulative accrual of over 1000 participants. Eligibility criteria stipulating rectal tumor location based on distance from the anal verge were unworkable, and the protocol was amended to a more pragmatic approach that assigned surgeons with primary responsibility for determining eligibility. Central radiology review was feasible and in some cases prompted discontinuation of protocol treatment. Participation in toxicity reporting using the National Cancer Institute’s Patient-Reported Outcomes Version of the Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events was uniformly high and was well accepted by participants from over 200 sites in the United States, Canada and Switzerland. Conclusion The strategies used to overcome these obstacles may inform the design of other studies that involve multi-modality treatment interventions, particularly trials where implementation of consistent criteria for eligibility and outcomes across hundreds of practice settings is necessary.

Marine omega‐3 polyunsaturated fatty acids (MO3PUFAs) have anticancer properties and may improve colon cancer survival. However, it remains unknown whether the benefit differs by tumor molecular subtype. We examined data from a phase III randomized trial of FOLFOX or FOLFOX + cetuximab among 1,735 stage III colon cancer patients who completed a dietary questionnaire at enrollment. Multivariable hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated for the association between MO3PUFA and disease‐free survival (DFS) and overall survival according toKRASandBRAFV600Emutations and DNA mismatch repair (MMR) status. Higher MO3PUFA intake was associated with improved 3‐year DFS forKRASwild‐type tumors (77%vs. 73%; HR: 0.84; 95% CI: 0.67–1.05) but notKRAS‐mutant tumors (64%vs. 70%; HR: 1.30; 95% CI: 0.97–1.73;Pinteraction= 0.02). Similar heterogeneity was found by MMR (Pinteraction= 0.14): higher MO3PUFA was associated with better 3‐year DFS for tumors with deficient MMR (72%vs. 67%) but not proficient MMR (72%vs. 72%). No heterogeneity was found byBRAFV600Emutation. Similar findings were obtained for overall survival. In conclusion, we found a suggestive beneficial association between higher MO3PUFA intake and improved survival among stage III colon cancer patients with wild‐typeKRASand deficient MMR. Given the relatively small number of cases with tumor molecular assessments, further studies, preferably through pooled analyses of multiples cohorts, are needed to validate our findings.

Abstract Purpose: Colorectal cancers with deficient DNA mismatch repair (dMMR) are presumed to uniformly have dense lymphocytic infiltration that underlies their favorable prognosis and is critical to their responsiveness to immunotherapy, as compared with MMR-proficient (pMMR) tumors. We examined T-cell densities and their potential heterogeneity in a large cohort of dMMR tumors. Experimental Design: CD3+ and CD8+ T-cell densities were quantified at the invasive margin (IM) and tumor core (CT) in 561 stage III colon cancers (dMMR, n = 278; pMMR, n = 283) from a phase III adjuvant trial (N0147). Their association with overall survival (OS) was determined using multivariable Cox analysis. Results: Although CD3+ and CD8+ T-cell densities in the tumor microenvironment were higher in dMMR versus pMMR tumors overall, intertumoral heterogeneity in densities between tumors was significantly higher by 30% to 88% among dMMR versus pMMR cancers (P < 0.0001 for all four T-cell subtypes [CD3+IM, CD3+CT, CD8+IM, CD8+CT]). A substantial proportion of dMMR tumors (26% to 35% depending on the T-cell subtype) exhibited T-cell densities as low as that in the bottom half of pMMR tumors. All four T-cell subtypes were prognostic in dMMR with CD3+IM being the most strongly prognostic. Low (vs. high) CD3+IM was independently associated with poorer OS among dMMR (HR, 4.76; 95% confidence interval, 1.43–15.87; P = 0.0019) and pMMR tumors (P = 0.0103). Conclusions: Tumor-infiltrating T-cell densities exhibited greater intertumoral heterogeneity among dMMR than pMMR colon cancers, with CD3+IM providing robust stratification of both dMMR and pMMR tumors for prognosis. Potentially, lower T-cell densities among dMMR tumors may contribute to immunotherapy resistance.

Purpose The US National Cancer Institute (NCI) Patient-Reported Outcomes version of the Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events (PRO-CTCAE) was developed to enable patient reporting of symptomatic adverse events in oncology clinical research. This study was designed to assess the feasibility and resource requirements associated with implementing PRO-CTCAE in a multicenter trial. Methods Patients with locally advanced rectal cancer enrolled in the National Cancer Institute–sponsored North Central Cancer Treatment Group (Alliance) Preoperative Radiation or Selective Preoperative Radiation and Evaluation before Chemotherapy and Total Mesorectal Excision trial were asked to self-report 30 PRO-CTCAE items weekly from home during preoperative therapy, and every 6 months after surgery, via either the Web or an automated telephone system. If participants did not self-report within 3 days, a central coordinator called them to complete the items. Compliance was defined as the proportion of participants who completed PRO-CTCAE assessments at expected time points. Results The prespecified PRO-CTCAE analysis was conducted after the 500th patient completed the 6-month follow-up (median age, 56 years; 33% female; 12% nonwhite; 43% high school education or less; 5% Spanish speaking), across 165 sites. PRO-CTCAE was reported by participants at 4,491 of 4,882 expected preoperative time points (92.0% compliance), of which 3,771 (77.2%) were self-reported by participants and 720 (14.7%) were collected via central coordinator backup. Compliance at 6-month post-treatment follow-up was 333 of 468 (71.2%), with 122 (26.1%) via backup. Site research associates spent a median of 15 minutes on PRO-CTCAE work for each patient visit. Work by a central coordinator required a 50% time commitment. Conclusion Home-based reporting of PRO-CTCAE in a multicenter trial is feasible, with high patient compliance and low site administrative requirements. PRO-CTCAE data capture is improved through centralized backup calls.

Purpose Overall survival (OS) is the definitive and best-established primary efficacy end point to evaluate diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) therapies, but it requires prolonged follow-up. An earlier end point assessed post-treatment would expedite clinical trial conduct and accelerate patient access to effective new therapies. Our objective was to formally evaluate progression-free survival (PFS) and PFS at 24 months (PFS24) as surrogate end points for OS in first-line DLBCL. Patients and Methods Individual patient data were analyzed from 7,507 patients from 13 multicenter randomized controlled trials of active treatment in previously untreated DLBCL, published after 2002, with sufficient PFS data to predict treatment effects on OS. Trial-level surrogacy examining the correlation of treatment effect estimates of PFS/PFS24 and OS was evaluated using both linear regression ( R2WLS) and Copula bivariable ( R2Copula) models. Prespecified criteria for surrogacy required either R2WLS or R2Copula ≥ 0.80 and neither < 0.7, with lower-bound 95% CI > 0.60. Results Trial-level surrogacy for PFS was strong ( R2WLS = 0.83; R2Copula = 0.85) and met the predefined criteria for surrogacy. At the patient level, PFS strongly correlated with OS. The surrogate threshold effect had a hazard ratio of 0.89. Surrogacy was consistent across comparisons with or without rituximab and with rituximab maintenance trials. Trial-level surrogacy for PFS24 was relatively strong ( R2WLS = 0.77; R2Copula = 0.78) but did not meet prespecified criteria. At the patient level, PFS24 significantly correlated with OS. The surrogate threshold effect had an odds ratio of 1.51. Conclusion This large pooled analysis of individual patient data supports PFS as a surrogate end point for OS in future randomized controlled trials evaluating chemoimmunotherapy in DLBCL. Use of this end point may expedite therapeutic development with the intent of bringing novel therapies to this patient population years before OS results are mature.