Jacobsen, Steven J.

Abstract Objectives To characterize the presentation and outcome of patients with heart failure (HF) after myocardial infarction (MI) according to left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) and test the hypothesis that the outcome of HF did not change over time. Background Little is known about the presentation and outcome of HF post-MI and how these may have changed over time. Methods Using the Rochester Epidemiology Project, all residents of Olmsted County, Minnesota who experienced an incident MI between 1979 and 1998 were identified; MI and HF were validated using standardized criteria. Subjects were followed through their community medical record. Results Between 1979 and 1998, 1915 patients with incident MI and no prior history of HF were identified. Of these, 791(41%) experienced new onset HF as defined by Framingham criteria during 6.6±5.0 years of follow-up. Forty-seven percent were men, mean age was 73±12 years. Forty-four percent had impaired LVEF, 18% preserved LVEF and 38% had no LVEF measurement within 60 days after the HF event. Median survival after HF onset was 4 years and at 5 years after HF onset, only 45% were alive. Older age, male sex, comorbidity, hypertension and no LVEF assessment were associated with increased risk of death, however, patients with impaired LVEF had the worst outcome. Over time, survival did not improve (HR for year: 1.00; 95% CI 0.99, 1.02; P=0.919) even after adjustment for baseline characteristics. Conclusion In this geographically defined cohort of patients with MI, new onset HF after the MI was frequent. When measured, LVEF was most frequently reduced, consistent with systolic heart failure. Mortality was high and did not decline over time and death was independently associated with male sex, older age, hypertension and comorbidity. It also differed according to LVEF, which was inconsistently ascertained in this setting, potentially representing practice opportunities.

Background— Preclinical systolic or diastolic dysfunction is associated with increased morbidity and mortality. We postulated that plasma brain natriuretic peptide (BNP) might serve as a biomarker for preclinical ventricular dysfunction (PCVD) but that the discriminatory values for BNP may vary with age and sex. Methods and Results— We measured BNP, systolic and diastolic ventricular function, and clinical parameters in 2042 randomly selected residents of Olmsted County, Minn, aged 45 years or older. For preclinical systolic dysfunction, the areas under the receiver operating characteristics curve were higher for those with more severe (0.82 to 0.92) than any (0.51 to 0.74) systolic dysfunction and were similar in men and women and in younger and older persons. For preclinical diastolic dysfunction, the areas under the receiver operating characteristics curve were higher for those with moderate-to-severe (0.74 to 0.79) than any (0.52 to 0.68) diastolic dysfunction and were similar regardless of age or sex. Optimal discriminatory values of BNP varied with age and sex. Considering the prevalence of preclinical systolic or diastolic dysfunction and the predictive characteristics observed, using BNP to screen for PCVD would necessitate echo in 10% to 40% of those screened, with most confirmatory echocardiograms being negative, and would miss 10% to 60% of those affected. Conclusions— BNP is a suboptimal screening test for PCVD in the population.

Subacute thyroiditis (SAT), or granulomatous thyroiditis, is an inflammatory thyroid condition associated with pain and systemic symptoms. Few community studies are available. We studied the 160 patients with SAT in Olmsted County, Minnesota, seen between January 1, 1960, and December 30, 1997. Subjects were identified through the medical diagnostic index of the Rochester Epidemiology Project. The overall age- and sex-adjusted incidence from 1960 through 1997 was 4.9 cases per 100,000/yr. In the most recent 28-yr period (1970–1997), 94 patients were identified. In this group, pain was the presenting symptom in 96%. SAT recurred in 4% of the patients 6–21 yr after the initial episode. Corticosteroid therapy was given to 36%. Early-onset hypothyroidism occurred both in patients receiving corticosteroid therapy (29%) and in those not receiving corticosteroid therapy (37%). At latest follow-up, significantly more patients who had received corticosteroid therapy had a diagnosis of hypothyroidism than the group without corticosteroid therapy (25% vs. 10%, P < 0.05; overall rate of hypothyroidism, 15%). Early transient hypothyroidism is common in SAT. Permanent hypothyroidism is less common, and only 15% of the patients are receiving T4 therapy after 28 yr of follow-up. Symptomatic relief is achieved with corticosteroid therapy, but such therapy does not prevent early- and late-onset thyroid dysfunction.

Background— Several scores, most of which were derived from clinical trials, have been proposed for stratifying risk after myocardial infarctions (MIs). Little is known about their generalizability to the community, their respective advantages, and whether the ejection fraction (EF) adds prognostic information to the scores. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction (TIMI) and Predicting Risk of Death in Cardiac Disease Tool (PREDICT) scores in a geographically defined MI cohort and determine the incremental value of EF for risk stratification. Methods and Results— MIs occurring in Olmsted County were validated with the use of standardized criteria and stratified with the ECG into ST-segment elevation (STEMI) and non–ST-segment elevation (NSTEMI) MI. Logistic regression examined the discriminant accuracy of the TIMI and PREDICT scores to predict death and recurrent MI and assessed the incremental value of the EF. After 6.3±4.7 years, survival was similar for the 562 STEMIs and 717 NSTEMIs. The discriminant accuracy of the TIMI score was good in STEMI but only fair in NSTEMI. Across time and end points, irrespective of reperfusion therapy, the discriminant accuracy of the PREDICT score was consistently superior to that of the TIMI scores, largely because PREDICT includes comorbidity; EF provided incremental information over that provided by the scores and comorbidity. Conclusion— In the community, comorbidity and EF convey important prognostic information and should be included in approaches for stratifying risk after MI.